Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 231604
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
904 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE REGION.
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CEILINGS WERE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIVE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT. LIFT AHEAD OF IT IS PRIMARILY PRODUCING CLOUDS
OVER MONTANA...IDAHO AND WYOMING. RADAR IS NOT PICK UP ANY SNOW AT
THIS TIME. AS THIS WAVE MOVES SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO A WARMER START
AND A WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER WITH THE CLOUD COVER
OVERHEAD...HEATING WILL BE SLOWED IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS
TO MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. A SURFACE
TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
PRODUCE NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING WILL REBUILD
OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BRINGING CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

MOVING INTO A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF JANUARY THAW WEATHER BEGINNING
SATURDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. EARLIER IT LOOKED AS THOUGH THE
NORTHERN MTNS WOULD SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE CARRIED ALONG BY MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THAT DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE THE CASE NOW AS THIS
LATEST MODEL RUN PASSES THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE WELL
EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE. THEREFORE OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SOME GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...SATURDAY NIGHT NOW LOOKS DRY.
EVEN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AT TIMES IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY SHOULDN/T HAVE ANY PROBLEM REACHING THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S
ON THE PLAINS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS IN BREEZY AREAS NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. EVEN THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOULD SEE GOOD WARMING WITH MID
30/LOWER 40S BECOMING COMMON. HOWEVER SHALLOW INVERSIONS IN THE MTN
VALLEYS SUCH AS THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN GRAND COUNTY MAY
PREVENT MUCH WARMING IN THESE AREAS...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL MONDAY
OR TUESDAY.

THE WARMUP WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
HEIGHTS AND WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT PASSING OVER THE FCST AREA. WINDS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHTER ON MONDAY BENEATH THE RIDGE. HOWEVER
LIGHT BREEZES MOVING DOWN OFF THE FRONT RANGE WILL HELP DRIVE
AFTERNOON TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S PARTICULARLY NEAR THE BASE OF THE
FOOTHILLS. DON/T SEE TEMPS BREAKING ANY RECORDS...BUT IT/LL STILL BE
QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BTW...RECORD HIGH AT DENVER ON
MONDAY THE 26TH IS 73 AND ON THE 27TH TUESDAY 76 DEGS!

FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL
COOL DOWN EACH DAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXITING THE REGION AND AS
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS STREAMING UP FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS INFLUX OF RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AIR COULD RESULT
IN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING UP FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 854 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

HIGH LEVEL BKN DECK MOVING IN THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
LOWERING IN THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10000FT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN



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