Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 280313
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
913 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

LOOKING LIKE THE THREAT OF CONVECTION IS OVER...STILL A SLIM
CHANCE THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE STORMS WILL CLIP THE NORTHEAST
CORNER. GOT NOTHING EAST OF THE DRYLINE EAST OF AKRON OR LIMON
AT PEAK HEATING AND IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS ANYTHING TO
FORCE SOMETHING NOW. TRIMMED BACK THE REMAINING POPS AND SPED UP
THE CLEARING A COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO. DEWPOINTS HAVE DECREASED INTO THE 40S OVER THE
WESTERN PALMER AND IN METRO DENVER. AN APPARENT WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO HAS HAS SOME INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ALL OF THIS TO CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE NORTHEAST AND IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS BUT THE
ONLY THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST.

TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WE EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO
DIMINISH FROM THE WEST...ENDING CONVECTION FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
SKIES. LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER.

TUESDAY WILL BE A COOLER DAY...WITH A STABLE AIRMASS ON THE
PLAINS...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY...AND THOSE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHC OF TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL
ON WEDNESDAY. THE AMS WILL BE COOL...DRY AND MOSTLY STABLE. ISOLD
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH
THE RIDGE BACK OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY AT THAT TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90 BY THAT TIME WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE FOR ISOLD AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVR THE WEST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STILL HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY...WITH ISOLD POPS MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTN/EVNG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 909 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO WEST AT KDEN AND
SHOULD STAY THAT WAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES BETWEEN 07Z AND
08Z. KAPA WILL LIKELY SEE A SHIFT TO W OR NW IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. PRETTY WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IN WYOMING SO WHILE
THE DIRECTION IN THE DENVER AREA WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO NORTH THE
SPEEDS WILL BE REDUCED FROM THE BLOCKING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD


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