Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 260531

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1231 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.


The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal area of Africa near
09N13W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 02S50W.
Isolated showers prevail within 50 nm on either side of the ITCZ
between 30W-40W.



A frontal system extends across the basin, analyzed as a cold
front from 29N83W to 25N90W then as a dissipating stationary front
from that point to 23N96W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate northerly winds north of the fronts while light to gentle
southerly winds prevail south of the front. A surface trough
extends over the Bay of Campeche from 21N96W to 19N92W. A surface
ridge is building in the wake of the cold front across the
northern half of the basin. The cold front is expected to move
SE through the Gulf overnight as the high pressure continues building
eastward across the southern U.S. Return southeasterly flow
begins over the Gulf W of 90W by Sunday afternoon and spreads
over most of the Gulf through early Monday.


A sharp mid-to-upper level trough passes through the eastern Cuba
and into the SW corner of the basin. At the surface, a trough was
analyzed from 19N81W to 17N84W with isolated showers. Very strong
subsidence was noted in the wake of the trough and elsewhere over
the basin east of 80W. A weak surface ridge extended from 20N60W
through the northern Leeward Islands to 15N75W. This ridge
maintained sub-normal trade winds over the basin, generally
around 10 kt. The trade winds should begin to increase on Sunday
as high pressure builds north of the area, with strong winds
likely within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia on Sunday night into


Water vapor imagery indicated very dry air/strong subsidence over
the entire island. Little change in the overall conditions is
anticipated through the remainder of the weekend.


A deep layer trough extends through 32N66W to the SE Bahamas,
through eastern Cuba, then into the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. This trough is providing limited support to a pair of surface
troughs that extend from 31N65W to 27N68W and from 31N62W to
28N63W. A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N40W to
24N54W. No significant convection is observed at this time with
these features. The remainder of the basin is under the influence
of a surface ridge anchored by a pair of surface highs centered
near 37N44W and 33N24W. Expect for the troughs and front to
continue weakening through the next 24 hours. A new cold front
will enter the west Atlantic today enhancing winds/seas.

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