Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 202134
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
334 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

No changes to going forecast. We will continue to be in a moist
monsoon flow acorss Colorado tomorrow. This will favor the high
country for better precipitation chances. Convection will slowly
end over the high country late tonight...then we start the process
again Thursday with scattered storms developing over the mountains
around midday...with isolated thunderstorms spreading to the
plains late in the afternoon to early evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Models have the upper ridge center still southeast of the
forecast area Thursday night into Friday. The upper ridge flattens
out a bit after that with its center getting southwest of
Colorado on Saturday. However, the flow aloft stays weak and
southwesterly Thursday night through Saturday night. There is no
synoptic scale energy on the QG Omega fields for the CWA through
Saturday night. The boundary layer winds should adhere to normal
diurnal trends Thursday night into Saturday morning. A weak cold
front and upslope is progged in on Saturday morning. The upslope
looks to continue into Saturday evening, then drainage overnight.
There is ample mid and upper level moisture still progged to be
over the CWA Thursday evening into Saturday morning. The
precipitable water values are progged in the 0.70 to 1.40 inch
range Thursday night through Friday evening. They decrease after
that, with values in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range on Saturday and
Saturday night. Models have decent CAPE values progged over the
mountians Thursday evening and both late day Friday and late day
Saturday. The CAPE over the plains is fairly high late day Friday,
but meager Thursday evening and late day Saturday. The QPF fields
have some measurable rainfall, mostly over the mountians Thursday
evening and late day Saturday. There is a bit more progged friday
and it is over most of the CWA. For pops, will go with "chance"s
in the mountians and "slight chance"s over the plains Thursday
evening and Saturday. Will go with 30-50%s for all the CWA late
day Friday. For temperatures, Friday`s highs are 0-1 C cooler
than Thursday`s highs. Saturday`s highs are close to Friday`s. For
the later days, Sunday through Wednesday, models have the upper
ridge centered west of Colorado through the period. The flow
aloft is weak southwesterly into Tuesday, then it it becomes
northwesterly later in the day and on Wednesday. the mid and upper
level moisture fetch from the Mexican mountians decreases
gradually through the four day period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

The area airports can expect to see scattered thunderstorms
through around 04z. Storms may contain heavy rain and wind gusts
to 40 mph...so brief ifr conditions are possible...otherwise vfr
conditions will continue. surface winds will transition from
easterly this evening to drainage after 04z...southwesterly or
westerly on thursday.


&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RTG


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