Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 190227
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
827 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

STILL DEALING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN FRONT RANGE AND EXTENDING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. THE MAIN
STORM IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL WELD COUNTY ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
HAVE BEEN QUIET OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS SOME DRIER
AIR IN WYOMING ALONG WITH WEAK TROF WHICH WILL BRUSH NE COLORADO
LATER THIS EVENING. MAIN CHANGE TO ZONES WAS TO EXTEND
THUNDERSTORMCHANCES UNTIL CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT GIVEN CURRENT
ACTIVITY STILL ONGOING. OVERALL LOOKS DRIER AND WARMER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

CORE OF UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX IS MOVING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AT
THIS TIME. THERE HAS BEEN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...THERE IS STILL A LOW THREAT
OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM GIVEN CAPES OF NEARLY 2000 J/KG AND
SUFFICIENT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS EAST OF THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ZONE.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO OUR NORTH WORKS INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX AROUND THOUGH...CANT RULE OUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY TIL LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH ANOTHER 2-3C
WARMING AT 700 MB. THIS ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND
SPEED MAX SINKING TO OUR SOUTH...SHOULD RESULT IN REDUCED
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. LOOKING AT ISOLATED 10 PERCENT COVERAGE AT
BEST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED-V PROFILE SO
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH BRIEF MODERATE
RAINFALL. THE STORMS WILL END AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER COLORADO
WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AS NOTED BY A SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. THIS
MAY LEAD TO A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOST OF THE MOISTURE ABOVE 600
MB...SO STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH ONLY BRIEF MODERATE
RAINFALL. STORMS TO END BY MIDNIGHT WITH LACK OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT
TO KEEP THEM GOING OVERNIGHT. WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. FOR MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS A
BIT AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WYOMING. FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO BECOMES WESTERLY. MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...
BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STORMS TO PRODUCE MAINLY
GUSTY WINDS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL. HIGHS ACROSS NORTHEAST PLAINS
TO BE IN THE MID 90S. ON TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO. MOISTURE LIMITED WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN HOT WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 90S.

FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME
FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE ACROSS COLORADO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CENTER OF THE HIGH TO SHIFT TO NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA. SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLIGHT COOLING NOTED BUT HIGHS BOTH DAYS SHOULD
STILL BE IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BY
FRIDAY... FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. ENOUGH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FOR CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A FRONT MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE MORNING WITH A BIT MORE COOLING
WHICH SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 805 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

SURFACE WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE AT KDEN BUT THERE IS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD GET INTO KDEN AROUND 0430Z.
THERE IS AN ISOLATED TS OVER WELD COUNTY BUT EXPECT THAT STORM TO
EITHER WEAKEN OR STAY EAST OF DIA. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT MORE
NORTHEAST AND EAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. BJC/APA WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE
FROM THAT BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE LESS HIGH BASED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
AS AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...ENTREKIN


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