Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 172149
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
349 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

WIDENING CLOUD SHIELD IN ADVANCE OF A RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN ARIZONA ATTM IS STILL PROGGED TO
SPREAD NEWRD OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF COLORADO
OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL THAT MOST OF
THE MOISTURE OVER N-CNTRL AND NERN COLORADO DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL BE CONFINED TO MID AND UPPER LEVELS. ALTHOUGH AS THE
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE FCST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CLOUD
BASES ARE LIKELY TO LOWER AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITHIN
A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO
FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN PARK AND SUMMIT COUNTIES AROUND THE
NOON HOUR...AND THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD TO HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW EMBEDDED
T-STORMS. NOT LIKELY WE/LL SEE ANY OF THIS SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY
MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TOO DRY AND
STABLE BENEATH A PRETTY THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES NEXT
24 HOURS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE 30S/LOWER 40S ON THE PLAINS TO THE
20S/LOWER 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY WITH MID/UPPER 60S AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 50S/LOWER 60S IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70...EXPECT A NICE FALL
WEEKEND WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS AND IN THE 50S AND
60S FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE OFF THE EAST PACIFIC TUESDAY
PUSHING IN MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL COOL HIGHS INTO THE 60S OVER THE
PLAINS...POSSIBLY INTO THE 50S. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW IT SEEMS AS THE GFS MAY BE TOO
FAR NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM SO ITS GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE PLAINS. SNOW
LEVELS AS OF NOW ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 8500...BUT NOT MUCH
SNOW ACCUMULATION AS THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN SPREAD OVER THE
AREA FOR A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THURSDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOL IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. NO
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEMS IN THE AREA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AT THE PRESENT TIME FORECAST TO PASS OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO
AREA AIRPORT OPERATIONS. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING. SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 8 KTS. ON SATURDAY...WINDS START
OUT SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AT 5-8KTS AND BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST 6-12 KTS
BY 18Z BENEATH A NEARLY SOLID DECK OF MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...BAKER


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