Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 272337

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
737 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.


Gale-force winds are forecast for the METEO-FRANCE area that is
called IRVING until 28/1200 UTC. For more details, please refer
to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast that is listed on the


The Monsoon Trough extends SW from the coast of western Africa
near 10N15W to 05N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
continues from 05N18W to the coast of South America near 01S46W.
Minimal convection is associated with the ITCZ axis.



A weakening frontal boundary extends from 30N88W to 25N96W.
Moderate to fresh northeast winds are north of the front, and no
convection is associated with the front over the water. A ridge
extending from high pressure over the Atlantic supports mainly
moderate southerly winds over most of the basin this afternoon.
Over the next 24 hours the front will gradually dissipate. Strong
southerly flow will then develop over the western Gulf by Friday


High pressure well northeast of the area and lower pressures over
South America support moderate to fresh trade winds in the central
Caribbean. Locally strong winds are occurring near the coast of
northeast Colombia and the northern coast of Honduras. An upper
trough supports scattered showers and thunderstorms near the
Windward Passage. Dry air and subsidence are limiting convection
across the remainder of the Caribbean. Over the next 24 hours the
showers and thunderstorms will increase over the southwestern
Caribbean in response to low level convergence across the area.
Otherwise, little change is expected.


Low level moisture and daytime heating is supporting terrain
induced showers this afternoon. An upper trough east of the area
will move toward the island tonight, enhancing shower and
thunderstorm activity across the area tonight through Friday.


A coastal trough extends from 32N78W to 28N80W. An upper trough
southeast of the Bahamas supports numerous showers and clusters
of thunderstorms from 19N to 24N between 71W and 75W, with an
outflow boundary moving southeastward from 23N72W to 20N74W.
Winds become NW and increase to 30 kt northwest of this boundary.
High pressure centered over the north central Atlantic dominates
the remainder of the western and central Atlantic. A 1008 mb low
centered near 33N26W supports minimal gale force winds north of
31N. Please see the special features section for more details. A
trough extends south from this low from 31N25W to 29N25W to
26N33W. A low amplitude tropical wave has moved west of the coast
of Africa during the past 24 hours, and currently extends along
19N. This wave will likely become less defined during the next
couple of days. Over the next 24 hours showers and thunderstorms
will gradually diminish over the Bahamas and surrounding waters.

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