Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 292113
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
313 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THERE IS SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH LIGHTNING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA AND THE NORTHERN HALF TOO. THERE IS A DECENT BOUNDARY
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GREATER DENVER AREA RIGHT NOW. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN CWA RIGHT NOW AND MODELS
HAVE IT THROUGH BY MID EVENING. THERE IS NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN. THERE IS WEAK
DOWNWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING...THEN
PERHAPS BECOMING WEAK DRAINAGE AFTER 06Z. SATURDAY HAS
SOUTHEASTERLIES MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE AROUND
THIS EVENING...THEN THINGS DRY OUT PRETTY GOOD BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH IN THE SUBSIDENCE. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED ON SATURDAY
TOO...THERE WILL BE SOME IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THERE IS
LIMITED CAPE THIS EVENING OVER THE CWA AND IT IS MOSTLY GONE BY
06Z. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THERE IS LIMITED CAPE PROGGED MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. DEW POINT PROGS SHOW MAINLY 40S F READINGS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON THE
QPF FIELDS THIS EVENING...THEN NOTHING FROM 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY.
FROM 18Z TO 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THERE IS A TAD OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CWA ONLY. WILL GO WITH "SCATTERED" OR "CHANCE" FOR POPS
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THEM TO NOTHING BY OR
JUST AFTER 06Z EVERYWHERE. THEN NO POPS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WILL GO WITH 20%S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS MAINLY. FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE
4-7 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE
STATE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER...GUIDANCE REMAINS WARMER THAN OUR FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SUSPECT SOME COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND SOIL MOISTURE
WILL HOLD THINGS BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES...BUT LOWER TO MID 80S
ON THESE TWO WARMEST DAYS LOOKS ALRIGHT. MODELS MORE CONSISTENT
HOLDING THE MAIN PART OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WEST OF US THROUGH
THE WEEK...BUT THERE ARE STILL HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING
OVER US IN SW FLOW ABOUT WEDNESDAY. STILL ENOUGH TO SHOW A LITTLE
COOLING/MOISTENING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THOUGH THIS MAY TURN
OUT TO BE JUST A SMALL CHANGE. HINTS OF STRONGER TROUGHING IN THE
ECMWF...COULD BE ENOUGH TO POP SOME RIDGING OVER US THURSDAY.
COULD WIND UP WITH A QUIETER DAY THURSDAY AND THEN MORE ACTIVITY
IN MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PERHAPS A NICE DRYLINE ON THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...BUT JUST HINTS OF THIS IN THE MODELS SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT DIA UNTIL MID EVENING
...THEN WEAK...PERHAPS DRAINAGE WINDS MAY COMMENCE. SPEEDS WILL
BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AFTER 03Z. SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. CEILINGS COULD GET DOWN TO BKN040-BKN050 THROUGH ABOUT
04Z WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. CEILINGS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING INCREASING SNOWMELT STARTING SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH FLOWS IN
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WATER WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM THROUGH NEXT WEEK SO
HIGH FLOWS WILL CONTINUE ON THE SOUTH PLATTE AS WELL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...RJK
HYDROLOGY...GIMMESTAD


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