Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 012115
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
315 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS AND
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED WITH A FEW OF THESE. SOME SNOW ALSO
SEEN OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10-11
THOUSAND FEET. THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...WHILE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALSO ALLOW THESE SHOWERS TO DECREASE. THEY SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY 8-9 PM AND TO THE EASTERN BORDER
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...DONT SEE MUCH SHOWER THREAT ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONT
COMING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES SHOULD PRODUCE UPSLOPE
AND A LOW RISK OF SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK. HAVE REDUCED THOSE POPS
A BIT.

ON THURSDAY...WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO DEVELOP ON
THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS NOW POINTING
TO THE NORTH OF DENVER AS ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS VERY SHALLOW
AND SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS INITIALLY MORE MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
THE NORTH SO WILL HAVE BEST POPS THERE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ANOTHER BUT STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. IT IS DURING THIS PERIOD WHEN RAIN/SNOW
MIX SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND BECOME HEAVIER AS
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE...STRONGER Q-G...AND DEEPER MOISTURE JOIN
FORCES. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS AND MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION RESERVED
FOR THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH MOUNTAIN/FOOTHILLS AREAS NEAR THE WY
BORDER COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE
FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON SNOW RATES SO A CONSERVATIVE ACCUMULATION
FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS SEEMS PRUDENT...ONLY AROUND 1 INCH
ON GRASSY SURFACES. MAIN THREAT FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW CONSIDERING MOST OF
THIS STARTS LATER SECOND PERIOD INTO THE THIRD PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME...EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS LOOK
SOLID ADVISORY AMOUNTS...AND POSSIBLE ADVISORY FOR I-25 URBAN
CORRIDOR/PALMER DIVIDE DEPENDING ON SNOW INTENSITY AND TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE ALL SNOW
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...PALMER DIVIDE AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
WET BULB TEMPERATURE FORECASTS INDICATE THAT A RAIN SNOW MIX FURTHER
EAST ON THE PLAINS MUCH OF THE EVENING. QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL AID IN THE
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE DENVER AREA WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO
THE FACT THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. THE GFS...NAM
AND ECMWF ALL SHOW 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN METRO DENVER...WHICH I
THINK IS SOMEWHAT TOO HIGH. MY BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE...6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS AND A TRACE TO 4 INCHES FURTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY MID FRIDAY MORNING AS A DOWNSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH SOME OROGRAPHICS COULD PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THROUGH NOON.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN DENVER IN THE LOW 70`S ON
SUNDAY. MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS STILL A THREAT TIL AROUND
02Z-03Z FOR THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS. WITH THE STORMS BEING HIGH
BASED...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT SO HAVE GONE
WITH TEMPO VARIABLE WINDS GUSTS. POTENTIAL FOR MAX GUSTS AROUND
30-40 KNOTS IN WELL MIXED AND DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL...TURNING MORE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT AROUND 02Z-05Z.
THEN WINDS RELAX AGAIN BEFORE STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT...WE ANTICIPATE A STRATUS DECK AND LOWER
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP WITH A SHALLOW UPSLOPE COMPONENT. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A LITTLE LATER
NOW...TOWARD 15Z-19Z AND THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
TURNING TO ALL SNOW TOWARD 21Z-22Z THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES OF 4-5SM
POSSIBLE WITH LIGHTER PRECIP...THEN 1/2SM-1SM IN HEAVIER SNOW
STARTING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE SNOW ENDS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
SLUSH POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS WITH HEAVIER SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



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