Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 072305
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N29W TO 03N30W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A
MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS NEAR 07N30W. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION INTACT
SINCE LEAVING WEST AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 31W-34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 6N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N45W TO 03N47W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER SIGNAL IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 AND
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SURROUNDING THE WAVE THAT
CONTINUES TO RESULT IN AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 20N83W TO
10N83W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH WITH ENHANCED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS S OF 15N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N95W TO 15N96W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...AND ON THE SUNY-
ALBANY TROPICAL TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS AT 700 MB DEPICTS THE WAVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
06N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N32W TO 05N40W TO 06N45W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE AT 06N48W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST AT 06N54W. ASIDE FROM
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 34W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 28N88W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF. SEE ABOVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA E OF
84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER GEORGIA NEAR 33N82W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE
CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA. MOSTLY SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS TO
BE OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALSO EXPECT MORE DEEP CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA
DURING THE AFTERNOON DIURNAL MAXIMUM.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A
MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADEWINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG BREEZE
CONDITIONS JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA AS SEEN ON ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW INLAND OVER
N COLOMBIA FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 73W-76W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A FAIRLY LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION FOR A
FEW DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N46W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N49W TO
25N51W. ANOTHER 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR
37N30W. THE EQUATORWARD PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKER THAN USUAL
AND IS PRODUCING E TO NE GENTLE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N71W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 70W-80W. MORE
UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED NEAR 28N54W AND 23N42W. EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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