Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 182332

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.


A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis
from 14N36W to 02N37W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is
embedded in a 700 mb trough as indicated in model fields. SSMI
total precipitable water imagery also shows a very moist area
around the wave. Isolated moderate convection is over the
southern portion of the wave from 02N-10N between 33W-41W.

A tropical wave is in the western tropical Atlantic with axis
from 21N56W to 07N55W, moving westward at 25-30 kt. This wave is
embedded in a broad 700 mb trough as indicated in model fields,
and is accompanied by a modest surge of moisture. Isolated
moderate convection is inland from 05N-07N between 53W-59W.
Scattered showers are elsewhere from 12N-15N between 56W-59W.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis from
19N82W to 05N84W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is
embedded in 700 mb trough, and is in a surge of deep moisture
that covers the SW Caribbean Sea. Clusters of scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection are over the SW Caribbean, and
Central America from Panama through Honduras from 06N-17N
between 79W-88W.


The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east tropical
Atlantic near 15N17W and continues to 08N30W to 05N40W. The ITCZ
begins near 05N40W and continues to the coast of South America
near 02N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is along the coast of west Africa from 07N-11N between 12W-18W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-09N between 21W-27W.



A surface ridge extends along 30N from N Florida to E Texas.
Gentle breeze winds from the SE cover the Gulf. The base of an
upper level ridge is over the Gulf of Mexico with easterly flow
and considerable upper level moisture. Clusters of scattered
moderate convection are over most of the Gulf to include the
northern Gulf States, Florida, W Cuba, and the Yucatan
Peninsula. Expect in 24 hours for a surface trough to form in
the Bay of Campeche with additional convection. Also expect
surface ridging to remain over the northern Gulf of Mexico.


A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean. See above. The
surface pressure gradient between Atlantic ridging and lower
pressures over Colombia supports fresh breeze to strong breeze
tradewinds over the central Caribbean. A small upper level low
is currently over the SW Caribbean near 11N81W. Another upper
level low is centered over W Cuba near 21N81W. The latter upper
level low is contributing to scattered moderate convection over
Hispaniola, Cuba, and Jamaica. Expect over the next 24 hours for
the tropical wave to move west with convection.


Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over Hispaniola
due to diurnal heating, low-level moisture, and the upper level
low over Cuba. Expect similar convection over the next 24 hours.


Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer
to the tropical waves section for more details. Patches of
scattered showers are over the western Atlantic west of 60W to
include the Bahamas. A large 1030 mb high is over the central
Atlantic near 36N45W producing fair weather. Expect the tropical
waves to be the dominate features in the tropical Atlantic over
the next 48 hours.

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