Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 220349
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
949 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK EXCEPT FOR A BIT MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS COMING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SEEMS FAIRLY THIN THOUGH AND IS NOT HOLDING
TOGETHER SO WELL AS IT COMES EAST. I INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER BUT
MORE SO OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAN THE EASTERN BORDER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. FAIRLY DECENT CELL MOVING ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY AT THIS
TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WIND WITH
THIS CELL AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTION
FAIRLY WEAK AND PROBABLY PRODUCING MORE WIND THAN RAIN. MOST OF
PLAINS STILL A BIT CAPPED WHICH WAS HINDERING THE CONVECTION. SOME
SPOTTY HIGH BASED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WELD AND NORTHEAST
LARIMER COUNTIES. AIRMASS TO QUICKLY STABILIZE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...SO ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD BE DISSIPATED AT THAT
TIME WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING A BIT
GUSTY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER
KANSAS. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 25 THIS EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND LIFT SPREADS OVER THE AREA...ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY BY THE AFTERNOON. BEST LIFT TO
RESIDE OVER UTAH. AIRMASS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE...SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN OVER
THE HIGH COUNTRY. OVERALL. ACROSS PLAINS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL ASCENT AND INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
AND FAR EASTERN COLORADO. THIS COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FAR EASTERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF CFWA LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. FIRE DANGER BECOMES ELEVATED A BIT OVER PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING WINDS. LOOKS
LIKE HUMIDITY READINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. ALSO...COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LEE SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY USHERING IN COLDER AIR...WIND AND SOME PRECIPITATION.
MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TUESDAY DUE TO
CONVECTION AND QG PROCESSES WITH MORE OF AN OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF QG ASCENT AND
CONVECTIVE PROCESSES AND BE MOST LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING WITH ALL
OF THE PLAINS HAVING A SMALL SHOT OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASINGLY STRONG QG SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF HEATING
SHOULD SHUT DOWN PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING WEDNESDAY WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE
ANY RED FLAG TYPE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER SHORT-
LIVED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
ZONE 47. CONSEQUENTLY NO HIGHLIGHTS FOR THAT ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS POINT.

SATURDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING PRECIPITATION THREAT AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEARING
TO BE COOL AND WET. SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIAL QPF EVENT
FOR SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL PLENTY
OF SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE NWP OUTPUT FOR THAT TIME
FRAME...BOTH BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLE DATA...
TO NOT JUMP INTO THE DEEP END JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 944 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPACT EXPECTED TO KDEN
OPERATIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ARE EXPECTED BUT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW WINDS AFTER 21Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD


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