Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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558
FXUS65 KBOU 180334
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
834 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

No updates planned for this evening, current forecast on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

Quiet weather continues through Wednesday under the influence of
the slowly moving mid and upper level trough. It is currently located
over the 4 corners region and by Wednesday evening it becomes
elongated from the southwest to northeast because of the building
ridge across the Great Basin. During this same period it is slowly
advected northeast. A dry northeast mid and upper level flow
dominates the short term with weak westerly downslope winds across
the mountains and foothills. No precipitation expected area-wide
through Wednesday evening with mostly sunny skies. With the decent
snow melt that occurred today, and warm advection at 700 mb,
expect temperatures to be 7-10 degrees warmer across the urban
corridor, reaching the mid 50s on Wednesday. Downslope warming
does not get much past the Denver metro area so areas further east
will not see as much warming, likely topping out near 50.
In the mountains, winds will remain light for mid-January
standards and temperatures will be in the low 30s on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

Upper ridging and weak flow aloft will continue over the state
through Thursday as an upper trough strengthens over the west
coast. By Thursday evening, moisture aloft will begin increasing
over the mountains and western Colorado as the upper trough
approaches the state and takes on a negatively tilted orientation.
Mountain areas should begin picking up some snow by Friday morning
as the weakening trough moves over the state. Falling heights will
spread across the state into the weekend as another short wave
trough moves across the 4-corners. This should keep an unsettled
pattern in the mountains with a small chance of snow showers
continuing through the weekend.

Sunday night and Monday will see upper ridging move over the state
ahead of a developing trough that is expected to strengthen and
then move over the southwestern U.S. Monday night and Tuesday.
Each of the long range models show this to be a potent system
with the ECMWF showing the strongest and deepest development. The
Canadian model is the slowest of the group with the GFS somewhere
in the middle and more open than the ECMWF. Quasi-geostrophic
diagnostics analysis indicates there will be quite a bit of lift
from the system, so the entire northeast quarter of the state may
see at least some precipitation.

Temperature-wise, Thursday will be the warmest day of the lot
before some cooling Friday and through the weekend, with afternoon
highs around seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 831 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

VFR for the next 24 hrs with no aviation impacts. Generally light
winds throughout the day Wednesday out of west and south-southwest.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Cooper
SHORT TERM...Schlatter
LONG TERM...Dankers
AVIATION...Cooper



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