Tropical Weather Discussion
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350
AXNT20 KNHC 291056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE 24 HOURS THAT FOLLOW
THE FORECAST THAT IS VALID UNTIL 30/1200 UTC CONSISTS OF...
NORTHEASTERLY NEAR GALE LOCALLY GALE IN AGADIR AND CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 05N16W AND 04N26W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 04N26W
04N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 05W AND 12W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO
01N BETWEEN 10W AND 11W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE POINTS FROM 03N46W TO 03N52W
TO 08N60W TO 03N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS FROM 28N
SOUTHWARD FROM 87W WESTWARD.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS
FROM 90W EASTWARD. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KDLP....KMIS...AND KMDJ.

IFR CONDITIONS...KVBS...KVQT...KEIR...AND KSPR.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG....KBBF...KBQX...KXIH...KGLS...KHHV...
KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGHB...AND KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR AND SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
TEXAS. LOUISIANA...LIFR IN BOOTHVILLE. MVFR IS MIXED WITH IFR
ELSEWHERE. MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ALABAMA...IFR IN GULF
SHORES. MVFR IN EVERGREEN. FLORIDA...MVFR IN DESTIN. LIFR IN THE
PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...IN MARIANNA...AND IN
APALACHICOLA. IFR IN PERRY. LIFR IN BROOKSVILLE. MVFR AT THE
TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT.

...FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 64W...FROM THE ISLANDS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 17N TO
21N BETWEEN 62W AND 73W... INCLUDING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 20N IN HAITI TO 24N IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA...CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...NO NEW OBSERVATIONS ARE AVAILABLE SINCE
THE LAST TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 30 TO 36 HOURS OR SO. A
TROUGH WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME
AFTER THAT. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL
START WITH A TROUGH FROM CUBA TO JAMAICA...AND SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO.
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N31W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 20W AND 45W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N31W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 33N29W AND 30N26W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
30N26W TO 22N30W 18N40W 18N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N TO 32N
BETWEEN 27W AND 341W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE REST OF THE COLD FRONT.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 64W FROM 20N BEYOND 32N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN
62W AND 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N54W 29N55W 25N54W
22N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N TO
29N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N61W
26N62W 24N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.
A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N71W 24N75W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N69W 29N72W 26N73W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.04 IN
BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... TO 13N34W AND
13N48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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