Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 201151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS
LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II...AT 20/1015 UTC...FOR THE
SECTIONS THAT ARE TITLED...IRVING...AND MADEIRA. GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. THE WMO HEADER FOR THIS
FORECAST BY METEO-FRANCE IS FQNT50 LFPW. THE WEB ADDRESS FOR
METEO-FRANCE IS WWW.METEO.FR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N
BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 38W AND 46W...FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 43W AND 46W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 18N43W. SOME
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS RELATED ONLY TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND
SOME IS IN THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 12N22W AND 8N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 8N25W TO 6N30W AND 9N43W TOWARD THE TROPICAL WAVE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 1N
TO 9N BETWEEN 24W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF...BEYOND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO TEXAS.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM
25N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA RIDGE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 87W EASTWARD.

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19.5N 95.5W. THE LOW CENTER IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE
COAST OF MEXICO TO 23N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 90W AND THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
WESTERN CUBA AND 92W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KOPM...KMZG...
KEMK...KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...KSPR...KGRY...KIPN...KIKT...AND
KVOA.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

ROCKPORT TEXAS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. VISIBILITIES
OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT PASCAGOULA
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. A LOW CLOUD
CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN PERRY FLORIDA. A VISIBILITY OF 2
MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE
AIRPORT. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN FORT
MYERS. HEAVY RAIN IS BEING REPORTED AT MARATHON KEY. THE KEY
WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD
CEILING.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N70W TO 25N73W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS
AROUND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SIX HOURS AGO NOW IS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 70W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...IN SURFACE-
TO-LOW LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.22 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N72W IN COLOMBIA...AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD TO PANAMA...WESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA...AND BEYOND
THE SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. NUMEROUS STRONG ON TOP OF
LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND IN THE COLOMBIA
COASTAL WATERS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS
AROUND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SIX HOURS AGO NOW IS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 70W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED AT PUERTO
PLATA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...SOME ARE
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...ARE BEING REPORTED AT OTHER OBSERVING
SITES ACROSS THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO. THE TROUGH THAT WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE EASTWARD.
A RIDGE WILL END UP ACROSS THE AREA BY 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WEAK CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 30 TO
36 HOURS. AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN EAST-TO-WEST
ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO
25N73W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 29N70W TO 28N77W. THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 28N77W AND IT CONTINUES TO THE EASTERN
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND PARTS OF CUBA...TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W 27N65W
23N70W 22N76W...ACROSS CUBA TO 23N85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 29N89W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N63W 29N70W 29N81W...IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 23N
BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM HISPANIOLA TO 27N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE NORTHERN SIDE.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 27N54W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 32N BETWEEN 42W AND 60W. SOME OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS EVIDENT FROM 10N TO 20N IS THE RESULT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW THAT IS CROSSING 60W FROM THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...CONTINUING INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND BEING
CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE 27N54W CYCLONIC CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
30N52W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N54W...
TO 23N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 23N
TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 26N44W...
AND FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 49W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N42W 20N38W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N22W TO
24N23W AND 9N29W. THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W...ACROSS THE
CANARY ISLANDS...TO 24N20W AND 20N28W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N28W TO 21N34W AND 30N48W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W
AND 25W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N11W 24N16W 19N28W 20N40W 32N49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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