000
AXNT20 KNHC 020550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 2 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
14N17W TO 06N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N25W TO 04N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 26W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR
19N100W IS SUPPORTING RELATIVELY DRY N-NW FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDINESS
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OVER THE COASTAL
GULF PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE SE U.S.
TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER ALABAMA. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS LATER TODAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF TONIGHT AND TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF THEN SPREAD EASTWARD WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET AND TRANQUIL
UNDER MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE W-SW AND DIFFLUENT OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH 67W-68W IS GENERATING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS E OF 68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FOUND IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. A
FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH WED
WITH TRADE WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

...HISPANIOLA...
RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ARE
MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF THE MONA PASSAGE WHICH ARE DRIFTING
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE E OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS INDICATED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 23N67W TO 20N70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG
67W EXTENDING TO NEAR 20N IS SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 30N64W SW TO 27N70W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH MARGINAL DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 21N BETWEEN
52W-68W. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM 1017 MB
LOW NEAR 32N80W TO THE COAST OF S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. COASTAL
RADARS SHOW FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN EXTENSIVE UPPER CLOUDINESS.
A DEEP LAYER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N26W SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA
OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MERGE
AND CONSOLIDATE N OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 34N25W LATER TODAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N BETWEEN 16W-26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL