Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 140900
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Mar 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large N to NW swell is propagating across the western and central
Atlantic waters. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are generally north of 25N
between 37W and 60W. This area of large swell will subside and
decrease in areal extent as it propagates to the northeast of the
discussion area through late Fri.

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between a 1007 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia and a 1021 mb high pressure between Bermuda and
Puerto Rico is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across the
south- central Caribbean. Local effects off the coast of Colombia
are providing an additional influence to support 30 to 35 kt NE to
E winds near the coast between Cartagena and Barranquilla during
the night time hours. Associated seas are likely around 11 ft
currently. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight and Fri night.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas
and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane
Center at websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea
near 10N13W to 00N19W. The ITCZ continues from 00N19W to 03S38W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04S to 00N between 23W
and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and a trough over the Yucatan
peninsula is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the Yucatan
peninsula. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure
and a trough over Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate winds
over the Gulf waters W of 90W. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the high center with gentle winds elsewhere E of 90W.
Seas are in the 3-4 ft range north of the Yucatan peninsula, 2-3
ft W of 90W, and 1-2 ft E of 90W.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the Gulf waters
through into the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will increase
to moderate to fresh speeds over the majority of the basin today
through Fri. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to
the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and early morning
hours due to local effects. A cold front may move into the N Gulf
the end of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

Aside from the gale force winds off Colombia, fresh to strong
winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Fresh to strong
winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh
winds are elsewhere E of 80W with gentle to moderate winds W of
80W. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range in the south central Caribbean
and 5-7 ft elsewhere S of 18N and E of 82W. Seas of 4-6 ft are in
the Gulf of Honduras, with 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will
shift eastward the end of the week into the weekend. The area of
high pressure will support fresh to strong winds across the south-
central Caribbean. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale- force
tonight and Fri night. Seas will peak near 12 ft during the
strongest winds. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong near
the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage, and S of Hispaniola
through the upcoming weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Significant Swell
in the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N26W to 23N45W. Fresh to strong W
winds are observed N of 29N behind the front to 60W. The front
bisects the subtropical ridge, anchored by a 1019 mb high near
26N27W and a 1021 mb high pressure center near 27N66W. Moderate
to fresh NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident south of the
ridge across the tropical Atlantic south of 18N. Light to gentle
breezes are noted elsewhere. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft are
noted north of 18N between 35W and 65W, impacting the Atlantic
exposures of the Leeward Islands. Moderate seas are noted
elsewhere over the subtropical Atlantic waters north of 18N.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will prevail across
the area the next few days. The area of high pressure will shift
eastward this weekend enabling a cold front to move into the NW
waters early next week. Rough to very rough seas E of 62W will
gradually subside from W to E through Fri.

$$
AL


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