Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 241040

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
540 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

A broad area of low pressure focused on a 1004 mb centered across
the SW North Atlc waters near 29N78W is producing near gale to
gale force E-SE winds generally N of an occluded front extending
from the low center to the triple point near 29N74W to 28N72W.
From the triple point...a cold front extends S-SW to 25N72W to
eastern Cuba near 20N75W to 17N80W in the western Caribbean Sea.
A warm front also extends from the triple point to 22N66W. The
gale force conditions are expected to persist through 25/0600 UTC
as the system eventually tracks N of the discussion area by late
Friday night. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to
02N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
02N17W to 01N20W to 02N24W to the Equator near 28W to 01N33W to
the Equator near 39W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 04N
between 10W-44W.


Much of the Gulf basin is under the influence of a middle to upper
level ridge providing dry air and overall subsidence this
morning. A weak surface ridge results with axis extending from
central Georgia through a 1012 mb high near 29N87W to the northern
Yucatan peninsula coast. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
prevail E of 90W with a few isolated showers possible across the
SE Gulf waters as the Special Features low pressure area
continues to move NE across the SW North Atlc region. W of
90W...moderate to fresh S-SE winds are occurring as a developed
area of low pressure moves across the mid-Mississippi River
valley. The associated cold front with this low pressure system to
the N is forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts
Friday night providing another round of fresh N-NE winds in its
wake across the basin during the weekend.

Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor over
the Caribbean this morning supporting a cold front extending
across eastern Cuba from 20N75W SW to 17N80W. A pre-frontal
surface trough also extends from across western Hispaniola near
20N72W to 16N76W. Isolated showers are occurring within 120 nm E
of the surface trough boundary. Isolated showers are also
occurring N of 18N in association with the cold front and
southwestern periphery of the Special Features low pressure system
centered across the SW North Atlc region. With the frontal system
across the north-central portion of the basin...the usual trade
wind flow is disrupted at this time keeping winds generally light
to moderate. Within mostly E-SE winds E of the surface trough
boundary...isolated showers are occurring across the Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico mainly NE of a line from 14N61W to the
Mona Passage near 18N67W. The cold front is expected to drift
eastward and move N of the region by late Friday night with a
more normal trade wind synoptic pattern expected across the basin
by Saturday.

Isolated showers across the island continue as a surface trough
extends across the Turks and Caicos islands near 21N71W to 16N76W
across western portions of the island. A cold front still remains
to the W across eastern Cuba and will gradually slide eastward
and lift NE of the Windward Passage region during the day Friday
and Friday night. Conditions are expected to improve by Saturday.

The Special Features occluded low pressure area continues to
influence much of the SW North Atlc waters W of 65W. Scattered
to numerous showers and scattered tstms are occurring generally N
of 23N between 62W-72W...and N of 30N between 72W-76W. Aside from
the near gale to gale force winds occurring to the N and NE of
the occlusion...fresh to strong southerly winds are occurring E of
the cold front extending from 28N72W to 22N73W to eastern Cuba
near 20N75W. The low is expected to move NE of the discussion
area by Saturday. To the E...another cold front extends into the
discussion area near 32N39W to 27N45W becoming stationary to
21N56W to 21N63W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are
occurring N of 25N within 120 nm E of the front...with isolated
showers occurring elsewhere within 120 nm either side of the
boundary. Finally...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high centered
S-SE of the Azores near 35W26W.

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