Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 271100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 79W W OF A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 27N73W TO
22N77W. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N13W TO 03N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N33W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE 01S-04N BETWEEN 20W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N96W. SW UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN...BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC
TO THE AREA. DESPITE THIS...THE GULF REMAINS CONVECTION FREE AS
THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED
THROUGH ON MONDAY PREVAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 28N83W TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N77W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF EXCEPT W OF 94W WHERE A
LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SE
CONUS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE W IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM 16N80W TO THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR 23N72W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE BOUNDARY. A SHEAR
LINE EXTENDS S OF THIS TROUGH FROM 12N83W TO 16N80W. TO THE
W...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS CUBA AND
THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 20N87W TO 22N80W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 77W WITH
ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS. TO THE W OF 77W...A
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT
FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONT AS IT MOVES E ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS W CUBA. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO 29N79W. A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO OVER THE W ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 23N78W TO 31N68W. TO THE
E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 23N72W TO 31N64W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 57W-68W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA NEAR THESE FRONTS
AND A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FROM 24N48W TO 27N47W. A STATIONARY 1041 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N25W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE E AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO DISSIPATE. THE
FRONTS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WILL MERGE AND THE NEW BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



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