Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
AXNT20 KNHC 101159
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong ridge is across the Gulf of Mexico and inland E Mexico
being anchored by a 1037 mb high over W Kentucky near 37N87W. The
ridge builds behind a cold front in the SW N Atlc that become
stationary NE of the northern Bahamas to the Straits of Florida
to NW Cuba to the northern Yucatan Peninsula near 20N90W. A strong
pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure associated
with the front a surface trough in the Bay of Campeche is
producing NW gale force winds S of 21N W of 95W. This is
generating a large area of high seas from 13 to 19 ft. The ridge is
forecast to shift eastward today, thus decreasing the pressure
gradient in the Gulf and the gale winds, which are expected to
continue through tonight. Please read the High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the African Continent reaching
the Atlantic Ocean near 05N10W and continuing to 05N13W. The ITCZ
begins near 05N14W and continue along 03N31W to 03N51W. A surface
trough extends from 05N-10N along 35W. Active convection
continues along the ITCZ, where scattered moderate to strong is
observed from 03N-10N between 10W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The main concern for the Gulf continue to be a gale warning over
the SW basin. A strong ridge across the Gulf of Mexico and inland
E Mexico being anchored by a 1037 mb high over W Kentucky near
37N87W builds behind a cold front in the SW N Atlc that become
stationary NE of the northern Bahamas to the Straits of Florida to
NW Cuba to the northern Yucatan Peninsula near 20N90W. Strong
pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure associated
with the front a surface trough in the Bay of Campeche is
producing NW gale force winds S of 21N W of 95W. This is
generating a large area of high seas from 13 to 19 ft. Gale force
NW winds are expected to continue through tonight. Please refer to
special features for further details. Broken to overcast
clouds along with scattered to isolated showers are S of 27N E of
90W and in the SW Gulf S of 22N where tstms have developed. Fresh
to strong NE winds are from 22N to 26N W of 81W. The stationary
front will weaken today and start dissipating tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper ridge prevails over the basin with strong dry air
subsidence supporting fair weather over the NW Caribbean. Over the
central basin, a surface trough supported by a middle level
inverted trough extends from 17N73W to 10N75W. This surface
trough is under a upper level diffluent environment that supports
scattered showers S of Hispaniola between 68W and 76W. In the SW
Caribbean, the monsoon trough crossing Panama all the way to N
Colombia support scattered heavy showers and tstms S of 12N W of
77W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are occurring from 11N
to 16N between 65W and 77W. The trough will continue west across
the basin and enter Central America early Sun. Moderate to fresh
NE trades prevail across the remainder of the basin, except fresh
NE winds in the Yucatan Channel near an approaching stationary
front. Fresh to occasional strong trades are expected across the
south-central Caribbean mainly north of Colombia through late
today with trades increasing slightly through the remainder of
the weekend as the strong ridge affecting the Gulf of Mexico
shifts eastward into the western Atlantic. The stationary front
will meander across the Yucatan Channel, with associated
conditions across the Gulf spreading modestly into NW portions.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island due to strong subsidence
of dry air. A modest increase in low level moisture will spread
westward across the area today and should lead to passing
tradewind showers across the area. Generally fair conditions are
expected through the rest of the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N60W to
26N73W where it becomes stationary through the NW Bahamas to
northwestern Cuba to the N Yucatan Peninsula. Broken to overcast
cloudiness and isolated showers are observed west of the front.
Ahead of this front, a surface trough extends from 28N50W to
26N65W to 23N75W. The remainder of the basin, is dominated by a
surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 35N27W.
Expect the cold front in the west Atlantic to continue moving east
of the Bahamas while it drifts slightly SE across the Bahamas. As
the surface ridge behind this cold front begins to shift eastward
into the Atlantic overnight and Sat, look for increasing NE winds
and building seas behind the cold front. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.