Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 260009

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.


As of 25/2100 UTC, a 1011 mb low is centered N of the Mona
Passage near 20N68W. A gale is well N of the center from 24N to
26N between 65W and 69W with NE to E winds 30 to 35 KT. Seas are
13 to 16 ft. Gale conditions are forecast through the next 48
hours, with higher intensification thereafter. The low will
track N then NE over the next 48 hours. Please see the latest
High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
03N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 03N18W
to 00N30W to the South American coast near 03S40W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm of the ITCZ axis.



As of 25/2100 UTC, a cold front is along the coast o f Texas
from Houston to Corpus Christi, moving E. The front is mostly
void of convection. A prefrontal squall line extends from S
Mississippi near 31N88W to SE Louisiana near 29N90W to 28N93W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the squall
line. Elsewhere, 15 kt SE to S winds are over the Gulf of Mexico
with high pressure return flow. Radar imagery shows scattered
showers over S Florida. In the upper levels, the base of an
upper level trough is over the north central Gulf with upper
level moisture. Elsewhere, zonal flow with subsidence is over
the Gulf. Expect in 24 hours for the front to dissipate, and a
1021 mb high to develop over N Florida.


A surface trough extends S from the low near 20N68W to the south
central Caribbean near 14N71W. Scattered showers are over the E
Caribbean within 300 nm E of the trough. Scattered showers are
also over Hispaniola, Jamaica, and E Cuba. Mostly fair weather
is over the remainder of the Caribbean and Central America. In
the upper levels, the base of an upper level trough is over the
central Caribbean. Upper level diffluence is E of this trough
enhancing the showers over the E Caribbean. Expect in 24 hours
for the surface trough to lift N of the Caribbean, but low level
moisture in the form of scattered showers will persist over the
E Caribbean.


Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola. The low and
surface trough will be E of the island over the next 24 hours,
however, low level moisture in the form of scattered showers
will persist over the island.


A surface trough extends N of the low near 20N68W to 25N64W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A gale is near
the northern portion of the trough. See above. A 1032 mb high is
over the W Atlantic near 33N63W. A cold front is over the
central Atlantic from 31N39W to 23N52W. Scattered showers are
within 30 nm of the front. A 1022 mb high is over the E Atlantic
near 32N30W. Expect over the next 48 hours for the low at 20N68W
to be the dominate weather feature in the Atlantic.

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