Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 170605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the area that is called: AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the
24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 18/0000
UTC, consists of: N or NE near gale or gale in: MADEIRA,
AGADIR, CANARIAS, TARFAYA, AND CAP BLANC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/33W from 10N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: any precipitation is in the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W from 10N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: any precipitation is in the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W from 13N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong from 08N to 10N between 72W and 77W, and in the
Peninsula de la Guajira of N Colombia.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau Sierra Leone near 12N16W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N14W to 04N16W 03N26W 03N38W and into NE Brazil near
03N52W. Convective precipitation:scattered moderate to strong
from 06N between 50W and 53w in the coastal plains/coastal waters
of Brazil, French Guiana, and Suriname, and from 03N to 04N
between 13W and 18W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N
from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD, ACROSS
FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough is digging through 32N66W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to 30N78W, to 27N82W in Florida, across NW Cuba, into
central Honduras. A cold front passes through 32N55W to 30N59W.
The front is dissipating cold front 30N59W to 26N71W. Convective
precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong, in the Atlantic Ocean, from
20N northward between 40W and 80W. Upper level N wind flow spans
the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow covers the area that is from 90W westward.

...VISIBILITY IN MILES, AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM
27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

KBBF, KEMK, and KVOA: 3 to 5 miles and haze.

VISIBILITY IN MILES, AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MISSISSIPPI: 4 and mist in Pascagoula. FLORIDA: in Milton and in
Crestview.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 80W
eastward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, moving into the area from the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure center that
is near 20N83W, to 18N81W and 13N81W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate between 74W and 83W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola.
Numerous strong convective precipitation is from 16N to 19N
between 71W and 74W, in southern sections of the island. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong is in the northern coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona and Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling
1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR.
Santiago: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Puerto Plata:
MVFR. ceiling 1500 feet. earlier rain and thunder have stopped for
the moment.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. A N-to-S oriented
ridge will be present along 70W. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500
mb shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during the
first 30 hours to 36 hours. A trough will follow for the next 12
hours or so. 48 hours. Anticyclonic wind flow, from an east- to-
west oriented ridge, will span the Caribbean Sea. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that an east-to-west oriented ridge,
that will reach Hispaniola from the Atlantic Ocean, will send
southerly wind flow across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours.
An inverted trough will be on top of the area during the last 6
hours to 12 hours.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge 32N40W to 26N50W 24N60W, and 24N70W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow is to the NW of the Atlantic Ocean cold
front. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 32N17W, through
32N21W 25N30W, and 22N40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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