Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 200516

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1216 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


The trade wind flow in the southern Caribbean is expected to
increase during the next day or two, and these winds will reach
gale-force in about 30 hours near the coast of Colombia. A Gale
Warning is currently in effect for this area. See the latest NHC
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC
for more details.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 08N13W and
continues to 03N18W. The ITCZ begins near 03N18W and extends
westward to 01N38W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ.



A pair of surface highs prevail across the southeast CONUS and
west Atlantic. With these, surface ridging extends across the
majority of the basin. To the west, a 1017 surface low is
centered over southern Texas, extending a trough along 96W.
Moderate to fresh anticyclonic are noted in scatterometer data
across most of the basin except near the surface trough. The low
is expected to dissipate this weekend when the system loses its
upper-level support. High pressure is expected to settle to the
east of the area for much of the weekend.


The southern end of a frontal boundary over the Atlantic is
analyzed as a stationary front that extends across the Caribbean
Sea from eastern Cuba, then becomes weak to just off the coast of
Honduras. Scattered showers prevail in the vicinity of the front
between 75W-85W. Similar activity lies south of 13N west of 80W
aided by upper-level diffluent flow. Fresh to strong northeasterly
winds are noted between 70W-82W, while moderate trades prevail
elsewhere. The trade wind flow to the east of the front is
expected to increase to gale-force near the coast of Colombia
this weekend as high pressure builds to the north of the area. See
the Special Features section for more details.


Partly cloudy skies and scattered showers prevail across the
island as a stalled front lies just to the west of the area.
This scenario will continue through the weekend. Fresh northeasterly
winds will continue over the Windward Passage for another day as
high pressure builds across the western Atlantic.


A cold front is moving over the central Atlantic from 31N50W to
22N67W, then becomes stationary from that point to 21N74W.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail along and west of the stationary
front, while gentle to moderate winds are noted near the cold
front. High pressure is building in the wake of the front across
the west Atlantic. To the east of the front, a surface trough
extends from 24N45W to 18N48W. Elsewhere, the Bermuda-Azores high
dominates the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic.

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