Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 240604

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.


A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 18N26W
to 06N28W, moving W at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear. However,
the CIRA LPW imagery show extensive dry air in the wave
environment, which coincide with Meteosat enhanced imagery
of Saharan dry air and dust. This is supporting lack of convection
at the time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
12N48W to 04N49W, moving W at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear S of
11N, is in a moderate moist environment with some patches of dry
air according to CIRA LPW, and is under a region of upper level
divergence. These factors support scattered showers and isolated
tstms from 3N to 12N between 46W and 58W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
14N65W to inland Venezuela, moving west at 10-15 knots within the
last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear.
However, extensive intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust in the
wave environment hinder convection at the time.


The Monsoon Trough extends from 08N13W to 08N16W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone axis begins near 05N30W to 03N40W
to 05N49W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical
waves...scattered moderate convection is from 04S-07N between
33W-46W. Numerous heavy showers and scattered tstms are from
05N-09N E of 14W.



Stable weather conditions are basin-wide being supported by
surface high pressure extending SW from the W Atlc and dry air
subsidence from aloft as indicated by Water Vapor imagery. The
ridge supports moderate to fresh E-SE winds across the basin,
which are forecast to continue through Sunday. The only exception
is the area from 21N to 23N between 87.5W and 90.5W where NE-E
fresh to strong winds are present, however with seas less than 8
ft. This area of fresh to strong winds is forecast to diminish
within the next 12 hours. An upper level low centered W of the
Yucatan Peninsula will support showers over the Bay of Campeche
and the NW Gulf over the weekend. Otherwise, by Saturday night
into Sunday...a weak frontal boundary is expected to impact the
northern waters as it stalls along 30N and dissipates by Sunday


An upper level low is centered over the E Bay of Campeche continue
to support scattered to isolated showers over Honduras and the NW
Caribbean W of 80W. The presence of a tropical wave across
southern Mexico is generating heavy showers across Guatemala.
Another tropical wave is in the SE Caribbean, however lacking
convection due to abundant Saharan dry air and dust in the region.
The northern portion of this wave is analyzed as a surface trough
across the Leeward Islands where it generates isolated showers.
Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will continue in the south-
central basin, increasing to near gale force on Sunday as the
tropical wave moves into this area. Moderate to fresh trades are
elsewhere. Little change is expected thereafter for the early
portion of next week.


Mostly clear skies prevail across the island as surface ridging
to the N across the SW North Atlc remains in place providing
mostly fair weather conditions. However, a surface trough moving
along the periphery of the Atlc surface ridge will bring moisture
across the region, thus supporting showers Saturday and Sunday.


An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered offshore of NE
Florida that continues to support a 1021 mb high centered near
30N67W. Otherwise, the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc
is under the influence of surface ridging anchored by a 1030 mb
high centered N of the Azores near 39N27W. There are two tropical
waves in the basin. See that section above for further details.

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