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000
FXUS65 KBOU 250928
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
328 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE UPPER HIGH HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF COLORADO DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO WITH MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST UNDER AN INCH OVER
FRONT RANGE. EXPECT THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH PW VALUES REMAINING CLOSE TO
AN INCH. THERE ARE STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING OVER MOUNTAINS AND WEST AND HAVE ADDED LOW POPS FOR THE
PRE DAWN HOURS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM WYOMING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING AND LOW
LEVEL STABILITY THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOW LEVEL CAP LOOKS TO ERODE BY
LATE AFTERNOON WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE FOR A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR
SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE FOOTHILLS BETWEEN
20-22Z. THE RAP/NAM SEEM TO HOLD MORE OF THE SHOWERS ANCHORED ON
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ON THE PLAINS. GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WOULD FAVOR THE HRRR SOLUTION AND WILL BUMP
POPS UP SLIGHTLY TO CHANCE CATEGORIES BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS. LIKE YESTERDAY...MAIN THREATS
WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH READINGS AROUND 90 DEGREES OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING
WITH LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHT COOLING AND
STABILIZATION. THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL STILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
IN BETWEEN...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR STORMS...BUT
WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DRIFT
OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND HELP POP A FEW CELLS THROUGH THE CAP.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND A DEEPENING POOL OF COOL AIR. THERE WILL
BE A THETA-E MINIMUM AND SLIGHT DRYING ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS
AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FROM CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY DRIFTING OFF THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...LOOKS LIKE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE PALMER DIVIDE
AREA HOWEVER AS AIRMASS FARTHER NORTH IS DRYING.

BY MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN AND INCREASE IN
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS IN/NEAR THE
FRONT RANGE WITH CAPES INCREASING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. THIS ALONG
WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW
SEVERE STORMS.

ON TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO POOL ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WHILE A SHORT WAVE IS STILL BEING ADVERTISED TO
DROP ACROSS THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT IS ALSO PROGGED BY VARIOUS MODELS TO DEEPEN THROUGH 700
MB...COLLECTIVELY RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE MAY BE LIMITED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND LIKELY SKINNY CAPE PROFILE
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF A COOL AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. BEST CHANCE SHOULD REFOCUS TO
THE ELEVATED TERRAIN THOUGH AS AIRMASS ON THE PLAINS WOULD BE MORE
STABLE BEHIND TUESDAYS WAVE AND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES HOLDING
IN PLACE. PLAINS LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 80F BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SURFACE WINDS HAVE SETTLED INTO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND WILL
STAY THAT WAY UNTIL WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
BETWEEN 14Z-15Z TIME RANGE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCE BETWEEN 21Z-24Z.
WILL ADJUST TIMING OF STORMS SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT UPCOMING 12Z
ISSUANCE. AGAIN...MAY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 40KT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...ENTREKIN