Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 282225
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
325 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ARE COVERING ALL OF THE CWA RIGHT NOW.
SPEEDS ARE 15 TO 35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE RADAR
HAS SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A RAIN SHOWER OVER NORTHERN WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES.
MODELS HAVE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SPEEDS ARE PROGGED TO BE 75 TO 110 KNOTS BOTH PERIODS.
THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS KEEP DOWNWARD ENERGY OVER THE CWA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY.
FOR MOISTURE...MODELS HAVE SOME IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IT`S NOT VERY DEEP...AND OVER THE
PLAINS IT IS MOSTLY UP OFF THE SURFACE. THURSDAY DRIES OUT SOME.
THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...THEN EVEN LESS IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.  FOR POPS WILL GO WITH "CHANCE"S IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASE THEM OVERNIGHT. NO POPS ON
THURSDAY. NO POPS FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...
THURSDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 3-6 C COOLER THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S
HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE EAST OF
THE STATE BY FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO PUSH SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA AS THE WEEK ENDS. STEADY BUT WEAK QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COVER MOST OF THE CWA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
WEAK WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/UPSLOPE THAT WOULD HELP PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY THE LOWLAND POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED A BIT. WITH THE
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT OROGRAPHICS WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS SO
WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS BUT NOTHING TREMENDOUS IN THE QPF
DEPARTMENT UP THERE.

THE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO HEAD WELL SOUTH OF US BY SUNDAY
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN BRANCH TO BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINDY PERIOD TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS
...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THE WINDS MAY PUSH
ONTO THE PLAINS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING
MONDAY NIGHT TO BE THE WINDIEST ALONG THE LEE SLOPES. SOME HINT OF
A MOIST DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE ZONES NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THE WINDS AT DIA ARE DUE NORTH NOW AT SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 KNOT
RANGE. THEY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID EVENING. THEY WILL DECREASE
IN SPEED BUT LIKELY STAY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY ALL NIGHT. NOT
SURE ANY MORE ABOUT SCT-BKN LOWER CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. AM LEANING
AGAINST IT NOW...SO NO CEILING ISSUES AT DIA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...RJK



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