Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 030954
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
354 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX DRIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING. THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
FEATURE...AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
COLORADO THIS MORNING AS SPEED MAX CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
THERE IS A CHANCE THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN JET MAX LOCATION. IF THAT OCCURS THEN STORMS COULD
EVENTUALLY TAP INTO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND INTENSIFY.
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
PRESENTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF WHEN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION FIRES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED QUITE A FEW SCENARIOS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ARE IN PLAY TODAY GIVEN THE STRONG SPEED MAX TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND MORNING CONVECTION...SO OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS RELATIVELY LOW. THAT SAID...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLAY TODAY
FOR POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER AND EVEN A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS GIVEN
FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-1800 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LARGE HAIL
AND HIGH WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENTLY FAST TO REDUCE THREAT OF HYDROLOGIC ISSUES...BUT
STILL POTENTIAL FOR URBAN STREET AND BURN SCAR FLOODING AS
STRONGER STORMS STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ONE INCH IN 30
MINUTES.

FORECAST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD AGAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW...ALONG WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...WILL LIKELY KEEP A FEW STORMS GOING
ON THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM NEW MEX INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. THE MDLS SHOW
SOME QPF SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. BY THAT TIME...
THE RDG WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN
THE MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90...WITH
WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ON SUNDAY...SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE
DAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND CLIP NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY EVENING. AS IT
DOES...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE
FRONT RANGE. POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER
OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE WESTERLY WITH
THE RIDGE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. TUESDAY MAY BE ANOTHER COOL DAY
AS WELL BUT THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL START TO REBUILD OVER UT AND WESTERN CO BY
MIDWEEK...WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHERN CO. STILL SOME
POTENTIAL THERE FOR A TROUGH TO BRUSH THE CWA FM THE NORTH SO WL
KEEP SLGT CHC AFTN/EVNG THUNDERSTORMS AND LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID
80S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ISOLATED MORNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OF THE FRONT
RANGE AIRPORTS AT THIS TIME. BY AFTERNOON...AIRMASS WILL
DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
STORMS. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE ENOUGH BY 23Z-02Z FOR TEMPO
VARIABLE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND THUNDER. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH


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