Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 032335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING
GALE-FORCE WINDS MAINLY OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN S OF
20N AND W OF 90W ON THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N13W AND CONTINUES TO 02N33W TO 00N48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS AT ABOUT 50 NM S OF THE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN 20W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NE CONUS THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 996 MB
LOW NEAR 46N80W...FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING
THE NE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W AND
CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG 26N92W TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N95W THEN TO 18N95W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE FRONT WITH HIGHER
CONCENTRATION MAINLY N OF 27N. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE MODERATE TO
FRESH SE WINDS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE
BASIN. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN.
THIS WILL SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THIS AREA ON THURSDAY.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE BASIN PROVIDING STABLE
AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS OBSERVED MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN N OF 17N ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 70W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER GULF OF MEXICO
WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION.

...HISPANIOLA...

MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PROVIDES STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ISLAND. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND.
SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 43N59W EXTENDS
SW ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N54W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
29N55W TO THE LOW TO 20N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
SURROUNDS THESE FEATURES MAINLY N OF 17N BETWEEN 47W-57W. THE
REMAINDER BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1042 MB HIGH NW OF PORTUGAL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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