Tropical Weather Discussion
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001
AXNT20 KNHC 090604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...A 979 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC NEAR 41N62W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO
31N58W SW TO 21N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NORTHERN
PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS. ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM IS N OF OHIO
CENTERED NEAR 43N82W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE
EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN SW
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE HAPPENING AHEAD OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT N OF 29N W OF
78W WITH SEAS FROM 9 TO 12 FT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 KT
DURING TUE AND THEN DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE LATE TUE NIGHT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS N OF OHIO
CENTERED NEAR 43N82W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE
EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN SW
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND
IT SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS N OF 27N E OF 90W WITH SEAS RANGING
FROM 9 TO 13 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
LATER THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N11W
TO 05N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N26W TO
01N32W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 11W
AND 21W AND FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE HALF EASTERN U.S. AND THE
NW ATLC WATERS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A LOW PRES SYSTEM N OF OHIO
CENTERED NEAR 43N82W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE
EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD THEN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 28N82W TO
THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND IT SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS N OF 27N E OF 90W WITH SEAS
RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FT. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO W WINDS ARE N OF
24N E OF 95W. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES COVER THE REMAINDER
WESTERN BASIN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF FROM AT LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVELS...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOW WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE
EPAC TROPICAL WATERS...WHICH IS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE BASIN LATER THIS
MORNING...LEAVING IT WITH STRONG HIGH PRES ANCHORED OVER THE NW
WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS
ON THE GALE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 979 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 41N62W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N58W SW TO 21N70W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO 19N78W TO NORTHERN PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS
NEAR 10N81W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE
FRONT S OF 19N TO 84W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUES IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 63W AND 78W. LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT PROVIDE
STABILITY AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER EASTERN BASIN.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO START DISSIPATING LATE WED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT MAINTAINS
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO PANAMA
COASTAL WATERS IS FORECAST TO STALL THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING.
SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING
TUE AND WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 979 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 41N62W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N58W SW TO 21N70W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO NORTHERN PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS. ANOTHER
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS N OF OHIO CENTERED NEAR 43N82W FROM WHICH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE HAPPENING AHEAD OF THE
SECOND COLD FRONT N OF 29N W OF 78W WITH SEAS FROM 9 TO 12 FT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE
GALE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W OF 60W. THE REMAINDER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL LATER THIS MORNING AND
WILL START DISSIPATING WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE SW N ATLC LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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