Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 172351
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
551 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE SHOWERS WILL HELP TO AID
IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  THE OTHER AREA FOR POTENTIAL STORMS IS OVER THE
CYS RIDGE AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. STRONGER STORMS IN WYOMING
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TAP INTO A BIT HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS MAY LEAD TO A
STRONGER/POTENTIAL ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
OF 800-1500J/KG. LATEST HRRR STILL SUGGESTS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NE PLAINS AND WILL EXPAND COVERAGE A BIT FOR EVENING
FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER CO ON THURSDAY.
INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE MAY NIX
AFTN TSTM COMPLETELY FM THE FORECAST. SOME LOW LOW MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO ADVECT INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SO WL KEEP THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG THERE AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
TODAY...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WITH LESS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1013 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY. FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SSW WITH THE LOW OVER THE SW COMING
IN UNDER THE RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WITH MOST
OF THE MOISTURE COMING BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH INCREASED MOISTURE BEHIND
IT. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK QG LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWER/TS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING WILL HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT AND KEEP
TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. ON SUNDAY FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR SUNDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S
BECOMING COOLER ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK IN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH PWS RANGING FROM 0.90-1.00 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S BY
12Z MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT QG LIFT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE NE. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER 70S AT THE START OF THE WEEK SLOWLY
INCREASING BY WEDNESDAY BACK TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

MODERATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND
WILL BE THROUGH BETWEEN 0030 AND 0140Z WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF 10-22KT. THERE ARE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY BUT STILL UNSURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL REDEVELOP
BEHIND BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES OVER TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE TAFS DRY
FOR NOW BUT WILL MONITOR IN CASE TS OR ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW SHOWERS
ARE NEEDED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN/COOPER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN


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