Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 200228
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
828 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 828 PM MDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move off to the east
through the evening. Heavy rain and wind gusts to 40 to 50 mph
will be main threat with the thunderstorms. Over the higher
terrain and along the Front Range, isolated showers and
thunderstorms will remain possible with additional rainfall
expected to be light.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 PM MDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Not much change for this evening`s forecast as weak convection is
developing over and near the mountains in a low CAPE environment.
There have been a few puffs of convection on the plains that could
not sustain themselves. Still expecting a bit more activity out
there this evening, it may wait until some organized outflow or
some increase in the southerly flow this evening.

Light westerly flow aloft will continue on Wednesday, but there
will be a little less moisture. In addition, very warm
temperatures aloft (around -5C at 500 mb) will continue to limit
the depth and strength of convection. There should still be a fair
amount of showers and thunderstorms over the mountains, but weak.
For the plains the decreased moisture will mean things will be
more strongly capped. Still expecting a few storms but less than
today. Temperatures may be slightly warmer, but this will depend
on the timing of cloud cover developing.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 PM MDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Models keep the upper high pressure centered southeast of the CWA
into Friday morning, with weak southwesterly flow aloft. By Friday
afternoon, the upper ridge shifts westward and flattens somewhat.
There is no synoptic scale energy progged for the CWA through the
period. The boundary layer flow is pretty normal through the
periods, but there is a weak cold front and some upslope indicated
Thursday. Models continue to show plenty of mid and upper level
moisture for the CWA through Friday night. Precipitable water
values are in the the 0.60 to 1.30 inch range all five periods.
There is pretty decent CAPE progged for the CWA through the
periods. There is some measurable rainfall over most of the CWA on
the QPF fields for all the late day periods. For pops, will use
persistence, with 40-50%s in the high country and 20-30%s over the
plains. For temperatures, Thursday`s highs are 1-2 C warmer than
Wednesday`s. Friday`s highs are 1-2 C warmer again. For the later
days, Saturday through Tuesday, models have the upper ridge
flattening out, but there is still southwesterly flow aloft. Some
mid and upper level moisture is progged to continue into the
weekend but is dries out a bit Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 828 PM MDT Tue Jul 19 2016

There will be a slight chance for another thunderstorm in the
Denver area through 06z. Scattered showers may bring a brief
period of rain this evening yet. Winds direction is all over, but
will settle southerly by 06z. For Wednesday, another round of
thunderstorms is expected after 22z.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Meier
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Meier


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