Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 180606

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.


...Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea...

Pulsing nocturnal NE-to-E winds to gale-force are expected again
during the early morning hours today from 11N to 13N between 73W
and 76W off the coast of Colombia. Expect sea heights to range
from 10 to 15 feet. Wind speeds will be drop below gale-force by
afternoon, then resume during the early morning hours Tuesday.
Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from 07N11W to 05N25W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N25W to 05N40W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate north of the ITCZ from 05N to 11N between 34W and 42W.



A surface trough extends across the basin from Pensacola FL to
near 20N96W. Scattered moderate convection is mainly northwest
of the trough axis, NW of a line from 30N86W to 24N98W. A ridge
passes through Florida near 28N82W to SW Gulf near 21N92W. The
trough will lift northwestward today into Texas. A ridge will
dominate the Gulf waters through Tue. A weak cold front will
reach the coast of Texas Tue night, extend from SE Louisiana to
near Brownsville TX Wed morning, then dissipate by Wed night.


Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
the gale warning near the coast of Colombia during the next two
days. Broad mid-level anticyclonic wind flow and relatively dry
air in subsidence span the entire Caribbean Sea. Except for a
few random trade wind showers, minimal convective activity is
occurring across the basin.


A broad mid to upper-level high covering the Caribbean and very
dry air aloft will support stable conditions across the island


A deep layer trough in the central Atlantic is supporting a cold
front that extends from 31N46W to 25N57W to 23N67W. The front is
dissipating west of 23N67W to the SE Bahamas. Scattered moderate
showers are along the frontal boundary north of 23N. Strong high
pressure building west of the front will prevail over the area
through mid-week. The Azores high extends a surface ridge and
fair weather across the eastern Atlantic, with the ridge axis
from 32N28W to 24N44W.

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