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000
FXUS65 KBOU 051051
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
351 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...VERY FRIGID TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AS SKIES
CLEARED OVERNIGHT. A COUPLE OF PLACES HAVE BROKEN MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RECORDS INCLUDING DENVER...WHERE -13 DEGREES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT SMASHED YESTERDAYS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD OF -5
DEGREES.

WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES TO START OUT THE DAY ALONG WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR IF NOT COOLER TO
YESTERDAY`S HIGHS. SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PLAINS AND
SINGLE DIGITS TO READINGS BELOW ZERO FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BRING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE METRO AREAS...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY OF THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.
LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH
OVER THE PLAINS.

CLOUD COVER FROM THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT TO KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE COLD READINGS
WE SAW EARLY THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...COLD...COLD...COLD. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK LIKE THEY
WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND COLORADO AS A BLOCKING RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE PLAIN COLD WITHOUT VERY MUCH
PRECIPITATION AS THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE REMAINS DRY. FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ALL MODELS CONTINUE INDICATING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT RIDES
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE AND ROTATES OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH WILL
CONTAIN QUITE A BIT OF DYNAMIC FORCING OVER COLORADO ON SUNDAY. IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AN INORDINATE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
WITH THE TROUGH...BUT WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL
FOR A 12-24 HOUR PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME GULF MOISTURE
WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES...WHICH WOULD
ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. FOR THE TIME BEING WILL JUST STICK WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY...AND SNOW LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN CHANGING AS THE BLOCKING PACIFIC
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE COLD
AIR WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WARMER AIR. THIS TRANSITION WILL
OCCUR ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS SOLUTION SOME
24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARD
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SOME WARMING ON TUESDAY AND MORE WARMING
ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY...CHINOOK WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
WARM-UP...AND WILL PROBABLY BE THE DRIVING MECHANISM THAT BRINGS
AN END TO THE COLD SPELL.

&&

.AVIATION...SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES...BUT LOOKING AT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...DON`T THINK
IT WILL AFFECT THE AIRPORTS. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT YET
HOWEVER. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS OF
3000 TO 6000 FEET POSSIBLE AS WELL AS VERY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
RETURNING TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN