Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 260556

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


Hurricane Maria is centered near 32.6N 73.2W at 26/0600 UTC or
about 195 nm southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, moving
north at 6 kt. Minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Maria is a very
large cyclone with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to
90 nm from the center. Scattered moderate convection extends out
to 240 nm from the center in the northeast semicircle. Dry air is
entraining into the overall circulation with scattered moderate
convection out to 150 nm in the southwest semicircle. The Morehead
City, N.C. WSR- 88D indicated narrow bands of scattered showers
approaching the N.C. coast between Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras
with additional showers over the northern Outer Banks and the
Albemarle Sound. NOAA Buoy 41025 just southeast of Cape Hatteras
recently reported seas to 14 FT. See the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for more details.

Hurricane Lee is centered near 30.2N 51.5W at 26/0300 UTC or
about 735 nm east of Bermuda. Lee is now moving to the west-
southwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Lee is a
small cyclone with scattered moderate isolated strong convection
confined to within 60 nm of the center. Lee is forecast to remain
a hurricane and turn toward the west Tuesday, and then move
toward the west-northwest by Wednesday. See the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.


A tropical wave extends along 35W/36W from 07N to 21N, moving
west at 10 kt. The wave shows up well in GOES high density winds
in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere. Most of the wave is
embedded within a fairly dry and stable environment per recent
SSMI TPW imagery. As such no significant convection is associated
with this tropical wave.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean along 67W/68W, from
07N to 20N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is situated on
the eastern periphery of an upper level anticyclone over the NW
Caribbean in an area dominated by mid to-upper level northerly
flow. No significant convection is noted at this time.


The monsoon trough extends from Senegal coast near 15N17W to
10N30W to 09N35W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from
08N38W to 09N44W to the coast of South America near 06N57W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N-10N
between 10W-14W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-09N
between 33W-40W.



Slight surface ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico with mostly 5-15
kt SE flow. Strongest winds are over the W Gulf. In the upper
levels, a large upper level trough is over the western half of the
U.S. with axis along 114W. Upper level diffluence E of the axis is
producing convection over Texas and Mexico between 95W-105W. An
upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 28N85W
with strong subsidence. Again upper level diffluence is SE of the
center producing showers and convection over W Cuba, the Straits
of Florida, and the Bahamas. Expect over the next 24 hours for an
increase of showers and convection over the Yucatan Channel,
Yucatan Peninsula, and the Bay of Campeche.


A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. Scattered showers are
well E of the wave axis, over the Leeward Islands, N of 14N
between 58W- 65W. A surface trough is over the W Caribbean from
21N79W to 14N80W. Scattered moderate convection is over most of
Cuba, Haiti, and Jamaica, from 16N-22N between 72W-83W. Much of
this convection is also enhanced by upper level diffluence.
Lastly, the eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is well
into the SW Caribbean extending from NE Nicaragua to N Colombia.
Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-16N between 77W-84W.
Expect over the next 24 hours for continued showers and convection
over the W Caribbean and Central America W of 70W.


Presently Haiti has more showers and convection than the Dominican
Republic. The precipitation is moving W with the easterlies.
Expect over the next 24 hours for more precipitation to advect
over the Island from the SE.


A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section
above for details. Outside the influence of Hurricanes Maria in
the western Atlantic and Lee in the central Atlantic, surface
ridging prevails across much of the remainder of the west-central
Atlantic, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 36N59W.

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