Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 201645

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1045 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Issued at 1038 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Satellite pictures show a bit of high thin Cirrus moving down
across the CWA in the Northwesterly flow aloft. Southeasterly low
level flow is in place over the western half of the plains and
lower foothills. Wind speeds a light. Very little to change on the
GFE grids, maybe a sky cover touch-up is all.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

A dry northwest flow is evident on satellite over the state this
morning. Surface temperatures over the plains are hovering in the
upper 20s to mid 30s. Trends are still looking good for freezing
or colder temperatures by later this morning for the plains. The
urban corridor will likely be close, with some pockets of below
freezing and some pockets of just above freezing. For now, believe
the warning is still good.

Upper ridging over the western states will push east through
tonight allowing for warm advection over the area. High surface
pressure over the eastern plains will be pushing east as well
through the day, with a surface trough forming along the lee of
the Rockies slowly through tonight. This will keep cool
temperatures at the surface again with limited mixing under the
warmer temperatures aloft acting as a cap. Have gone slightly
warmer than guidance however as forecast soundings show some
warming over yesterdays temperatures and expecting mostly clear
skies and light winds. High clouds will be pushing in later today
and tonight which will likely produce some mountain wave clouds.
With the surface trough deepening, a downsloping pattern will
develop with gusty winds to 40 mph in the Front Range mountains
and foothills. Warmer minimum temperatures tonight will result as

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

A flat upper level ridge will build over the Central and Southern
Rockies Friday and remain in place through the weekend. This will
bring dry conditions and a return of above normal temperatures.

For Friday, warm advection begins in earnest with temperatures
warming another 10-12 degrees on the plains. There may be a few
morning wave clouds and gusty winds along the Front Range, but by
afternoon expect sun filled skies with the high level moisture
shield shifting east into the Central Plains. Some gusty winds can
still be expected right near the Wyoming border for elevated fire
danger conditions there. Elsewhere winds will remain light.

On Saturday, warm advection and sunny skies will continue so
expect to add another 5 degrees or so onto high temps. Most spots
on the plains should be pushing close to 80F. By Sunday, there
may be a weak front that slips into northeast Colorado for slight
cooling and a few more high clouds, but dry and mild conditions
will still prevail.

For Monday and Tuesday, we will see an increase in mid level
moisture from the southwest as upper ridge shifts slowly east.
This will bring a chance of showers but once again most of this
should stay confined to the high country and western slope with
the prevailing southwest flow aloft and only weak if any forcing
noted at this point. Temperatures cool just a few degrees, but
will likely stay above normal. A drier westerly flow is expected
to develop again by Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1038 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Models keep the current southeasterly winds going at DIA through
the afternoon until the drainage flow kicks in an hour after
sunset. I see no reason not to believe this. There will be only a
tad of upper level cloudiness.




SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...RJK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.