Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 182337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
737 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends across the western Africa coast
from 07N11W to 04N14W to 02N19W. The Intertropical Convergence
Zone continues from 01N19W to 01N30W to the South American coast
near 02S45W. Scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is
south of the axis from 1N-7S between 10W-20W. Isolated moderate
convection is within 90 nm of the axis between 20W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N70W
producing surface ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. An embedded
surface trough is over the SE Gulf from 27N85W to 23N87W.
Scattered showers are from 25N-27N between 83W-88W. 10-20 kt E to
SE flow is over the Gulf with strongest winds over the Straits of
Florida. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered
over NE Mexico near 22N99W. Upper level diffluence E of the low is
producing scattered moderate convection over the W Gulf from
19N-30N between 93W-96W. Expect over the next 24 hours for little
change over the surface pattern, while in the upper levels the low
over NE Mexico will drift E to the W Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with the strongest
winds along the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is inland over N Colombia, and along the coast
of Panama. Scattered moderate convection is over N Nicaragua,
Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, the NW
Caribbean, Cuba, and Jamaica. Scattered showers are over
Hispaniola, S of Puerto Rico, and the Leeward Islands. In the
upper levels, a broad ridge is over the Caribbean Sea with axis
along 70W. Upper level moisture is over the entire Caribbean.
Broken high clouds covers the NW Caribbean. Expect little change
over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers are over the island. Expect over the
next 24 hours for more scattered showers to advect over the
island from the east with the tradewind flow. Also expect
scattered moderate convection to also form due to local
instability.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N70W. A 995
mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 31N43W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 30N-35N between 35W-43W.
25-30 kt winds are within 360 nm of the W semicircle of the low. A
surface trough, the remnants of a cold front, extends from 31N34W
to 25N34W to 19N40W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm E of the
trough. Further E, scattered showers are noted over the Canary
Islands. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level low is
centered over the surface low resulting in low upper level
pressure N of 20N between 30W-60W. Expect over the next 24 hours
for the surface low to drift E to 32N41W with convection. Also
expect the Atlantic trough to drift E to 30W with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa




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