Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 200036
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
636 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH COLORADO. ALSO KEPT LOW POPS IN ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

DIURNAL CONVECTION TAKING OFF ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND WILL BE
SPREADING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. PLAINS INITIALLY CAPPED BUT
ONCE OUTFLOWS START TO MOVE EAST THEY WILL GENERATE SOME NEW
CONVECTION. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS MAY SKIP OVER THE DRIER AIR
IN THE DENVER AREA AND THEN CONSOLIDATE IN THE BETTER MOISTURE ON
THE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHOWER BAND WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING IT SHOULD WEAKEN
COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LARGER SCALE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THIS WILL NOT
SURVIVE COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW
SPRINKLES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE LIFT WILL BE EAST OF COLORADO WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...400-800 J/KG ON THE
PLAINS AND EVEN LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
STORMS ON THE PLAINS AND A FEW LATE DAY STORMS ON THE PLAINS...BUT
MORE LIMITED IN NUMBER AND WEAK. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD...A MILD NIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER THEN SIMILAR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING UP INTO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SEE SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LACK ONTO ANY ONE
PARTICULAR MODEL. OVERNIGHT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NEWRD OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE AT ITS DEEPEST OVER
COLORADO ON THURSDAY...SECOND ONLY TO THAT OF TODAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL EAST OF THE MTNS
ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE PLAINS.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE RAISED POPS ANOTHER 10 PCT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES HIGHER ON GFS AND LOWER ON ECMWF.
SO MAY OR MAY NOT SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MODELS SPLIT THE THE UPPER TROUGH INTO TWO LOBES ON FRIDAY. THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE LOBE RACING NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO AND OVER THE
DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH A SECOND POTENTIALLY STRONGEST
PIECE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. COULD SEE ANOTHER BAND OF MONSOON MOISTURE PASSING
OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HELP TO FUEL ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS ON THE PLAINS AND SCATTERED STORMS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. BY SATURDAY...THE SECOND TROUGH
LOBE SWINGS CLOSER TO COLORADO CAUSING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY. THIS SHIFT IN FLOW DEFLECTS THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
AWAY FROM COLORADO AND OVER THE SRN/CNTRL GREAT PLAINS. SO SATURDAY
LOOKS A BIT DRIER AND WARMER. BY SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE WESTERN
TROUGH AND ITS BATCH OF RELATIVELY COOL AND MOIST AIR MOVING OVER
THE STATE. ALSO SEE A COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH ACRS NERN COLORADO
SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER AND WETTER. SUNDAY
MAY ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF A STRETCH OF COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
WETTER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A COUPLE WAVES OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DENVER AREA...ONE IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER THIS EVENING...WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFTS.
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...LIGHTER
WINDS AFTER THAT BUT STILL VARIABLE DIRECTIONS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD


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