Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 140541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
140 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Ophelia is centered near 33.0N 30.6W at 14/0300 UTC or
about 347 nm SSW of the Azores, moving E-NE at 17 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 31N-35N between 29W-32W. The center of
Ophelia will pass south of the southeastern Azores by late
Saturday or early Sunday. See the latest Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic with axis extending from
13N27W to 04N27W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in an area of
moderate moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in a
distinct surface trough, and a weak 700 mb trough. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 14N40W to 04N41W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in an area
of moderate moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in
a distinct surface trough, and a weak 700 mb trough. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles with axis extending
from 21N59W to 10N61W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in an area
of abundant moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in
a distinct surface trough, and a distinct 700 mb trough. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is E of the wave axis from
12N-17N between 54W-58W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean and Central America with axis
extending from 18N83W to 04N83W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is
in a region of abundant moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The
wave is in a surface trough, and a weak 700 mb trough. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N12W to
06N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N17W to 06N26W, then resumes from 06N29W to 08N36W to 08N40W.
The ITCZ resumes again from 08N44W to 09N51W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is from 08N-13N between 31W-36W, and
from 07N-11N between 43W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the SE Gulf of Mexico from 27N82W to
22N87W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough.
Scattered moderate convection is over the Straits of Florida
between 80W-83W. Isolated moderate convection is also over the Bay
of Campeche. Mostly fair weather is over the N Gulf. 10-20 kt
easterly surface winds are over the Gulf, with strongest winds
over the central Gulf. In the upper levels, a large upper level
high is centered over S Louisiana near 30N92W, with strong
subsidence. Expect the surface trough to move W over the next 24
hours with additional showers.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. The eastern
extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is over Costa Rica and
Panama. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the SW
Caribbean from 10N-13N between 79W-82W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is also over Costa Rica and Panama. Scattered showers
are over Central America from Guatemala to Nicaragua. Of note in
the upper levels, a small upper level high is centered over the
Leeward Islands near 18N63W, with subsidence. Expect the tropical
wave over the Lesser Antilles to produce convection over the E
Caribbean over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers and isolated moderate convection
persists over Hispaniola. Expect little change over the next 24
hours. Expect additional convection in 48 hours due to the
tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Ophelia is detailed above. A surface trough is NE of the
Bahamas from 31N71W to 27N74W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm
of the trough. Scattered moderate convection is from 27N-30N
between 63W-66W. Farther east, a surface trough is noted from
29N56W to 24N61W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
trough. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic,
outside of the influence of Hurricane Ophelia, is under the
influence of surface ridging anchored by a 1020 mb high centered
near 27N48W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa




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