Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 162348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N21W TO 12N23W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A 1011 MB
LOW IS FURTHER E OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 15N20W. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOISTURE AREA FROM 5N-
21N E OF 28W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 23W-28W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N36W TO 12N37W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE AREA S OF 17N. THE
SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 17N
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE
AXIS AT 12N37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 37W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N64W TO 10N66W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S OF 22N. THE
WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A LARGE 700 MB TROUGH. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 66W-69W...AND INLAND
OVER VENEZUELA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 65W-71W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
17N16W TO 15N20W TO 12N23W TO 12N33W TO 12N37W TO 7N47W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 7N47W AND
CONTINUES TO 10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N
BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N86W IS PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN
90W-93W. EVENING AIRMASS CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N96W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA E OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SE CUBA...AND
JAMAICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER N
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND N
GUATEMALA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALSO
INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA N OF 7N BETWEEN 71W-73W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS NEAR 18N82W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N76W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 12N
BETWEEN 70W-80W. DRY AIR SAL IS ALSO SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION
IN THIS AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL
WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION...AND
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N57W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 78W-80W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FURTHER E FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 66W-75W.
ALSO OF NOTE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS
NEAR 15N44W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 37W-39W. DRY AIR SAL IS FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 43W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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