Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 252341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1004 MB DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N52W IS
SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 25N
TO 28N BETWEEN 49W AND 55W. SEAS OF 8 TO 16 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER
THIS AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN AFRICA REACHING THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 06N16W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N16W TO
05N33W TO 04N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 20W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 34N75W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A
LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE
BASIN...EXCEPT LIGHT WINDS OVER THE SW PORTION. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY S OF 27N BETWEEN 84W AND
92W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE E TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS S REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. TO THE E...THE
COMBINATION OF A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED N OF HISPANIOLA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF
16N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER PUERTO
RICO COMBINED WITH AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ALREADY PRODUCING URBAN AND FLASH FLOODS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE ADJACENT NORTHERN WATERS
FROM 20N72W TO 21N67W. THIS FRONT COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ISLAND. EXPECT FOR THIS SCENARIO TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A
1021 HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N75W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS W OF 70W. TO THE E...A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 30N60W.A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE TRIPLE
POINT NEAR 31N56W TO 25N58W TO 21N65W THEN A S A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 20N72W. SE OF THIS SYSTEM...A 1004 MB
DEVELOPING LOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION/WINDS/SEAS...CENTERED
NEAR 29N52W. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA SE OF THE
LOW CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO
23N56W TO 20N64W. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS
AHEAD OF THE LOW N 22N BETWEEN 39W AND 51W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF
1017 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 26N39W AND 27N25W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE LOW NEAR 60W TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE ONE
ALONG 52W WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



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