Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 061200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are being forecast for the
area that is called IRVING. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that
follow the forecast that is valid until 07/1200 UTC, consists
of: the threat of cyclonic gale to storm in IRVING.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W, to
04N30W, and 10N43W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate
to strong from 02N to 08N between 30W and 40W. widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 02N to 07N between 18W and 30W.
A surface trough is along 49W/50W from 06N to 17N. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated moderate
strong from 11N to 13N between 44W and 48W. isolated moderate to
locally strong from 02N to 10N between 40W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO,
INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough passes through the central U.S.A. from
Missouri to Texas. The trough is supporting a Gulf of Mexico
frontal boundary. A stationary front passes through the Atlantic
Ocean near 31N80W, across the southeast U.S.A., to a 1004 mb low
pressure center that is near 31N91W along the SE Louisiana/SW
Mississippi border. A cold front extends from the 1004 mb low
pressure center, to 28N89W, 23N92W, and 18N95W in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Gulf of Mexico/the
SE U.S.A./the Atlantic Ocean from 27N northward between 73W and
86W. Rainshowers are possible in the Gulf of Mexico from 25N
southward from 90W westward.

Coastal Waters Forecast: TEXAS: a GALE watch is in effect, from
the Brownsville NWS office and from the Corpus Christi NWS
office. small craft exercise caution in other parts of the Texas
coastal waters. from LOUISIANA to FLORIDA: small craft
advisories have been issued for parts of the coastal waters.
small craft should exercise caution elsewhere. Please consult
the individual forecasts from each NWS office with marine
forecasting responsibilities for your area of concern.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KVBS.

MVFR: KEHC, KATP, KGRY, KSPR, KIKT, KVKY, KMIS, and KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: IFR in McAllen. MVFR in Edinburg. LIFR in Victoria. MVFR
in Port Lavaca. LIFR in Bay City. IFR in Beaumont/Port Arthur.
MVFR in Jasper. MVFR in Sugar Land. LIFR in Pearland, at the
Houston Intercontinental Airport, in Tomball, in Conroe, and in
Huntsville. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Lake Charles, Lafayette and New
Iberia, in Baton Rouge with light rain, in Patterson, and around
Lake Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: IFR from Natchez to McComb.
MVFR from Hattiesburg southward to the coast. ALABAMA: IFR in
the Mobile metropolitan area. IFR in Gulf Shores. LIFR in
Evergreen. IFR in Fort Rucker and Dothan. clearing skies
temporarily in the Mobile metropolitan area. FLORIDA: IFR at the
NAS in Pensacola. MVFR at the Pensacola International Airport,
in Milton and Crestview, and in Mary Esther and Destin. IFR in
Valparaiso. IFR at the NW Panama City Airport. Heavy rain has
ended for the moment in other parts of the Panama City
metropolitan area. rain has ended for the moment also in
Marianna. MVFR in Apalachicola. light rain in Tallahassee.
thunder and rain and IFR in Perry. thunder and heavy rain in
Cross City. IFR in Sarasota and Ft. Myers.MVFR at the NAS in Key
West.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea
from 70W westward. Upper level NE to E wind flow covers the
area between 60W and 70W.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level clouds,
from 13N northward between 60W and 84W, in surface easterly
wind flow.

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1020 mb high
pressure center, that is near 28N66W, across SE Cuba, toward the
border of eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 76W at the coast of
Colombia beyond NW Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 10N southward
between Colombia and 80W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 10N southward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level N-to-NE wind flow is moving across the island. Broad
upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea from
70W westward, and the Atlantic Ocean from 65W westward.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, across the area. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers
are possible across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and
coastal plains, in areas of broken low level to middle level
clouds. Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level
clouds, from 13N northward between 60W and 84W, in surface
easterly wind flow.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
La Romana: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. rain has ended for the
moment. Punta Cana: moderate rain. MVFR. ceiling at 1200 feet.
Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceiling.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that N wind flow will
move across Hispaniola during day one. An anticyclonic
circulation center will be about 150 nm to the NNE of the
eastern tip of Honduras. The anticyclonic circulation center
will move closer to western Jamaica during day one. The wind
flow will become NE during day two. The anticyclonic circulation
center will move toward Honduras. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500
MB shows that E-to-W oriented ridge will be in the Atlantic
Ocean, about 150 nm to the north of Hispaniola during day one.
Expect NE wind flow during day one. The ridge will stay to the
north of Hispaniola during day two. Expect more NE wind flow
during day two, with an inverted trough spanning the area during
the middle of the day. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows
that SE and E wind flow will move across the area during day
one, with an east-to-west oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. Day two
will consist of Easterly wind flow with the same ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N30W to 28N32W. The
trough is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N30W to
25N40W and 24N43W. The cold front is dissipating from 24N43W to
20N58W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
from 24N to 27N between 30W and 35W. rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 19N northward between 26W and 40W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the
NW of the cold front/surface trough. It is moving around a 1020
mb high pressure center that is near 28N66W.

A surface ridge is to the east of the cold front/surface trough.
The ridge passes through 32N14W, across the Canary Islands, to
22N26W and 13N28W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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