Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 221041

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.


High pressure building behind a cold front moving off the Texas
coast tonight will tighten the pressure gradient along the
Veracruz coast of southern Mexico, and induce gale force winds
south of 20N west of 95W Monday through Tuesday.


A tropical wave along 47W from 10N-21N is moving west at 10 kt.
It is embedded in an area of moderate moisture as seen on SSMI
TPW imagery, and troughing at 700 mb. Scattered showers are from
09N-19N between 33W-49W.

A tropical wave moving into Central America extends from 21N87W
to 10N86W, and moving W at 15 kt. The wave is embedded in deep
moisture with a well defined surface trough, and broad troughing
at 700 mb. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 14N-
22N between 83W-88W.


A monsoon trough is near the African coast from 09N13W to
07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 07N18W to 07N54W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 21W-33W.



A high pressure ridge prevails across the NE Gulf. Widespread
showers in the SE Gulf are being enhanced by divergent upper
level winds between an upper level anticyclone in the NW
Caribbean and a trough moving into the western Gulf. A cold
front will enter the NW Gulf tonight, and a tropical wave will
move across the Yucatan peninsula through Monday. Strong
northerly winds are expected behind the cold front Monday and


A tropical wave over the Gulf of Honduras will move across
Central America later today. The eastern extent of the E Pacific
monsoon trough over Costa Rica and Panama is producing scattered
moderate convection S of 11N. A large upper level anticyclone is
centered near 19N83W with extensive moisture. Strong subsidence
is over the E Caribbean E of 75W. Saharan Airmass Layer Imagery
also shows a plume of dry air and dust over the E Caribbean E of
67W. Expect continued fair weather over most of the basin during
the next 24 hours.


Fair weather prevails over Hispaniola except for a few high
level clouds. Expect little change during the next 24 hours as
relatively dry subsident air remains in place over the island.


A dissipating cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N48W to
27N62W. Diffluence east of an upper low centered near 27N65W is
enhancing scattered showers associated with the front. High
pressure is north of 30N on both sides of the front, in the
eastern Atlantic and over the eastern U.S. An upper level low
centered near 22N45W is producing scattered showers east of the
low due to upper level diffluence.

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