Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 051005
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
405 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015

CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA RIGHT NOW. THERE IS SOME FOG
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. NORMAL DRAINAGE WIND PATTERNS
ARE IN PLACE RIGHT NOW. MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...THEN WEAK UPPER TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH MOVES EAST WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR THE CWA TONIGHT. THE QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION TODAY...THEN
WEAK UPWARD THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO
BE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...IT
LOOKS PRETTY DRY...JUST SOME IN THE MID LEVELS FOR THE NEXT TWO
PERIODS. DEW POINT PROGS SHOW MOSTLY 40S F READINGS FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS TODAY...HOWEVER THE NAM HAS HIGHER VALUES
OVER THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THE MODELS ARE PUSHING
HIGHER VALUES BACK INTO THE THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE CAPE IS LIMITED...HOWEVER THE NAM HAS PRETTY
HIGH VALUES OVER THE FAR EAST WITH ALL THE MOISTURE IT STICKS WITH
LATE IN THE DAY. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW MEAGER TO NO MEASURABLE
RAINFALL FOR THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL GO WITH
10-20% POPS...MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FOR
TEMPERATURES.. THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 1-4 C WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY`S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER COLORADO THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES
TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE IN THE MORNING. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MODERATE AND WESTERLY WITH JUST SOME ISOLD POPS CLOSER TO THE
WYOMING AND NEBRASKA BORDERS IN THE AFTN. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BUILD UP A BIT AND SHIFT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. AS IT DOES THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO CENTRAL CA MIDDAY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND BE OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...SO SOME HIGHER POPS THEN. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER
NORTHEAST TX SATURDAY. THE OVERALL POSITION OF THE RIDGE DOES NOT
CHANGE MUCH ON SUNDAY...BUT LESS MOISTURE IS APPARENT IN THE QPF
FIELDS SUNDAY AFTN/EVNG. BEST CHC OF TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE PALMER
DIVIDE SOUTHWARD SUNDAY EVENING. ON MONDAY...THE RIDGE STARTS TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH BETTER MOISTURE REFLECTED IN THE QPF
FIELDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. SFC HIGH
WILL BE IN PLACE AT THAT TIME WITH SOME ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE
POSSIBLY. NOT MUCH CHANGE ON TUESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK
WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH ENOUGH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UNDER THE
RIDGE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN/EVNG.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015

DRAINAGE WINDS ARE BLOWING AT DIA RIGHT NOW. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE NO
CEILING ISSUES AND RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RJK


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