Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 261028
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
428 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DROP FROM MONTANA TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY...BRUSHING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. LOW LEVELS
ARE PRETTY DRY NOW AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF STABILITY WITH
SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THERE WILL BE A
FAIRLY DEEP ELEVATED SATURATED LAYER OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.
WILL HANG ON TO SOME LOW POPS IN THE CORNER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY
VIRGA ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS AND LESS FURTHER WEST. STILL SOME
LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL WHERE
THE VIRGA MAY REACH THE GROUND. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN AGAIN TODAY...BUT THERE WILL NOT QUITE BE AS MUCH FLOW NOR
MIXING AS THERE WAS YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
HANGING ON FURTHER EAST. FORECAST TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD...LOWERED
THEM SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT IN LINE WITH THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
WEST OF THE CWA FRIDAY INTO MID DAY SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY NIGHT
...A MINOR UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ZONAL FLOW AT JET LEVEL. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY ACCORDING TO
THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS IS BENIGN FRIDAY AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION LATE AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND
DOWNSLOPING ON FRIDAY...WITH NORMAL DRAINAGE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
WEAKER DOWNSLOPING IS PROGGED SATURDAY WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW
LEVEL GRADIENT IN PLACE. SOME UPSLOPE IS PROGGED LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
AROUND BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS
A TAD OF CAPE OVER THE HIGHER AREAS OF THE CWA LATE DAY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE IS A TAD OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON THE QPF
FIELDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY EVENING. FOR POPS...WILL GO A
"SLIGHT CHANCE" LATE DAY FRIDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK AND THERE
WILL BE A WEAK TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE IS
SPARSE ON THE ECMWF...WITH MORE ON THE GFS...BUT EITHER ONE SHOWS
ANY SUBSTAINTIAL WEATHER FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



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