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000
FXUS65 KBOU 202133
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
333 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS CONVECTIVE BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE/PARK COUNTY AREA. SOME OF
THESE WERE JUST BEGINNING TO SPILL ONTO THE NEARBY ADJACENT
PLAINS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
AS AIRMASS IS NOW SUFFICIENTLY MIXED IN THE I-25 CORRIDOR. WHILE
THE SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED...THE OUTFLOW FROM
THESE HIGH BASED SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDEPSREAD. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH AS AIRMASS IS WELL MIXED TO ABOUT 550 MB.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT DRIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST INTO LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COLD STICK AROUND LONGER THIS EVENING WITH
PLUME OF MOISTURE PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE. AS A RESULT...WE
EXPECT EVEN WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME APPEARS TO SHIFT EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE. AS A RESULT...THE PLUME OF DRY AIR CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN WESTERN ARIZONA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS VARY IN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS PUSHES...SO WE COULD STILL SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
SPARK A FEW HIGH BASED AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.
ANOTHER HOT DAY ON TAP WITH SIMILAR HIGHS TO THOSE OBSERVED TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING THIS TIME AROUND. THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL KEEP WARM AIR IN
PLACE OVER COLORADO WITH WEAK WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS HINT AT SURGES OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVING UP FROM ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN
THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SURGE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. THE WEAK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY MAY DO LITTLE
MORE THAN HOLD MOISTURE AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS AND KEEP ANY
DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID 90S ON TUESDAY. WITH A LITTLE MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW MORE
DEGREES COOLER ON THOSE DAYS...BUT STILL IN THE LOWER 90S.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT NO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE A
LITTLE BIT MORE AS COLORADO COMES UNDER A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE REGION. UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...SUMMER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

WHILE ONLY ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TIL
03Z...MAIN THREAT WOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY AND VARIABLE
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 25-35 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A 40-45 KT GUST
DUE TO NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE TO 550 MB. AFTER 03Z-
04Z...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS SHOULD REDEVELOP WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY. ONLY A SLIGHT 10-20% CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OR OUTFLOWS AFTER 20Z MONDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH