Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 121631
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1031 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Temperatures are warming up quickly this morning across northeast
Colorado with many locations in the 60s at 10AM. High temperatures
in the 70s still look on track for much of the area. May need to
nudge temperatures up a couple of days, otherwise the temperature
forecast looks on track. Other than some high clouds, sunny skies
will prevail today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 435 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Dry southwest flow will prevail across the state today through
tonight with a long wave trough located across the interior
Pacific Northwest. Moisture at all levels is meager, with surface
dewpoints to remain in the low 30s and PWATs in the 0.2-0.3 inch
range throughout the day. Zero chance of precipitation anywhere,
and at best a few mid/high clouds will be drifting over the area
today. Flow aloft is pretty strong despite being so far removed
from the long wave trough, so expect gusty winds above 9000 feet
elevation, 25G35 mph or so during the late morning to afternoon
hours, especially across the higher elevations of Park/Summit
Counties.

The southwest flow across the state will continue the
warming trend via good downslope flow east of the Rockies
extending across the Plains. Lapse rates at and just above the
ridge tops are weak today, so do not expect significant mountain
wave activity in the lee of the mountains nor particularly strong
west winds across the I-25 urban corridor. The Palmer Divide will
likely have the strongest winds, 15-20 mph with higher gusts.
Temperatures will warm into the mid and upper 70s across the
Plains, with mid 50s to mid 60s in the mountains.

Tonight skies will remain mostly clear, and with light winds
radiational cooling will be prevalent with lows in the upper 30s
to low 40s Plains, low to mid 20s mountain valleys and around 30
elsewhere across the mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 435 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

WSW flow aloft will remain over the area on Fri.  Temps will be
cooler as highs stay mainly in the lower to mid 60s across nern CO.
For Fri night there could be a slight chc of showers over the far
northeast plains as a weak disturbance embedded in the flow
combines with some warm air advection.

On Sat an upper level trough will move quickly across nrn CO fm
mid aftn into the early evening hours. The ECMWF has less moisture
than previous runs so will keep pops on the lower side in most
areas. Meanwhile a cdfnt will move across nern CO by midday with
gusty nly winds. Aftn highs over the plains will range fm the
lower 50s nr the WY border with lower 70s possible over srn
Lincoln county.

For Sun dry WNW flow aloft will be over the area with no pcpn
expected. Highs will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s across nern
CO. On Mon the flow aloft will become more WLY as downslope
warming begins to develop. Thus temps will rise into the upper 60s
to lower 70s across the plains.

By Tue and Wed the flow aloft will remain nearly zonal with no
pcpn. Temps both days will be abv normal across the plains with
readings in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1031 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through Friday with high clouds at
times. Light winds are expected to become north to northeast
after 18Z and remain a northerly direction into Friday morning.
Winds will then turn an easterly direction towards 18Z Friday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Meier
SHORT TERM...Schlatter
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...Meier



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