Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 011803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF 1500 UTC A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N95W TO
22N95W TO THE SURFACE LOW TO S MEXICO AT 18N92W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 88W-97W. THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NW OVER THE GULF WATERS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
TODAY AND TUESDAY...AND ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N23W
TO 7N26W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA FROM 3N-16N E OF 29W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N40W TO 10N44W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA FROM 6N-16N
BETWEEN 40W-50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 44W-48W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N57W TO 10N59W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 55W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N68W TO 10N68W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
6N20W TO 5N31W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N31W TO 10N45W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 16W-27W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1009 MB LOW AND TROUGH IS OVER OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 32N. 10-15 KT
SE SURFACE WINDS COVERS THE GULF NE OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE.
CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 22N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S LOUISIANA
...THE CENTRAL GULF...THE SE GULF...AND S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF
NEAR 28N94W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SE GULF NEAR
23N88W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SPECIAL FEATURE
LOW TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND W GULF W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 83W-87W.
TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 10N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER E CUBA...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND HONDURAS. SIMILAR
SHOWERS ARE OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CENTER BAHAMAS
AT 24N74W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTER TO JAMAICA.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
20N62W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO
MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER HAITI DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NW OF THE ISLAND. ALSO
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION MOSTLY S OF
THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N55W. OF NOTE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N74W
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE CENTER PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 63W-70W.
ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N30W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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