Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 070601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 56W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN
DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS
HINDERING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 68W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT. BOTH THE DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
HINDER CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
09N27W TO 07N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N35W TO 06N46W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR
04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N E OF 30W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 33W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE GULF BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N86W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE SE CONUS TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF AND FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
TO THE WESTERN BASIN. MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN BASIN ALONG WITH
LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE LOW ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS E OF 84W. STRONG DEEP LATER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 27N85W. N TO NE
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W
WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL
PERSIST THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS GREAT
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE BEING
REPORTED. THE IMAGERY SHOW A MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR
68W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. DEEP CONVECTION IS
ONLY OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...PANAMA...SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
S OF 11N. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FROM
10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 13 FT. E WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KT ARE FROM 15N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W WITH SEAS TO
8 FT. WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 17.5N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 9 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. THE AREA
OF STRONGEST TRADES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 68W-82W
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...

A PATCH OF MOIST AIR MOVED FROM INLAND HISPANIOLA TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. SAHARAN DRY AIR
AND DUST HAS MOVED INTO THE ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THROUGH WED...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BUT HAZY
CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N70W ALONG
WITH A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. SIMILAR WEATHER IS
BETWEEN THE SE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N37W AND A 1025 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N63W. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION...SEE
SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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