Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 150001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 02N20W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 02N20W AND CONTINUES TO 04N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 10W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N89W.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS S TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ESE. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO OVER THE GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 90W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE INLAND OVER SE TEXAS WITH PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS OVER LOUISIANA AND THE LOUISIANA COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM NW HAITI AT 20N73W TO
W JAMAICA TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 11N92W. 15-25 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NW OF THE SHEARLINE. 5-
10 KT EASTERLIES ARE SE OF THE SHEARLINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
REPORTED OVER JAMAICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF
COSTA RICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 81W-84W. A 1009 MB LOW IS FURTHER
E ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. FINALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN
ON RADAR OVER PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST
N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT 20N70W TO NW HAITI AT 20N73W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND PORTIONS OF
HAITI. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS OVER NW ATLANTIC AND
BAHAMAS. AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N56W TO
23N62W TO JUST N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT 20N70W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1038 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 39N30W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLABTIC SUPPORTONG
THE COLD FRONT. A SMALLUPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N37W
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 35W-40W. EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS MOSTLY E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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