Tropical Weather Discussion
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701
AXNT20 KNHC 232357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale:  As of 2100 UTC, a broad low pressure system with
1001 mb central pressure is centered at 28N79W, just east of
Cape Canaveral.  A 1512 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated
gale force winds were occurring east of the center.  These gale
force conditions are expected to continue until 25/1800 UTC.
See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/Vicinity KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N12W to
02N19W.  The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
02N19W to the equator near 40W.  Widely scattered moderate
convection exists within 120 nm of the axis between 20W and 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The broad surface low mentioned in the Special Features section
is inducing weak northerly winds in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Weak southeasterly return flow has set up in the northwestern
Gulf, ahead of a cold front expected to reach the Gulf late
Friday night.  No significant showers or deep convection is
occurring over the Gulf today.  As little moisture advection is
likely to occur in the return flow, limited showers are to be
expected as the front reaches the northwestern Gulf late Friday
night and stretches from the Florida panhandle to near Tampico
by Saturday afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As 2100 UTC, a cold front from the broad surface low mentioned
in the Special Features section reaches from eastern Cuba to the
northwestern Caribbean.  Ahead of the front, a prefrontal trough
extends from the Windward Passage to the southwestern Caribbean.
 Scattered showers exist within 60 nm of the trough axis.  Winds
behind the front are weak westerly with 15-20 kt south to
southwesterlies along the trough line.  The remainder of the
Caribbean has weak southeast to east tradewinds.  The prefrontal
trough and cold front should push eastward only to near
Hispaniola on Friday before slow dissipating on Saturday.
Continued scattered showers are expected within 60 nm of the
trough axis through Saturday.  Winds across the Caribbean should
be 5-15 kt by Friday through Saturday.

...Hispaniola...

Southerly winds east of the Caribbean prefrontal trough are
causing numerous showers over Haiti and scattered showers over
southwestern Dominican Republic.  As the trough and the
approaching cold front are expected to move only slowly
eastward, continued scattered to numerous showers are expected
over Hispaniola through late Friday before beginning to diminish
on Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 2100 UTC, a broad low pressure system with 1001 mb central
pressure is centered at 28N79W, just east of Cape Canaveral.  A
warm front extends east of the center to 27N72W and a cold front
extends south of the center.  A 1512 UTC ASCAT scatterometer
pass indicated gale force winds were occurring east of the
center.  A prefrontal trough extends from 25N72W to the Windward
Passage.  Scattered moderate convection and numerous showers
extend from the warm front northward to our border at 32N as
well as within 60 nm of the prefrontal trough.  The low - at
quite a low latitude for an extratropical cyclone - is in the
process of occluding.  The low will move slowly northeastward
during the occlusion process with winds only gradually
diminishing.  Continued scattered convection and numerous
showers are expected to occur in association with the warm
frontal boundary and prefrontal trough through Saturday.

Elsewhere a cold front enters the area at 32N43W, extends
southwestward to 23N50W, becomes a stationary front, and extends
to 18N65W near the Virgin Islands.  Scattered moderate
convection and showers are located within 60 nm of the cold
front and scattered showers are located within 60 nm of the
stationary front.  20 to 25 kt S winds are located east of the
cold front.  The cold front should only progress eastward
through Friday morning before becoming stationary and gradually
dissipating by Saturday.  The moderate southerly winds and
convection/showers should diminish on Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea



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