Tropical Weather Discussion
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302
AXNT20 KNHC 181802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front extends from a low pressure system deepening over NW
Atlc waters. The front enters the SW N Atlc near 30N67W SW across
eastern Cuba to Costa Rica. A strong pressure gradient between
the low and broad strong high pressure anchored over NE Louisiana
support gale-force winds north of 30N within 180 nm west of the
front. Winds will diminish below gale force tonight. However, near
gale-force winds will prevail through early Friday morning as the
front weaken east of the Bahamas. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and
the latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC,
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 04N08W and
continues to 0N21W. The ITCZ begins near 0N21W and continues
along 0N40W to 0N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 01S to 05N between 10W and 24W. Isolated showers are from 0N
to 06N between 30W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge is established across the Gulf in the wake of a
cold front that currently extends across the SW N Atlc, western
Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. A weakness in the ridge is analyzed
as a surface trough in the far western Gulf from 27N96W to the
western Bay of Campeche near 18N93W. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh northerly winds across the basin with locally
strong winds in the Straits of Florida. Winds will weaken during
the next 24 hours as the pressure gradient relaxes across the
basin. Fresh to locally strong southerly flow will set-up again
across the western Gulf and persist early this weekend ahead on
the next cold front forecast to reach the Texas coast Sunday
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail of a cold front extends across eastern Cuba SW to Costa
Rica while a surface trough extends off the Yucatan Peninsula from
21N85W to 15N87W. These features are underneath middle level
divergent flow that along shallow moisture support scattered
showers S of 20N W of 76W. Latest scatterometer data show fresh to
near gale-force winds in the NW Caribbean behind the cold front.
A 1010 mb low off the coast of Colombia support scattered moderate
convection in Panama and NW Colombia adjacent waters as well as fresh
to strong winds. The cold front is forecast to stall across the
Windward Passage SW to NE Nicaragua by Friday morning before
dissipating Saturday morning. Strong trade winds will pulse near
the coast of Colombia coast Friday night and then expand across
much of the central Caribbean over the weekend as high pressure
builds north of the area.

...HISPANIOLA...

Partly cloudy skies and isolated showers prevail across the Island
as a cold front rapidly approaches from the west. The front is
forecast to stall in the Windward Passage Friday morning and then
dissipate during Sat morning. This scenario will allow for the
continuation of cloudy skies and potential for isolated to
scattered showers through Sat. Fresh northeast winds are expected
across the Windward Passage today through Saturday night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic in the wake of the
above mentioned front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is moving across the SW N Atlc waters with strong to
gale-force winds west of it. See the Special Features section for
more details about this front and the Gale Warning in effect. In
the central Atlc, an upper-level low continue to support scattered
moderate convection from 23N to 29N between 37W-43W. Otherwise, the
Azores high dominates the remainder central and east Atlantic.
Gale force winds behind the front will decrease to 30 kt tonight
as the front continue to move towards the central Atlc waters
through Friday. The cold front will then dissipate over the
central basin Saturday through Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos



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