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000
FXUS65 KBOU 192137
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
337 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

MOST CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF I-70 THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS AREA WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WITHOUT ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STILL A LOW CHANCE
OF A STRONGER STORM DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY BUT
EVEN THERE DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING OUT. FARTHER NORTH...AIRMASS IS
CERTAINLY MORE STABLE...SO THREAT OF ANY STORMS IS EVEN LOWER.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOTED ALONG
INTERFACE OF DRIER WESTERLIES THAT HAVE PUSHED THROUGH CHEYENNE
AND WEAK SOUTHEASTERLIES OVER THE PLAINS...SO CANT REMOVE THAT
THREAT ALTOGETHER.

WITH THE LACK OF ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...ANY EVENING STORMS
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY OR BEFORE 8-9 PM.

ON SUNDAY...FLOW ALOFT TURNS A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY AND ANOTHER WEAK
SPEED MAX BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE DESERT. THIS WOULD BRING
A LATE DAY PUSH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS...
WHILE MOST OF THE PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN. MAIN THREAT
IN LOWER ELEVATIONS WOULD BE MICROBURST WINDS AS WE WARM DRY
ADIABATICALLY TO NEARLY 500 MB AND SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ANOTHER COUPLE
DEGREES WITH FURTHER WARMING ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

A WARM WEEK LIES AHEAD AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
COLORADO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES AT
700 MB ARE FORECAST TO REACH +20C WITH THE REST OF THE WEEK SEEING
THOSE TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND +15C TO +18C. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD PEEK OUT WELL INTO THE 90S EACH
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EACH AFTERNOON MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
DRIFT OUT OVER THE PLAINS. WHILE THE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
US...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AND OUT OF THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AT MID-LEVELS MAY GET
ENTRAINED IN THE WEAK FLOW PATTERN FROM TIME TO TIME. DAYTIME
HEATING OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAPPING INVERSIONS CREATED BY THE WARM TEMPERATURES AT AND ABOVE
700 MB. ALL IN ALL...A TYPICAL PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
JULY. HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM STORMS...AS WARM TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT
HARD FOR THE SHOWERS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL REACHING THE GROUND.
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...BUT
THAT MAY NOT MEAN VERY MUCH BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

ISOLATED STORMS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS COULD
PRODUCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...WE
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO THE NORMAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE
FLOW 02Z-04Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...BUT ELEVATED HAZE
LAYER 11Z-15Z SUNDAY COULD ONCE AGAIN REDUCE ARRIVAL RATES AT
KDEN. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AFT 20Z WOULD SEE A 10-20% CHANCE OF GUSTY
MICROBURST WINDS TO 40 KTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH