Tropical Weather Discussion
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520
AXNT20 KNHC 171737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1237 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Deepening low pressure moving SE from the mid Atlantic states
will drag a strong cold front through the waters north of 27N
between 64W and 75W on Thursday morning. Gale force SW winds are
likely to develop ahead of the front as it pushes SE. The gales
are expected to continue through Friday as the front continues
sweeping SE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from Sierra Leone on the African coast
near 08N12W to 07N15W to 04N18W. The Intertropical Convergence
Zone axis continues from 04N18W to 00N27W to 02S39W. Isolated
moderate convection is found within 120 nm either side of a line
from 02N21W to 03S36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level ridge remains in place over the Gulf
basin this morning. The axis of the ridge extends from over the
Yucatan peninsula to the western tip of the Florida panhandle.
Deep layer southwest flow is noted along the western periphery of
the ridge with scattered cloudiness and isolated showers occurring
across the far NW Gulf waters just to the SE of a stationary
front analyzed across eastern Texas to surface low pressure over
NE Mexico near 25N103W. Otherwise...surface ridging extending SW
from the north Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh E-SE winds
expected through Wednesday night. Mode guidance suggests a strong
short wave will kick the front into the Gulf on Thursday. Strong
thunderstorms are possible along the front as it pushes eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A quiet weather pattern persists across the Caribbean basin.
Water vapor imagery indicates broad middle to upper-level
troughing from Hispaniola to Costa Rica. Mid-level subsidence is
producing dry air aloft. Latest satellite-derived wind data
indicate fresh to strong trades dominate the basin. The strongest
winds are occurring north of the coast of Colombia to 13N between
72W and 77W. Visible satellite imagery shows isolated trade wind
showers across the basin. Shower coverage is highest near the
coasts of Belize and Nicaragua where the trades slow down a bit.
Similar weather conditions are forecast through Thursday as deep
layer ridging lingers across the SW North Atlc region. Winds will
lessen a bit as strong low pressure heading SE from the east
coast of the United States weakens the ridge to the north of the
Caribbean.

HISPANIOLA...
Fresh to strong NE winds prevail across the island and the
adjacent coastal waters. Winds will continue at these speeds
through Thursday, then diminish on Friday as the ridging to the N
weakens. Isolated showers are forecast to continue through Friday
as the E-NE flow persists.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A broad 1028 mb surface high centered off the mid-Atlc coast near
33N67W is generally maintaining fresh to strong trade winds south
of 23N and west of 53W. A cold front enters the discussion area
near 32N39W and extends W-SW to 26N50W to 25N60W, then becomes a
weakening boundary to 25N68W. Scattered showers are occurring
along and up to 90 nm N of the front. Farther east...another weak
trough curves northeastward from 18N36W to 25N35W to 31N29W.
Isolated showers are seen within 60 nm either side of the trough.
Finally...SE of the Windward Islands...a surface trough analyzed
from 06N57W to 11N55W is providing the focus for scattered showers
and isolated tstms from 05N to 10N between 51W and 60W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy



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