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000
FXUS65 KBOU 251347
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
647 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR A SOONER THAN EXPECTED INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE THIS MORNING. CIRRUS SHIELD COULD BECOME
RATHER THICK OVER PARTS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE MAIN BATCH OF HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE NOW OVER NWRN WYOMING ARRIVES. FURTHERMORE ALSO REMOVED
MENTION OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS OVER SRN WASHINGTON AND NRN LINCOLN
COUNTIES HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED AND SKIES HAVE QUICKLY CLEARED IN
THIS AREA. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
OVER THIS AREA AS WELL LATER THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS STRONG THIS MORNING THE PRODUCT A
TIGHT THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO
OUR EAST AND A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. SPOKES OF JET
ENERGY AND MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
GENERATE A COUPLE NW-SE BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT THIS HOUR. POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL ALSO
OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER MTN ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION INCREASING
MTN TOP STATIC STABILITY COMBINED WITH A MARGINAL MEAN STATE
CRITICAL LAYER CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT DOWNWARD STRONG MOMENTUM
ALOFT RESULTING IN GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE UP AROUND
TIMBERLINE AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE. GUSTY NWLY
WINDS ALSO OCCURRING IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PARK WHERE PORTIONS OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 285
WAS CLOSED DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY. AT LAST CHECK
THE HIGHWAY HAS BEEN REOPENED.

FOR TODAY IN THE SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE THE SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
ON THE PLAINS COMING TO AN BY MID-MORNING AS THE STRANDS OF
SLANTWISE LIFT AND INSTABILITY GENERATED BY THE TAIL END OF A
PASSING JET MAXIMA EXITS THE AREA. FURTHERMORE THE GUSTY AND AT
TIMES STRONG W/NWLY WINDS IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD ALSO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS THE CROSS STATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FLATTENING OUT...THE MOUNTAIN WAVE BREAKS DOWN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
DECREASES. CLEARING WAS NOW UNDERWAY BUT LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON COULD SEE SKIES FILL AGAIN WITH BANDS OF HIGH
CLOUD ACCORDING TO NAM AND WRF SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY. CAN
SEE THESE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE RACING SOUTHWARD OVER CNTRL MONTANA
AND NRN WYOMING. DON`T BELIEVE THEY/LL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS
TODAY. SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES...THE WARMUP CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON THE PLAINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 50S ACRS THE NERN
CORNER. 30S AND LOWER 40S EXPECTED IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
TONIGHT...SKIES CLEAR WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OUT WEST MOVES CLOSER. COULD SEE GUSTY WLY
WINDS REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ESPLY ABOVE TIMBERLINE AND ON EAST
SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE. GUSTS POSSIBLY IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE.
LOWS TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH WARMEST
READINGS IN BREEZY AREAS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT
INTO COLORADO ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING A BIT AND MOVING INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS LATER ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. NOT QUITE RECORD MATERIAL BUT PRETTY DANG
WARM FOR LATE JANUARY. RECORDS FOR DENVER ON MONDAY IS 73 DEGREES.

ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...A WEAKENING UPPER TROF MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND APPROACHES WESTERN
COLORADO.  EXPECT INCREASING MID/HI LEVEL MOISTURE OVER COLORADO
WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT COOLING ON THE PLAINS. BY LATE IN
THE DAY COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS A BIT. STILL LOW POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH UNFAVORABLE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW.

THE TROF MOVES OVER COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHIFTS THE FLOW
ALOFT MORE WESTERLY AND A BETTER OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT INTO THE
MOUNTAINS LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED COOLING YET LOOKS
DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETS UP BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS NEXT PACIFIC
STORY SYSTEM MOVES IN OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND
SPREADS AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SNEAKS INTO
THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK NORTHERN
BRANCH TROF AND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO ON
FRIDAY WITH MORE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO AS IT IS NOW SHOWING A WEAKER TROF MORE LIKE
THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION. STILL FAIRLY CONVOLUTED SO WILL STICK WITH
LOW POPS IN THE LATER PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRIER AND WARMER AIR
SPREADS OVER THE REGION. SELY SFC WINDS OF 8-17KTS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME
WILL TURN TO A S-SWLY DIRECTION AND REDUCE IN SPEED BY SUNRISE.
HOWEVER NEAR THE FOOTHILLS...AT KBJC...WESTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KTS UNTIL MID- MORNING. WINDS
AT KBJC SHOULD THEN SHIFT TO A NLY WIND AT SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT BACK TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AT
10-22 KTS WHERE THEY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT KDEN AND
KAPA WILL BEHAVE SIMILARLY TODAY...BUT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON LOOK
FOR A SHIFT TO S-SWLY WINDS AT SPEEDS UNDER 12KTS WHERE THEY WILL
REMAIN OVERNIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER