Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 171804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The center of Tropical Depression Six at 17/1500 UTC is near
14.0N 36.4W. This position also is about 840 miles/1350 km to
the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The depression is moving
toward the west-northwest, or 300 degrees, 13 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots.
Please read the latest NHC intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT21
KNHC for more details. Convective precipitation: scattered
strong from 13N to 15N between 36W and 37W. Isolated moderate
from 11N to 17N between 35W and 40W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 17N
southward. It is moving westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave moved
away from the area of Tropical Depression Six. Convective
precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from 10N to 18N between
40W and 46W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 20N62W 10N61W, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave is moving across the islands
of the eastern Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 09N to 14N between 58W and 63W.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W/88W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving
across the Gulf of Honduras, Honduras, and Nicaragua, toward El
Salvador. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 16N to 19N between 85W and 90W. Isolated
moderate from 19N to 22N between 85W and 90W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 13N20W, and 14N28W. The ITCZ is along
07N44W 07N52W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to
locally strong elsewhere from 07N to 16N from 30W eastward, and
elsewhere from 05N to 12N between 36W and 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area, associated with
the 24N79W cyclonic circulation center, that is described in the
Atlantic Ocean section. More cyclonic wind flow continues into
the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface low
pressure is in the isobaric analysis, from the west central
sections into the southwestern corner of the area. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong along the
coast from the upper Texas coast to 20N95W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level inverted trough is along 59W/60W from 17N
southward, moving into the eastern sections of the Caribbean
Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is evident in water
vapor imagery, from 72W eastward. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 09N to 14N between 58W and 63W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the northwestern corner of
the area. This cyclonic wind flow is related to the cyclonic
wind flow that is moving around the 24N79W cyclonic circulation
center, that is described in the Atlantic Ocean section.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
17/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.55 in
Acapulco Mexico, 0.08 in Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.04 in
Guadeloupe, 0.02 in Trinidad, and 0.01 in San Juan in
Puerto Rico.

The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, to 10N81W,
across Nicaragua, beyond 13N87W into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong in the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia. Numerous strong from
10N southward between 80W and 82W. Warming cloud top
temperatures and weakening precipitation from 10N to 13N between
82W and the coastal plains of Nicaragua.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level S to SW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the
first half of day one will consist of S wind flow with a ridge
that will be to the east of Hispaniola. E wind flow will cover
the area for part of day one, followed by SE and S wind flow for
the rest of the two day forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 500 MB shows that the two day forecast period will consist
of SE wind at first, followed by east wind flow, and then NE
wind flow. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that SE wind
flow will move across the area for the next 48 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N79W, in
the waters that are between Andros Island in the Bahamas, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean, Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, Cuba and the northwestern
corner of the Caribbean Sea, and the Bahamas. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N in the Caribbean Sea
to 30N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 70W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across Florida, and 90W in the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough is along 20N62W 23N63W 26N64W. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 21N to
23N between 61W and 62W, and from 26N to 28N between 59W and 66W.
Isolated moderate elsewhere from 20N to 30N between 58W and 69W.

An upper level trough extends from a Canary Islands cyclonic
circulation center, to a 28N33W cyclonic circulation center, to
a 23N45W cyclonic circulation center, toward a 59W/60W inverted
trough that is entering the the eastern sections of the
Caribbean Sea.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is
from 27N northward between Africa and 80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANE WARNING WARNING WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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