Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 220605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/38W from 18N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. This position is based
on satellite imagery and diagnostic data. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 06N to 15N
beween 27W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean/Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 59W/61W
from 23N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 15N to 24N between 57W and
64W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/71W from 20N in eastern
sections of the Dominican Republic to NW Venezuela. The wave is
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 15N to 23N between 66W and 77W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W/87W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. This wave cuts across parts
of Honduras and Nicaragua, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate in inland sections and
the coastal waters of Central America from Costa Rica to
Honduras.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W, to 15N26W, to 12N38W. The ITCZ continues from 12N38W
to 08N45W, 07N48W, to 07N54W. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong from 07N to 13N between 42W and 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 45 nm to the
SE of SE Louisiana. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico
from 24N northward. A second cyclonic circulation center is about
120 nm to the NW of the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 24N northward.
Earlier precipitation that was in Mexico, from the Yucatan
Peninsula to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, has weakened leaving
convective debris clouds.

A surface ridge extends from a 1018 mb high pressure center that
is near 26N84W, to 24N90W, to 19N97W in southern Mexico.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KVQT.

MVFR: none.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOUISIANA: rain and thunder in Galliano. ALABAMA: LIFR in
Evergreen. FLORIDA: light rain in Tampa/St. Petersburg
metropolitan area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 16N
northward between the Mona Passage and NW Cuba. A tropical wave is
along 69W/71W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from
15N to 23N between 66W and 77W.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from Central
America into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to Jamaica,
including in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the
easternmost part of the area, to the E and SE of the trough/
cyclonic wind flow.

Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 11N southward
from 76W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at
22/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.13 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

...HISPANIOLA...

Hispaniola is on the eastern side of an upper level trough.
The trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 25N75W. Upper
level southerly wind flow is moving across the area.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/71W from 20N in eastern
sections of the Dominican Republic to NW Venezuela. The wave is
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 15N to 23N between 66W and 77W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: light rain.
for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: earlier light rain has
ended for the moment. VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo:
VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: VFR. few cumulonimbus
clouds. Punta Cana: earlier rain and thunder have ended for the
moment. VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago: light rain. Puerto
Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that the current trough
will last for another 12 hours or so. An Atlantic Ocean-to-
Hispaniola ridge will bring anticyclonic wind flow to the area for
the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 500 mb shows that Hispaniola will be on the southern side of
an Atlantic Ocean ridge. Larger-scale anticyclonic wind flow will
be interspersed with a few inverted troughs, during the next 48
hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that E-to-SE wind
flow will move across the area, with Hispaniola on the southern
side of an Atlantic Ocean ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean upper level cyclonic circulation center
is about 280 nm to the east of SE Florida. The cyclonic wind flow
that surrounds the cyclonic center covers the Atlantic Ocean and
the Bahamas, and parts of Cuba and Hispaniola. Convective
precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from 22N northward between
70W and interior sections of Florida, and the coastal waters of
Florida in the Gulf of Mexico.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center and associated trough
are about 1750 nm to the west of southern Morocco. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N northward between 38W
and 52W.

A surface ridge passes through a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N40W, to a 1023 mb high pressure center that is near
29N54W, to 28N75W, across south Florida, to a 1018 mb high
pressure center that is in the Gulf of Mexico near 26N84W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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