Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 291042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W SW TO 01S18W TO 04S27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 04S27W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 05S36W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 170
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS SW TO A
BASE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATE A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC...THUS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THESE REGIONS AND THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO S OF 25N. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GULF WHERE IS ANCHORED BY
A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 26N89W. WIND FLOW FROM THE N-NE OF 15 KT IS
S OF 25N E OF 90W...INCREASING TO 20 KT AT THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
WIND FLOW FROM THE S-SE OF 15 KT IS ON THE WESTERN GULF W OF
91W. LIGHTER VARIABLE WIND FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE REMAINDER
BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW
ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO 20N75W
SW TO 18N82W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG
WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
SUPPORTS THE FRONT AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT N OF 19N. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NW COLOMBIA THAT ENHANCES
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 15N.
WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR DOMINATING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER BASIN...WHICH IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE FRONT SUPPORT NW FLOW UP TO 20 KT W OF 79W. SIMILARLY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL
ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA SUPPORT TRADES OF 20 KT S
OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 77W. LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER BASIN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT
WHERE IT WILL START TO DISSIPATE SW TO HONDURAS...SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT.

HISPANIOLA...

SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN IS
OVER HAITI...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDING TO ADJACENT WATERS. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE MONDAY MORNING BUT LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NW ATLC
WATERS EXTENDS ALONG 30N63W SW TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
22N70W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO EASTERN
CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN
A TROUGH WITH BASE OVER SW GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
W OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N40W SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG 30N39W TO 25N38W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING
DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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