Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 010006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N89W TO 12N92W...MOVING W AT
5-10 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE INLAND IN
THE REGIONS MENTIONED ABOVE AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 27N. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N22W TO 7N21W. ACCORDING TO UPPER-AIR
TIME SECTION ANALYSES FROM DAKAR SENEGAL...THE WAVE CAME OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST EARLY TODAY. THE WAVE EXHIBIT A STRONG SIGNAL IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
220 NM WEST OF THE AXIS S OF 11N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 1N-17N E OF 26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
18N36W TO 9N38W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST
IS IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 37W-41W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 500 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N51W TO 7N51W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT.
SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE NORTHERN WAVE  ENVIRONMENT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE WAVE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 51W-55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N64W TO 10N64W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY.
STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N24W 7N35W TO 8N45W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
8N45W TO 7N58W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A MEDIUM
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
THIS WAVE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. THE WAVE IS
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IS
FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE
GULF S OF 28N. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 26N81W TO
29N83W...WHICH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT EXTEND WITHIN
80 NM OF THE COASTLINE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...THUS SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT. RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE W-SW GULF DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM IN SPECIAL FEATURES. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITHIN THAT PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE S-SW GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EAST
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR
IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR
THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AND THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 17W
BETWEEN 68W-80W WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ABOUND. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE ENHANCING MORE
SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN TUE
MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN
MON THROUGH TUE ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS REFLECTS AT THE SURFACE AS TWO SURFACE
TROUGHS...ONE ALONG 27N65W TO 25N69W AND A SECOND TROUGH FROM
23N68W TO 19N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE S OF 29N BETWEEN 60W-
72W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N46W TO A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 28N49W TO
26N51W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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