Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 191559
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
959 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH METRO AREA THIS MORNING...THIS WILL COOL
OFF TEMPS A BIT...THIS COVERED IN CURRENT FORECAST. THUNDERSTORMS
STILL EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DRIFTING EAST ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER AREAS OF THE PLAINS MAY
SEE A STORM OR TWO...BUT MAINLY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH A CONTINUED DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS A WEAK TROF SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST. CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SHOULD BE THROUGH CYS AROUND 11Z. NOT MUCH
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ON THE TAIL END OF THIS TROF. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CYS RIDGE.
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DRIFT OFF THE HILLS AND ONTO THE
PLAINS. OVERALL COVERAGE OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ISOLATED
AND MAINLY NOT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AN UPPER HIGH AND RIDGE ARE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN WESTERLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA. THE
LOW LEVELS WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE UPSLOPE ON SATURDAY...THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY WITH A DENVER CYCLONE A GOOD BET. MOISTURE
CERTAINLY INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIODS...WITH QUITE A BIT PROGGED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE PROGGED IN THE 0.40 WEST TO 1.00 INCH EAST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THEY INCREASE INTO THE 0.60 TO 1.30 INCH
RANGE FORM WEST TO EAST...WITH OVER AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE
PLAINS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S F
WEST TO WIDESPREAD 50S F OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...60S F READINGS ARE PROGED TO
COVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS SOME CAPE OVER THE CWA LATE DAY
SATURDAY...MOSTLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER RIDGE. THERE IS A
BIT MORE PROGGED FOR LATE DAY SUNDAY AND IT IS OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE CWA
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SOME OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND PALMER
RIDGE BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE IS QUITE A
BIT PROGED FOR THE PLAINS. THE ENTIRE CWA HAS MEASURABLE RAINFALL
IN PLACE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS WILL GO WITH 20-40%S
FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. FOR OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...20-30% POPS WILL BE GOOD FOR
ALL THE CWA. WILL UP THAT INTO THE 30-50% RANGE THE REST OF SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-8 C
COOLER THAN TODAY`S EXPECTED HIGHS. SUNDAY`S LOOK SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED OVER COLORADO MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
...THEN UPPER RIDGING MOVES BACK IN THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE MOISTURE FROM SUNDAY IS PROGGED
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE DRIES OUT AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMB A BIT FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE CHALLENGE THIS MORNING HAS BEEN FORECASTING WIND DIRECTIONS
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH METRO AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS MID
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTH NORTHEASTERLY LATE
MORNING...NORTHEASTERLY EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WE WILL NOT
LIKELY GO TO NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS...BUT HAVE WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST OR WEST. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY WEST AND NORTHWEST OF DENVER...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
ONE OR TWO STORMS AFTER 21Z THAT MAY IMPACT AREA AIRPORTS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



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