Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
AXNT20 KNHC 161119
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
The center of Hurricane Nicole at 16/0900 UTC is near 39.2N
47.7W. Nicole is moving toward the E, or 90 degrees, 5 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 75 knots with gusts to 90 knots.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 36N to
44N between 42W and 54W. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate
Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
and the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 120 nm to 180 nm
on either side of the wave.
A surface trough is along 59W from 11N to 17N. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
14N to 16N between 58W and 59W. rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 12N to 19N between 54W and 60W.
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 07N19W 08N23W 07N32W and 07N42W. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong from 06N to 08N between 25W and
28W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters to
the south of the Monsoon Trough between 10W and 25W, and within
90 nm on either side of the Monsoon Trough between 34W and 44W.
Isolated moderate from the Monsoon Trough to 12N from 21W
A surface trough is along 11N44W 07N45W 03N46W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate elsewhere within 200 nm on
either side of the trough.
...THE GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level trough is moving through the area from the
Florida Big Bend and Tampa/St. Petersburg, and the NE Gulf of
Mexico, into the central Gulf of Mexico, and beyond NE coastal
Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor imagery on the northern side of the trough. A 1013
mb low pressure center is near 20N94W. A surface trough is along
96W from 24N southward, in the SW corner of the area. An east-to-
west oriented shear line is along 23N between 80W and 90W.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate across the area.
...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...
MVFR: KSPR and KVOA.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...
TEXAS: LIFR in Jasper and Conroe. IFR in Tomball. MVFR in
Beaumont/Port Arthur. LOUISIANA: LIFR in parts of the Lake
Charles metropolitan area, Lafayette, New Iberia, Baton Rouge,
Galliano, and Patterson. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in McComb. MVFR in
Biloxi. ALABAMA: MVFR in Dothan. FLORIDA: light rain near
Milton. MVFR in Mary Esther. IFR in Marianna and Tallahassee.
LIFR in Perry.
...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level trough is along 82W/83W from western Panama to
13N in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is
along the coast of Central America, from 17N to 11N, covering
the eastern sections of Honduras to southern Nicaragua. The
monsoon trough is along 10N/11N between 74W in Colombia, and NW
Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 09N
to 13N between 73W in Colombia and 80W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong elsewhere from 19N southward between
80W and 85W.
An upper level ridge extends from the Gulf of Uraba
of Colombia northwestward, into the NW corner of the Caribbean
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
16/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.41 in Curacao,
0.04 in Bermuda, and 0.02 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.
Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area. Convective
precipitation: Isolated moderate from 17N northward from 65W
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Santo
Domingo: VFR/no ceilings. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago
and Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during all of day one, and for the first
half of day two. W wind flow will move across the area for the
second half of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows
that anticyclonic wind flow will span the area for the first
half of day one, followed by SW and W wind flow for the rest of
day one. Expect W to SW wind flow across the area during day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB show that broad
anticyclonic wind flow will move across Hispaniola during day
one,ending with an east-to-west oriented ridge across the area.
Expect SW wind flow during day two.
...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level central Atlantic Ocean trough supports a frontal
trough that passes through 32N42W to 24N50W 22N60W. A shear line
continues from 22N60W to 23N70W, across the southern Bahamas to
23N80W near Cuba, into the Gulf of Mexico near 23N90W.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate within 180 nm to
east and southeast of the cold front, within 90 nm on either
side of the shear line between 60W and 73W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from the shear line to 27N
between 73W and 79W.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the eastern Atlantic Ocean
from 10N northward from 40W eastward. An upper level trough
supports a 32N23W 27N30W 25N40W surface trough. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N northward
between Africa and the trough. A second surface trough is along
22N32W 18N36W 15N40W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible within 180 nm to the southeast of the trough.
A 1015 mb surface high pressure center is near 19N49W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow is within 120 nm to 180 nm of the center.
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