Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 300954
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
354 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

DRIER AIR IN WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY THRU
TONIGHT. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN AND EARLY EVENING TSTMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. AS FOR HIGHS
OVER NERN CO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH UPPER 60S OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER. FOR TONIGHT
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL END DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT
MAY SEE SOME STRATUS DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

RECENT RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT MADE ANY BIG
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A FEW DAYS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER COLORADO AND THEN A TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
BE THE DRIEST PERIOD OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ALONG WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD SEE HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S. ONE OR TWO OF THOSE DAYS MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH ALL RECENT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...IT WILL TAKE QUITE A STRONG AND SUBSIDENT RIDGE TO
OVERCOME THE TENDANCY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE THE FORECAST STILL HAS
ISOLATED POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OF
COLORADO AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE STATE.
BY NEXT SATURDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE DEEPEST SOLUTION OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH ALMOST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHETHER THE AMPLIFIED ECMWF SOLUTION OR LOWER
AMPLITUDE GFS HAVE THE RIGHT ANSWER. FOR NOW WILL HAVE A
CONTINUATION OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. OVERALL...THE DRIER TREND WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL WILL HELP KEEP THE MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT FROM
GETTING TOO FAR OUT OF HAND. WITH SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS ALREADY
RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL...A SLOW MELT-OFF WOULD BE PREFERRED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

CEILINGS HAVE BEEN IN THE 3000-5000 FT RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS.  SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO
BREAKUP NEAR DIA SO MAY SEE SCT COVERAGE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  IF
WINDS STAY LIGHT DRAINAGE THIS MAY PREVENT FOG SO WILL JUST KEEP
VCFG IN THE TAF.  FOR THIS AFTN WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SELY.  ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

ANY RAINFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL BE UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH WITH THUNDERSTORMS SO NO FLOODING ISSUES EXPECTED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK



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