Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 222349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
749 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 20N16W to 09N20W moving west at
10-15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between
10W-22W. A 1008 mb broad surface low is centered near 16N20W.
Isolated showers are observed inland to the east of the wave`s
axis.

A tropical wave extends from 15N40W to a 1011 mb surface low near
09N42W to 06N41W, moving west at 10-15 kt. A broad 700 mb
troughing is noted between 40W- 48W with 850 mb relative vorticity
coinciding with the surface low circulation. Isolated moderate
convection is from 00N- 10N between 40W-49W.

A tropical wave extends from 13N58W to 04N60W moving west at
10-15 kt. The wave is moving within the southern periphery of a
700 mb low centered E of the Lesser Antilles near 13N60W. Subtle
and broad low to middle level troughing is noted between 56W-65W
with a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity occurring across
portions of Guyana. Isolated moderate convection is south of 08N
between 58W-61W.

A tropical wave extends from 20N82W to 10N84W moving west at
15-20 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between
77W and is within the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge
anchored over the west Atlantic. The wave is also moving within
the influence of an upper-level low centered over the western
Caribbean Sea near 16N85W. Scattered moderate convection is from
13N-20N between 78W-82W while isolated showers prevail along the
remainder of the wave. This convection is more closely related to
the upper-level dynamics in place over the region.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 09N21W to 06N26W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N26W to 07N40W then
resumes west of a tropical wave from 06N45W to 05N52W. Aside from
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered showers
are near the ITCZ between 47W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Cindy is moving inland across eastern Texas
and will continue moving northeast across the States. The eastern
portion of a surface trough extends across eastern Mexico and the
western Gulf mainly west of 92W. A surface ridge extends across
the eastern portion of the basin mainly east of 89W from the
Atlantic. A line of isolated showers prevails along 90W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate southerly winds across the
basin. During the next 24-48 hours, a tropical wave will approach
the Yucatan Channel and Peninsula. With this and the support of
an upper-level low currently over the western Caribbean, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected over this area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is centered across the western Caribbean near
16N84W supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across much
of Central America and the Caribbean waters generally west of 77W.
The presence of a tropical wave along 84W and the Monsoon Trough
axis along 10N across Costa Rica are also providing additional
focus for this convective activity. The upper-level low is
expected to move northwest toward the southwest Gulf of Mexico by
Saturday with the tropical wave moving westward into the East
Pacific waters during the weekend. Increased probability of
convection and precipitation is expected across Central America
and southern Mexico through this period. The remainder of the
basin is under the influence of moderate to fresh trades.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly clear skies prevail currently across the island as surface
ridging to the north across the west Atlantic remains in place
providing mostly fair weather conditions. In addition, an upper-
level anticyclone centered over the island is continuing to
provide an environment of overall subsidence.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level anticyclonic circulation is centered offshore of
NE Florida and the Georgia coast near 31N80W that continues to
support a 1022 mb high centered southwest of Bermuda near 30N66W.
Gentle to moderate winds are prevailing within the southern
periphery of the ridging. Occasional fresh easterly winds were
captured by scatterometer earlier today south of 21N between 71W-
74W...impacting the approach to the Windward Passage and along
the northern coast of Hispaniola. Otherwise...the remainder of the
central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of surface
ridging anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 34N48W. Water
vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper-level low is centered
near 29N53W and is inducing a weak 1018 mb low centered near
25N54W and surface troughing extending northeast of the low to
28N53W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring near the
low.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA



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