Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

642
FXUS65 KBOU 041836
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1136 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

THE CLOUD SHIELD WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS GETTING INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA RIGHT NOW. THERE IS NO SNOW FALLING OVER
THE CWA YET ACCORDING TO RADARS CAMERAS AND OBSERVATIONS. WILL
MAKE A FEW MINOR ALTERATIONS TO THE GFE GRIDS...NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. CURRENT POPS FOR THE INCOMING SYSTEM SEEM OKAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE DECREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AS STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE AND JET STREAK
HAVE MOVED EAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE. EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAD
SOME GUSTS IN THE 40-60 MPH RANGE OVER BOULDER AND NORTHERN
JEFFERSON COUNTIES WITH BLOWING SNOW AND ROAD CLOSURES ALONG
HIGHWAY 93. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECREASING WIND TREND IN THE
FORECASTS THIS MORNING.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS APPROACHING TROF WHICH IS NOW MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS TROF WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME WEAK QG ASCENT. GIVEN THE
QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND RATHER NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE SNOW
POTENTIAL WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. STILL COULD SEE 1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
OROGRAPHIC FLOW IMPROVES THIS EVENING WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
FOR A TIME.

ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AM THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACHING TROF. MODELS
STILL PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE.  NOT MUCH OF A FRONTAL
PUSH OR UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NOT EXPECTING A GREAT
DEAL OF SNOWFALL OVER THE PLAINS...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS AND
GENERALLY FAVORING THE PALMER DIVIDE. SHOULD SEE SOME GRADUAL
CLEARING AND DIMINISHMENT OF SNOWFALL FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.
LIGHT SNOW MAY STILL BE FALLING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH. THE SNOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE DISSIPATING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAYS READINGS AS SUN WILL HELP WARM THINGS...HOWEVER COLDER AIR
WILL HAVE SPREAD OVER THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A STRENGTHENING SURFACE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SOME OF THE WESTERN URBAN SUBURBS MAY FEEL THESE BREEZY
WINDS. WIND SPEEDS IN THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS WILL BE 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RECENT SNOWFALL MAY BE BLOWN AROUND

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AS
WELL AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
GFS AND NAM COMPARED TO THE EC AS A FASTER SOLUTION MAKES MORE
SENSE PUSHING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG JET TO HELP PUSH
IT ALONG. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A JET IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE...AND QG VERTICAL MOTION PUSHES
DOWNWARD. WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. AGAIN...RECENT
SNOWFALL MAY BE BLOWN AROUND.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER COLORADO TO BRING WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. RECENT SNOWFALL MAY DELAY THE FULL AFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE 50S BY
TUESDAY...CONTINUING TO GET WARMER THROUGH MID WEEK. NO SNOW IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

THE WIND FIELDS AT DIA SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND ADHERE TO CLOSE TO NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS. WILL KEEP
THE 20-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW GOING FOR NOW MAINLY THIS
EVENING. CEILINGS COULD GET TO BKN050/060 THIS EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RJK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.