Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 151041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 26.9N 54.5W AT 15/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 626 NM E-SE OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 13
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS
MAINLY NW OF THE CENTER FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 52W-57W. SCATTERED
TSTMS ARE NE OF EDOUARD FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 46W-51W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
16N22W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N22W TO 8N22W...MOVING WEST AT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND IS ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY DEPICT SOME DRY AIR IN
THE WAY ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 22W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
18N42W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 16N42W TO 8N43W...MOVING WEST AT 20
KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. SAHARAN DRY AIR IS IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS
LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N-18N WITHIN
100 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS S MEXICO...GUATEMALA AND E PAC
WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 92W AND MOVING W AT 20 KT. MODERATE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE THAT IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN S
OF 21N WEST OF 81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO
A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N22W TO 10N35W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N36W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 7N59W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 30W-41W...AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...ACROSS SE LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF
ALONG 29N91W SW TO SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS ACROSS THE BASIN AS
AN INVERTED TROUGH DOMINATES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN. TROUGHINESS ALOFT SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
27N92W TO 18N94W AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALREADY DISCUSSED IN THE
WAVES SECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 26N WEST OF
85W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SW BASIN MONDAY
WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT THAT
WILL STALL INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF MON NIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MAINLY MODERATE MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
BASIN AS WELL AS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH A
NARROW REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCES SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ON SW HAITI AND COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ON
THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 21N W OF 81W. ON THE SW CARIBBEAN...A 1011
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED NEAR 10N79W...WHICH IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 15N
BETWEEN 72W-84W. A TONGUE OF DRY AIR ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON
WEDNESDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A
REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN CUBA AND THE ISLAND
ENHANCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS SW HAITI AND ADJACENT WATERS.
BESIDES THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS INDUCED BY DAYTIME
HEATING...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE EDOUARD AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES
ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES
SECTIONS ABOVE. OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON THE SW N
ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N68W ALONG WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN THE REGION SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
23N-27N BETWEEN 68W-70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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