Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 180303
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
903 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. MILD
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.
NOTHING MORE THAN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA SLIDES EASTWARD...THROWING SOME CLOUDINESS
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ON THE PLAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

WIDENING CLOUD SHIELD IN ADVANCE OF A RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN ARIZONA ATTM IS STILL PROGGED TO
SPREAD NEWRD OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF COLORADO
OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL THAT MOST OF
THE MOISTURE OVER N-CNTRL AND NERN COLORADO DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL BE CONFINED TO MID AND UPPER LEVELS. ALTHOUGH AS THE
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE FCST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CLOUD
BASES ARE LIKELY TO LOWER AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITHIN
A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO
FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN PARK AND SUMMIT COUNTIES AROUND THE
NOON HOUR...AND THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD TO HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW EMBEDDED
T-STORMS. NOT LIKELY WE/LL SEE ANY OF THIS SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY
MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TOO DRY AND
STABLE BENEATH A PRETTY THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES NEXT
24 HOURS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE 30S/LOWER 40S ON THE PLAINS TO THE
20S/LOWER 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY WITH MID/UPPER 60S AT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70...EXPECT A NICE FALL
WEEKEND WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS AND IN THE 50S AND
60S FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE OFF THE EAST PACIFIC TUESDAY
PUSHING IN MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL COOL HIGHS INTO THE 60S OVER THE
PLAINS...POSSIBLY INTO THE 50S. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW IT SEEMS AS THE GFS MAY BE TOO
FAR NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM SO ITS GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE PLAINS. SNOW
LEVELS AS OF NOW ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 8500...BUT NOT MUCH
SNOW ACCUMULATION AS THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN SPREAD OVER THE
AREA FOR A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THURSDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOL IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 903 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT...AND TEND TO STAY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY DUE TO HIGH PRESURE OVER KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA INDUCING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WE MAY
SEE A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THAT SWITCHES THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...DANKERS



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