Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 161105
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Mar 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Guinea and Sierra Leone, then reaches southwestward to 03N19W. The
ITCZ then continues from 03N19W to 00S30W to 01S45W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 04S to 02N W of 16W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong thundertorms are coming off the coast of Texas into the NW
Gulf waters this morning with the potential of generating gust to
gale force winds through the early afternoon hours. Upper level
diffluent flow support this area of convection. This area of
convection is also associated with a stationary front that extends
from SE Louisiana to southern Texas. A pair of surface troughs are
ahead of the front W of 90W while weak surface ridging continue to
influence the eastern half of the Gulf. Except for the far NE
waters that are under the influence of a surface trough and the
area of convection in the NW Gulf, gentle to moderate E to SE
dominate the basin along with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, high pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic will continue to move eastward across the
Atlantic through Mon, yet maintain a lingering ridge westward over
the western Atlantic and into the central Gulf through Sun.
Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are expected over the
southern basin through early Sun. Fresh to locally strong winds
will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening and into the early morning hours. A cold front will move
into the NW Gulf Sun night and gradually shift S of the basin by
Tue evening. Increasing wind and seas are expected behind the
front Sun night through Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between subtropical ridging N of the area
and low pressure over NW Colombia continue to support fresh to
near gale force winds in the south-central Caribbean and moderate
to fresh speeds elsewhere. Seas are moderate in the 5-7 ft range
over most of the region, except for rough seas to 10 ft off the
coast of Colombia. Otherwise, aside from the Gulf of Honduras,
gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas are ongoing over
the NW basin.

For the forecast, high pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic waters will slide eastward across the eastern
subtropical Atlantic over the weekend. The lingering ridge will
support fresh to strong winds across the south-central and
portions of the southeast Caribbean through Tue. Afterward, winds
will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds and prevail through the
remainder forecast period, except for strong winds developing at
night off Colombia. Otherwise, fresh trade winds will pulse to
strong speeds across the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage,
and S of Hispaniola through early Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface
ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high near 29N53W. The ridge is crossed
by a cold front over the E subtropical Atlantic, which extends
from 30N27W to 23N40W. The ridge is providing mainly gentle to
moderate NE to E winds S of 23N. Otherwise, the gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure associated with a frontal boundary N
of the area is suppoting fresh to locally strong SW winds N of
29W along with moderate seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic will slide eastward and into the eastern
Atlantic through Mon before becoming nearly stationary. A broad
associated ridge will persist westward across the area through
Mon. A cold front will enter the offshore waters of NE Florida
early on Mon morning, reach from near Bermuda through the central
Bahamas by Tue morning and move to central Atlantic waters by Thu
morning. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected N of the
Bahamas and ahead of the front Sun night through Tue night, while
fresh to near gale-force NW to N winds will follow the front Mon
night through Tue evening.

$$
Ramos


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