Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 161957

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
157 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 157 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

A dry west/northwesterly flow aloft will be over the region
through Thursday. Spatial cross-sections show some mid an upper
level moisture passing overhead, but no pcpn expected. A weak cool
front will pass move into the area Friday morning. Temperatures
will be a cooler but still well above normal. Overall the wind
will be light with some improvement in the relative humidities in
the afternoon which will alleviate the fire weather concerns for
one day at least. Reference the fire weather discussion below.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 157 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Upper level ridge will be over the Central Rockies Saturday. It
will then shift east of the region Sunday leaving southwest flow
aloft behind it. This will produce a warm and dry weekend. Highs
are expected to reach to upper 70s to lower 80s. A surface low
will develop over the Central Plains Sunday and bring gusty west
winds. The fire danger will be elevated, especially on Sunday when
winds increase.

A cold front will drop south across the area Sunday night. The
cooler air behind the front combined with an easterly winds should
result in cooler highs for Monday with readings mainly in the 60s
across northeast Colorado. There will be enough moisture embedded in
the flow aloft for a chance of showers, mainly over northern parts
of the area.

It will be dry and warm Tuesday as ridging reforms over the Central
Rockies. This ridge shifts off to the east Wednesday as an upper
level trough move onto the California coast. Moisture will increase
ahead of the trough starting Wednesday, so will have a
chance/slight chance for precipitation in the forecast. The upper
level trough moves inland and is expected to affect the area
Thursday. It should be warm enough for rain across the lower
elevations. This will be the strongest system to affect the area
in the past few weeks. However it still could track north of the
area and leave the area on the dry side of the storm.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 157 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

VFR with no cig/vsby restrictions thru Fri aftn. West/northwest
this afternoon. Winds gusts to 25 kts psbl. Winds will weaken
this evening and transition to south/southwest overnight. A cool
fnt will move across the plains of nern CO in the morning but a
significant wind shift is not anticipated at this time. Friday,
south/southwest winds early, then sely after 15z, then
transitioning to east/northeast in the aftn. The wind is not
expected to be a strong as today.


Issued at 157 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Will continue with the Red Flag Warning for the foothills of
Larimer and Boulder Counties and the northeast plains through 7 pm
mdt this evening. RH values generally in the 10-15 percent range
early this aftn with gusts in the 25-35 mph range, so warning
appears to be panning out in most areas. The fire danger will
decrease on Friday as a cool front affects the plains. Light winds
with rh values around 20 percent should alleviate the fire weather
threat for one day.


Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ215-238>251.



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