Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 260911
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
311 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE OVER ARIZONA WILL CUT INTO THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND ROTATE
ACROSS COLORADO LATER TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE FELT IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
INTEGRATED PW VALUES HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY OVER LAST 24 HOURS BUT
MORE SO OVER WESTERN COLORADO. PW VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AROUND AN INCH OVER WESTERN CO AND MOUNTAINS BY LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME WEAK ASCENT WITH THIS TROF MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER FAR NORTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT.

OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...CHANCES OF RAIN ARE NOT LOOKING GOOD
WITH SURFACE TROF DEEPENING WITH RESULTING INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS IMPLIES GENERALLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WITH WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS. SHORT
RANGE MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE
IF ANY ON THE PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME OUTFLOW DEVELOP FROM MOUNTAIN
STORMS SO GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE FRONT
RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR. WILL STILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW POPS ON
ADJACENT PLAINS AS TROF CUTS THROUGH THE RIDGE TONIGHT. ANOTHER
HOT DAY IN STORE WITH READINGS AGAIN IN THE MID 90S DESPITE A BIT
MORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

OVERALL JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST OF COLORADO THU MORNING WITH A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA IN THE AFTN. STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL INSTBY IN THE AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH LESSER COVERAGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER CO ON
FRIDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT STILL NORTHWESTERLY. THE AMS WILL BE
DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT...BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
SLGT CHC OF TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.
WL KEEP SLGT CHC OF TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENING MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT DOES BECOME SWLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH COULD OPEN CO UP TO A LITTLE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVNG TSTMS OVER THE
AREA. THE BEST CHC WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED OVER TERMINALS BUT
CHANCES FOR STORMS LOOK REALLY LOW WITH DRY LOW LEVELS.  BEST
CHANCE WOULD BE SHOWER INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING OFF THE
FOOTHILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN IMPACT.
WITH THREAT SO LOW WILL REMOVE THE CURRENT PROB30 GROUP FROM
TERMINALS LATER TODAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN


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