Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 160601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is along 31N78W to 29N81w. SW gale-force winds and
sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 12 feet, are to the north of
29N to the east of the front to 75W. Expect these conditions for
the next 24 hours or so. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through 11N15W in Guinea-Bissau, to
04N16W, to 01N23W. The ITCZ continues from 01N23W, crossing the
equator along 25W, to 01S29W, crossing the equator along 33W, to
02N43W. A surface trough is along 45W/46W from 07N southward.
Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 06N southward from 52W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level-to-upper level SW-to-W wind flow is moving through
the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level atmospheric support for the
current cold front that is in the area is in the Atlantic Ocean,
from North Carolina to the NW Bahamas. A trough from 600 mb to 800
mb passes through NE Florida to 24N86W and 23N93W. A cold front
extends from a 1003 mb Atlantic Ocean low pressure center that is
near 31N80W, across Florida near 28N82W, to the south central Gulf
of Mexico, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. The front is
stationary, inland, from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec to 25N101W.
A surface trough extends from the Florida Keys, through the NE
corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, into northern Guatemala.
A surface ridge extends from a Texas 1021 mb high pressure center
that is near 33N99W, to a 1020 mb high pressure center that is
near 23N97W, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from the Straits of Florida, just
to the west of Andros Island, across the Florida Keys, into the
Yucatan Channel, to the SE part of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the Atlantic Ocean
from 30N northward between 68W and 75W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KMDJ, KGRY, and KIKT.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

from TEXAS to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: MVFR in Brooksville, Punta
Gorda, and Ft. Myers. Light rain in the Key West metropolitan
area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire
Caribbean Sea. High level clouds are moving through the NW corner,
across the Greater Antilles, and moving from South America into
the eastern half of the Caribbean Sea.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery elsewhere across the area.

Rainshowers are possible to the east of 70W, and from 16N
northward from 70W westward.

24-HOUR rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 16/0000 UTC...
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.01 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level to upper level W wind flow is moving across the
area. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water
vapor imagery across Hispaniola. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible inland, and in the waters that surround
Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, at 16/0000 UTC:
VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona, at 16/0000 UTC, VFR.
Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. La Romana/Punta Cana:
VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling: 1600 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during most of the 48-hour forecast period.
W-to-NW wind flow will move across the area during the last 6
hours to 12 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that
day one will start with SW wind flow, becoming W and then NW wind
flow, and then solidly NW wind flow, until the last 6 hours to 12
hours of the 48-hour forecast period. An anticyclonic circulation
center will move on top of Hispaniola during the last 6 hours to
12 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that broad
anticyclonic wind flow will cover Hispaniola for the next 36 hours
or so, followed by N-to-NE wind flow at the end of the 48-hour
forecast period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is about 900 nm to the west of Africa.
The trough is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N39W
to 27N48W. The front is dissipating stationary from 27N48W to
26N55W, and dissipating warm from 26N55W to 28N65W. A surface
trough also is along 27N44W 24N48W 21N53W. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N
northward between 40W and 70W.

A cold front, that is lagging behind its upper level support that
already is in Africa, extends from a 1017 mb low pressure center
that is near 30N18W, across the Canary Islands, to 23N20W. The
cold front is dissipating from 23N20W to 20N30W. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 18N northward
between Africa and 40W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N27W to 27N33W, to a 1022 mb high
pressure center that is near 24N41W. A 1022 mb high pressure
center is near 28N53W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
area that is to the north of the frontal boundary between 40W and
65W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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