Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KBOU 300933
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
333 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY. AS A
RESULT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND BRING A PLUME OF
BETTER MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON THE
PLAINS...IT WILL BE VERY HARD TO DEVELOP ANY MEANINGFUL CONVECTION
AS THE LOW LEVELS ARE VERY DRY AND BARELY ANY CAPE. MAIN THREAT
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS AS WE
SHOULD BE FULLY MIXED WITH A DRY ADIABATIC THERMAL PROFILE TO NEAR
500 MB BY VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUSTS TO 50
MPH POSSIBLE FROM THESE HIGH BASED CLOUDS/VIRGA. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE EVENTUALLY INCREASES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX TO OUR NORTH GETS
CLOSER...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THEN.

THE HEART OF THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT RIGHT ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS. THE RECORD FOR
DENVER IS 98 SET IN 1990 AND AT THIS TIME EXPECT US TO STAY A
COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF THIS AS WE SHOULD SEE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
INCREASE THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE PLAINS...LOOK FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM LOW TEMPERATURES. SOME SMOKE STILL NOTED ON THE PLAINS WITH
ONLY GRADUAL DISPERSION EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH BETTER
MIXING AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAY SEE MORE SMOKE ARRIVE BEHIND
FRONT LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON MON AS A WK COOL FNT
MOVES ACROSS NERN CO IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE A WK
DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE AREA MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING. THUS
SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. AS FOR HIGH READINGS WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER NERN CO.

FOR TUE AND WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SWLY.  SOME LIMITED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUE BRINGING ANOTHER CHC
OF STORMS TO THE MTNS WITH A SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE.  850-700 MB TEMPS
WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ON TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  ON WED THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
WITH A DROP IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS IN THE MTNS. AS
FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS NERN
CO.

BY THU AND FRI THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE SWLY WITH SOME
INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE POSSIBLE.  WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC
OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS.  HIGHS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABV NORMAL BOTH DAYS
ACROSS NERN CO.  FOR SAT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SWLY WITH SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STILL OVER THE AREA.  THUS WILL KEEP IN A
SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WK FNT MAY MOVE INTO
NERN CO WHICH MAY DROP TEMPS BACK TO NR SEASONAL LEVELS AND BRING
A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THREAT OF MICROBURST WINDS FROM HIGH
BASED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
FROM 00Z-04Z WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KNOTS AND BRIEF AIRPORT SHUTOFFS.
AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WE SHOULD SEE VARIABLE
WIND GUSTS TO 25-35 KNOTS AFFECT THE AIRPORTS BUT THE STRONGER
GUSTS WOULD BE MORE ISOLATED. WILL ADD A TEMPO VARIABLE WIND TO
THE TAFS IN THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME OF 00Z-03Z. CHANCE OF ANY
THUNDER IS VERY LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST BUT INSTRUMENT APPROACHES
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SMOKE AND LIMITED SLANT
VISIBILITY.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TOWARD 15Z-18Z. THEN DIURNAL TREND OF A MORE
EAST/SOUTHEAST COMPONENT SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
BACK TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF VARIABLE
MICROBURST WINDS. FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL
TURN WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AND POSSIBLY BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMOKE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.