Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 050159
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
759 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2014

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS CONFINED TO AREAS IN THE MTNS
AND OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. OVERALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DECREASE THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2014

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE DRYLINE FROM NEAR SEDGWICK TO EAST
OF LIMON...WITH WEAKER CONVECTION IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR FURTHER
WEST. THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE THE MOISTURE IS MUCH
BETTER...BUT STILL NOT MUCH SHEAR OR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO ORGANIZE
THE STORMS. MAIN THREAT IS MARGINAL HAIL FROM STRONG PULSES.
FURTHER WEST THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT SO FAR WE HAVE
NOT SEEN MUCH OF THAT...A FEW STRONG AND SHORT LIVED PULSES AND
LOTS OF WEAKER SHOWERS. QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO...BUT IT APPEARS WEAK AND VERY MUCH DIURNAL
AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. SO THE CLOUDS FROM THIS MAY LINGER AND DRIFT
EAST BUT THE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
EARLY EVENING.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
ON SATURDAY THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARMER AND A LITTLE DRIER...SO
PRETTY MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION. LOW GRADE CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. AIRMASS LOOKS ABOUT 5 DEGREES F
WARMER...I RAISED OUR HIGHS SLIGHTLY WHICH PUTS WARMER PLACES ON
THE PLAINS NEAR 100 DEGREES. DENVER RECORD OF 101 IS PROBABLY
SAFE...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
IT WILL REMAIN HOT...WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME
ISOLATED HIGHER BASED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE QPF GENERATED BY
THE MDLS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...WITH A FAIRLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE WILL GET SUPPRESSED A BIT ON MONDAY AS A
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF COLORADO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWFA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO ADVECT
INTO THE AREA FOR NEW MEXICO. AS A RESULT...PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE ACROSS THE
CWFA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THE GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS AOA ONE
INCH BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE 80S FOR TUESDAY
WITH CAPES IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 1200 J/KG AT KDEN...HIGHER
FURTHER EAST. ON WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY BUT THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN COLORADO. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST BUT THE COVERAGE
MAY LESSEN A BIT FM THE NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT THE PATTERN REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY THE GFS/ECMWF HAS THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A GOOD FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
WESTERN COLORADO BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE AHEAD OF A
TROUGH OVER SRN CA. THE MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2014

WINDS HAD BECOME MORE WLY AT DIA HOWEVER ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL
AFFECT THE AIRPORTBY 9 PM WITH A SHIFT TO A MORE NWLY COMPONENT.
AFTER THIS BNDRY MOVES THROUGH WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TOWARDS
DRAINAGE BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK


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