Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 220308

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
908 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2016

Issued at 908 PM MDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Convective coverage has been lower than the last few evenings.
Precipitable water values and CAPES were a bit lower. Could still
see a few showers/isolated storms linger past midnight, but
overall trend will be for a decrease and end overnight as airmass
stabilizes. Temperatures will be quite warm tonight with lingering
clouds and a very warm airmass in place.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 354 PM MDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Convection has filled in nicely under the enhanced mid level
moisture over north central and northwestern Colorado. Most of
this is weak, but there are a few stronger pulses and some areas
of rain broad enough to generate some larger scale outflow winds.
This should migrate slowly eastward through the night with some
increase in the amount of rain as it gets into the plains
moisture, then decreasing coverage and intensity overnight. The
main area of moisture should be moving east out of our area on
Friday, but diurnal heating should regenerate activity along the
Front Range in the afternoon. Plains activity may not get that
widespread until evening as has been the case the last couple of
days. However there could be some weaker showers under the clouds.
Over the western mountains there is some warm advection coming in
behind the wave in the 400-500 mb layer which could cap convection
and limit precip to mainly sprinkles out of a shallower cloud
layer. Despite the cloud cover it will remain warm, partly helped
by a warm start to the day. Our highs may be a little too warm if
the clouds remain solid. Threats will remain similar with some
heavy rain but a low flood threat, and gusty winds and small hail
possible but not much threat of reaching severe limits.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 354 PM MDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Synopsis: An elongated upper level ridge of high pressure will
stretch across the southern half of the United States through much
of the period...with a westerly flow aloft over Colorado. Some
residual monsoonal moisture combined with daytime heating and an
occasional upper level disturbance will produce isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across
north central and northeastern Colorado each day. This pattern will
also result in above normal temperatures through the period.

Friday night...There should be scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the region. PW`s should range from around one
inch along the Front Range Urban Corridor to over 1.50 inches
along the far northeastern plains. Therefore...some of the storms
could produce locally heavy rain especially east and northeast of
Denver. Should see little or no hail with the storms due to the
fact the 500 mb temperatures will be around -5 degrees C.

Saturday...A weak cool front is expected to move across
eastern Colorado...with somewhat drier air behind it. This should
result in less storm coverage on the plains. However...the front
could focus activity over the mountains where scattered afternoon
and evening showers and storms will be possible. Despite the cool
front...high temperatures on the plains will still make it into
the 90s on the plains.

Sunday-Tuesday...The flow of low level moisture returns to the
plains...which will allow for a little better chance for showers
and storms. On Sunday...The far northeastern plains look to be
capped with little or no precipitation expected. On
upper level disturbance may increase thunderstorm thunderstorm
activity across the northeastern plains. With PW`s ranging
between 1-1.25 inches...some of the storms could produce locally
heavy rainfall.

Wednesday-Thursday. By the middle of next week...the upper high
will be centered over the Nevada Utah border...with a drier west
to northwest wind flow aloft over Colorado. This pattern will
push subtropical moisture to the south and east of our
CWA...resulting in warm and dry weather across north central and
northeastern Colorado.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 908 PM MDT Thu Jul 21 2016

There are still a few showers moving in from the southwest but
overall chance of rain or additional gusty winds is only around 20
percent, and threat of thunder is almost nil. Southwest winds
around 10-15 knots will prevail through 12Z-15Z, then becoming
easterly around 10 knots on Friday. Expect another round of
thunderstorms with gusty winds to potentially affect the Front
Range airports including KDEN 21Z-04Z.


.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Kalina
AVIATION...Barjenbruch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.