Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 240238
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
838 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

MAIN FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST...WITH SOME ACTIVITY
REMAINING OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. A DRY SLOT NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WILL KEEP THE REST OF
THE EVENING MAINLY DRY BEFORE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE
WYOMING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH SNOW BACK INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
HAVE UPDATED TONIGHTS WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. STILL
EXPECTING THE WINDS TO CONTINUE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN UTAH/SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING
OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY LATE AFTN. BEST QG ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PASSING TROUGH WILL AROUND 00Z THEN STRONGER
QG DESCENT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS A
LITTLE BETTER SHOWER/TSTMS COVERAGE BUT IT LOOKS OVERDONE COMPARED
TO PRVS RUNS. BEST CHC FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE IN ZONES 31 AND
33...WITH BEST SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL ALONG THE NORTHEAST BORDER
OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING
COULD PACK SOME FAIRLY STRONG GUSTS...UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. STRONG JETSTREAM WINDS ALOFT OVER THE CWA THIS
AFTN SO EVEN STRONGER GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS/HIGHER FOOTHILLS TO
70 MPH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE LATER THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE
AN AMPLIFIED MOUNTAIN WAVE SO STRONGER GUSTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THOSE AREAS OVERNIGHT. STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
SHOULD SUBSIDE AFT 03Z WITH THE DISSIPATION OF ANY SHOWERS. ON
SUNDAY...MDLS STILL SHOW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE MORNING...PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...THEN THE SNOW
SHOWERS DRY UP. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MAYBE AN EARLY MORNING SHOWER ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER. GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN ISSUED THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY....ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. NO HIGHLIGHTS BUT
WINDY THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE.

ON MONDAY...ONE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
ATTEMPT TO CLOSE OFF IN THE GREAT BASIN TO NEAR LAS VEGAS. AHEAD
OF THIS...DEEP LAYER Q-G LIFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS COLORADO...
RESULTING IN INCREASING SHOWER AND AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE. MOST
OF THIS WILL INITIALLY OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THEN SPREAD
OFF THE TERRAIN AND/OR DEVELOP ON THE PLAINS AS THE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL WOBBLING WITH THE EVENTUAL LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS. THE LATEST
ECMWF WAS MUCH MORE CONSOLIDATED AND MOVES THE UPPER LOW RIGHT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE CANADIAN WAS ALSO MORE TIGHTLY WOUND
BUT FARTHER NORTH...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES...AND THE 00Z ECMWF WERE MORE OPEN WITH THE TROUGH.
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK...THE MAIN PICTURE
THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER FOOTHILLS...AND SOME THREAT OF SNOW SPREADING DOWN ONTO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR
ARRIVING ALOFT. IN FACT...THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED SNOW AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT RANGE GIVEN ITS DEEPER AND
COLDER SOLUTION. MEANWHILE IF THE STORM IS SLOWER THAN THE THREAT
OF STRONGER STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

THAT SYSTEM EVENTUALLY KICKS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY SO
MAINLY DRIER BUT COOL WEATHER EXPECTED. STILL CANT RULE OUT A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE THURSDAY AS IT TOO DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SIMILAR TO
MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEM. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...TO THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
INTO SATURDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS MOIST AND UNSETTLED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
BEGIN SUBSIDING AND BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. AT
KBJC...GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...SO
MAY SEE GUST TO 40-45KT OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. ON SUNDAY...GUSTY WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL
THE AIRPORT EXPECTED AFTER 18Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



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