Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 301650
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1050 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SATELLITE PICTURES AND OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE
CLOUDINESS OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
ARE PRETTY WEAK IN MOST AREAS AS WELL. LITTLE TO CHANGE RIGHT NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE PLAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH
THE SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW AND COOL ADVECTION. THERE WERE SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS EARLY THIS MORNING STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND IN THE COLDER AIRMASS SHOULD SEE SOME
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST WRF SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
NICELY AND LARGELY WENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. MOST PLACE THAT WILL
SEE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HAVE ALREADY REACHED END OF
GROWING SEASON CRITERIA OF 28F OR COLDER SO NO FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING ON SUNDAY DUE
TO STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES...DOWNSTREAM FROM A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY COULD BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE GREAT BASIN. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS INCREASING.

FOR MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS EACH HAVE A SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
AS IT MOVES OVER COLORADO. THE ECMWF HAS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST
SOLUTION...WHICH INCLUDES A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER ARIZONA ON
TUESDAY THAT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS STAY CLOSER TO EACH OTHER WITH THE POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH SOME ENERGY HANGING BACK OVER NEW MEXICO.
EITHER SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THAT IT IS HARD TO TELL WHICH SOLUTION WILL COME TO PASS...THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW PERCENTAGE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION  ALONG WITH THE  COOLEST TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

BEYOND TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-DEVELOP OVER COLORADO
BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

WEAK WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT DIA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATEST MODELS STILL POINT TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY 21Z. NORMAL
DRAINAGE PATTERNS TONIGHT ARE NOT CUT AND DRY...BUT SHOULD
PREVAIL EVENTUALLY LATER THIS EVENING. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE
WEAKER THAN NORMAL. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING ISSUES THE REST OF
THE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RJK



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