Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 211155

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.


At 21/1200 UTC, Hurricane Maria is located near 19.9N 68.7W or
about 82 nm NNW of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. The present
movement of Maria is northwest at 8 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt
with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 135
nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is elsewhere within 175 nm of the center. The eye of
Hurricane Maria will continue to pass offshore of the
northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic today. Maria should
then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas tonight and Friday. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details.

At 21/1200 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 130 nm SE
of Nantucket, Massachusetts near 39.6N 68.1W, stationary. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevails mainly in the NW quadrant of the storm from
39N to 44N between 67W and 74W. Jose is expected to meander off
the coast of southeast New England for the next several days.
Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 18N39W to 07N38W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region
of low to moderate vertical wind shear and is in an environment
of moderate moisture as indicated by CIRA LPW and SSMI TPW
imagery. However, some Saharan dry air and dust intrusion to the
west environment of the wave is evident in enhanced IR imagery
and CIRA LPW imagery. Upper level diffluence support scattered
moderate convection from 07N to 17N between 33W and 44W.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to
12N30W to 08N44W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 09N51W to
09N60W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
wave, scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is occurring
off of the coast of Africa from 05N to 11N E of 21W.



Surface low pressure dominate the Gulf SW waters and the Yucatan
Peninsula with a trough extending from 21N92W to southern
Guatemala supporting scattered showers and tstms in the Bay of
Campeche. Fresh winds are associated with this surface trough. In
the SE basin, a 1013 mb low is located near 25N86W, which is
forecast to dissipate during the next couple of hours. Otherwise,
a surface ridge over the SE CONUS extends to the NE Gulf where it
is anchored by a 1016 mb high near 28N88W. An upper level ridge
over the basin and dry air subsidence support fair weather
elsewhere in the basin. Easterly light to moderate winds are
across much of the Gulf. Expect little change over the next 48


The core of Hurricane Maria is over Atlc waters NE of eastern
Dominican Republic, however tropical storm winds still reach a
portion of NW Puerto Rico. Scattered heavy showers and tstms
continue over the western half of Puerto Rico while numerous
heavy showers are across the Mona Passage and the eastern half
of the Dominican Republic. Showers over Puerto Rico are likely
to continue through this evening potentially generating flash
See the special features section for further details. Strong
winds and high seas associated with Maria prevail in the NE
Caribbean mainly N of 16N. The eastern extent of the Pacific
monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica, Panama through
Colombia supporting isolated showers and tstms in the SW
Caribbean S of 15N W of 79W. Winds and seas associated with
Maria will gradually diminish through early Friday as the
cyclone moves farther NW over the SW N Atlc waters.


A hurricane warning prevails for the northern Dominican Republic
while a tropical storm warning is along the southern region. A
dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4-6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic,
and 1-3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory.
Numerous strong convection is occuring over the E Dominican
Republic spreading across the rest of the Island as Maria
continuen to move NW over SW N Atlc waters.


Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. A 1011 mb low - the
remnants of Lee - is located near 19N48W. No significant deep
convection is currently occurring with this low and it has a low
chance of redevelopment as a tropical cyclone in the next two
days. A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from
30N45W to 23N48W, which is being supported by an upper-level
trough. Scattered showers and tstms are observed from 21N to 31N
between 40W and 49W. The remainder of the basin remains under the
influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high centered north of the

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