Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 191207
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
526 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A broad area of low pressure analyzed currently as a 997 mb low
centered near 37N63W is forecast to strengthen during the next 24
hours while moving eastward. The associated cold front extends
from the low center to 32N66W to 30N72W to the South Carolina
coast near 33N79W. Near gale to gale force SW to W winds are
occurring generally N of 30N between the front and 65W. See
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
05N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 05N15W
to 01N36W to the Equator near 41W. Scattered moderate convection
is S of 07N between 27W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level ridge is noted on water vapor imagery over
much of the Gulf basin this morning with axis along 85W. To the
west of the ridge axis...southwesterly flow aloft prevails between
the ridging and an approaching middle to upper level trough with
axis currently over western Texas and NW Mexico. The troughing
supports a weak area of low pressure across eastern Texas and a
stationary front extending from near 30N94W S-SW to the coast of
Mexico near Tampico. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered
tstms are occurring across portions of the NW Gulf N of 23N W of
92W...including interior portions of Louisiana and SE Texas. The
front is expected to become diffuse through Friday as surface
ridging remains anchored to the east across the Florida peninsula
and Bahamas. The next cold front is forecast to emerge off the
Texas and Louisiana coasts Saturday night late into Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Tranquil conditions prevail across the basin this morning. Much
of the quiet weather is due in large part to N-NW flow aloft...
strong subsidence...and dry air as noted on water vapor imagery.
Moderate to occasional fresh trades were depicted on recent
scatterometer data...with slightly higher trades occurring within
close proximity to the coast of Colombia. This overall synoptic
pattern is expected to persist as high pressure will remain
anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc through Saturday. The
next significant cold front is expected to enter the NW Caribbean
Sunday night late into Monday shifting winds northerly across the
western Caribbean early next week.

...HISPANIOLA...
Moderate NE winds prevail across the island and adjacent coastal
waters this morning. Winds will diminish slightly through the
next 24-36 hours as the pressure gradient weakens and high
pressure anchored to the N of the island across the SE Bahamas
persists.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor
imagery in the vicinity of 33N66W that supports the Special
Features low pressure area and associated cold front. Aside from
the gale force winds...scattered showers and tstms are occurring
N of 28N between 60W-77W. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW
North Atlc waters are under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1020 mb high centered across the NW Bahamas.
Farther east...another middle to upper level trough axis extends
from 30N45W SW to 14N60W and supports a stationary front analyzed
from 32N31W to 26N51W. Isolated showers are occurring within 90
nm either side of the front. The weak front bridges between two
high pressure areas...one a 1022 mb high centered near 32N35W and
the second a 1023 mb high centered near 33N21W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN


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