Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 051754
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1054 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO DECREASES AND MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
LATE THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...MORE SO RIGHT ON THE DIVIDE RIGHT NOW.
THEY ARE DECREASING. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS HAS FAIRLY
DECENT NORTHWESTERLIES WINDS BLOWING AT THIS TIME. WILL MAKE SOME
POP...WEATHER...AND CLOUD FIXES ON THE GFE GRIDS BASED ON REAL
DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO GRADUALLY WORKING EAST INTO KANSAS THIS
MORNING. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES OVER EASTERN COLORADO OF ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES
AND ACROSS MOUNTAIN TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE. THE
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS MORNING OVER THESE AREAS AS DRY AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS
WORKS INTO COLORADO. BY THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO BUT STILL SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER OVER
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER COLORADO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-40 MPH RANGE
BY LATER TNT IN NORMAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE STATE. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH OVER
THE STATE WITH A 115 KT JET DIGGING ON THE BACKSIDE. A STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME
MIXING OF THE AIRMASS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON....EXPECT WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO INCREASE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A MAX OF 55-60KT
CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW BETWEEN 00-06Z. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING
TO NEED ANY HIGH WIND WARNING AS THERE IS NO GOOD EFFECTIVE MEAN
STATE CRITICAL LAYER TO HELP ACCELERATE AND PUSH DOWN ANY HIGHER
WINDS. OVERALL...IT WILL BE WINDY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP SQUEEZE OUT ANY REMAINING
MOISTURE OUT OF THE AIRMASS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR THE HIGH NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING PATTERN. INCREASED TEMPERATURES JUST LEE OF ANY
MOUNTAIN RANGE...INCLUDING THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

EXPECT WINDIER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY OVER THE PLAINS AS A
DISTURBANCE PUSHES OVERHEAD WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUING. 50 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 830 MB OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...SO GUSTS COULD APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA. FOR NOW HAVE GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE...MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN STATE BORDER AND THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS.
DEPENDING ON ANY REMAINING SNOW ON THE GROUND...AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A DRY AND WARMING PATTERN THROUGH THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE AT DIA...THEY SHOULD ADHERE TO NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE SHOULD BE NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......RJK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION.....RJK



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