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000
FXUS65 KBOU 072116
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
316 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

A DOUBLE BARRELED COLD FRONT WAS RACING SOUTH THROUGH
ERN WY/WRN NE ATTM. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...THE TAIL END
OF AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SPAWNED BY STRONG T-STORMS LATE LAST
NIGHT IN WRN SOUTH DAK/NWRN NE SWEPT SOUTH ACRS NERN CO EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WEAK SURGE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BRIEFLY CAPPED
RISING TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS...BUT WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF STG
JULY SUNSHINE TO GO SHOULD SEE TEMPS NUDGE UP AT LEAST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF DEGS AT MANY LOCALES. HIT 100 DEGS IN DENVER AT 2015Z.
RECORD HIGH AT DENVER IS 102. TYING THE RECORD STILL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION SHOULD WINDS GO DOWNSLOPE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT
APPEARED THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WOULD ARRIVE IN THE DENVER
AREA BETWEEN 00Z-01Z THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
THE PRES RISE AT CHEYENNE TELLS ME THE 1ST FRONT IS THROUGH THERE.
AT PRESENT SPEED...SHOULD SEE THIS 1ST SURGE MOVE THROUGH THE FORT
COLLINS/GREELEY AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...AND THROUGH THE DENVER
AREA ABOUT AN HOUR AFTER THAT. MEANWHILE MID-LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY
ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...ACRS SOUNDINGS AND THE
LOW DEWPOINTS AT MTN TOP LEVEL. HOWEVER THE DRY AIR ALOFT IS DOING
LITTLE TO INHIBIT THE ISOLATED CONVECTION/T-STORM FORMATION ALONG
THE PALMER DIVIDE. LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS DOWN THERE SUGGESTS
HIGH BASED CELLS CAPABLE OF STG MICROBURST WINDS. AS
DEWPOINTS/RHS RISE WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AROUND
23Z...RAIN/T-STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WELL AS THE CHANCE
OF HAIL. HRRR...WRF AND NAM INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF T-STORMS/QPF
FROM THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE AND PARK COUNTY EASTWARD ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE AS MOISTURE LEVELS RISE WITH THE SECOND FRONTAL SURGE. SMALL
HAIL MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER...MAINLY SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. SHOULD SEE STORMS DIE OUT BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ON THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO
COOL AND MOISTEN. SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUD COVER/HIGH RHS UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. COULD SEE CIGS AS LOW AS
2000- 2500 FT AGL BY DAWN BUT NOT MUCH IF ANY PRECIP FALLING FROM
THEM.

ON TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH PARTIAL BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
OUT ACRS THE PLAINS TOMORROW APPEARS QUITE STABLE BUT MOIST. SO LOW
CHANCES FOR ANY T-STORMS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. CLOSER TO THE
FRONT RANGE...COMBINATION OF A MOIST SELY BNDRY LAYER FLOW AND AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO GENERATE SCATTERED T-
STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SFC BASED CAPES IN THE 1200-1700 J/KG IN
A NARROW SWATH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
TOMORROW ON THE PLAINS ABOUT 15-20 DEGS F LOWER THAN TODAY. HIGH
COUNTRY TEMPERATURES ESPLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A DRY...WARM AND RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING IN PLACE UNDERNEATH AN STG UPPER RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT HIGHER TUESDAY EVENING THAN
THOSE EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
OR ABOVE AN INCH OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE AIRMASS CAN OVERCOME THE CIN THAT
IS FORECAST TO EXIST MONDAY AFTERNOON SO THAT CONVECTION CAN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IF SO...CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 750
AND 1000 J/KG COULD BE REALIZED DURING THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY IN
AND CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS. THIS COULD COUPLE WITH DECENT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR TO KEEP A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE
EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION GETS UNDERWAY WHICH COULD PRESENT A FLASH
FLOODING SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY IN AND CLOSE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE LOW THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN THAT SMALL THREAT LIKELY DIMINISHING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGNOSES KEEP SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE OVER ALL OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE QG VERTICAL MOTIONS
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THE DAILY ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THE
RULE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

EXPECT ISOLATED HIGH BASED AND POSSIBLY GUSTY T-STORMS IN THE
DENVER AREA UNTIL AROUND 00Z. THEN LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS. STORMS CHANCES
ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE METRO AREA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE. MVFR CIGS WITH RAIN
AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH EVENING STORMS. EXPECT POST
FRONTAL NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-30KTS EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG WITH
HIGHER GUSTS FROM T-STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIE
DOWN IN THE DENVER AREA BY 06Z. THEN A MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...CIGS PERHAPS AS
LOW AS 2000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE LOW CIGS COULD LINGER
WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE PARTIAL CLEARING
BY AROUND MIDDAY. AFTER 18Z...COULD SEE ISOLATED T-STORMS FORM IN
AND AROUND THE DENVER AREA WITH SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS OF 8-15 KTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...BAKER