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000
FXUS65 KBOU 102109
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
309 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE UPSTREAM UNTIL ABOUT SALT
LAKE CITY...THEN SOME LOWER CLOUDS. OROGRAPHIC SNOW NOT LIKELY TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE FRONTAL
SNOW BAND LIKELY MOVING IN AROUND SUNRISE AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY. SLOWED DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WOUND UP LEAVING THE TOTAL AMOUNTS ABOUT THE SAME.
FOR THE PLAINS THE NAM REMAINS A DRY OUTLIER. APPEARS TO BE ONE OF
THOSE SITUATIONS WITH INSTABILITY...A JET...BUT INITIALLY DRY LOW
LEVELS AND THE NAM TENDS TO NOT MAKE THE SNOW REACH THE GROUND IN
THESE CASES. OTHER MODELS STILL APPEAR SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WE
HAVE GOING...WITH PERHAPS A BIT LESS SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR AREA THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAD. BUT STILL AN INCH OR TWO IN
MOST AREAS...LESS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CHEYENNE AND PALMER
RIDGES. THIS WILL LIKELY TURN OUT TO BE A QUICK HITTING POST
FRONTAL SNOW BAND...2 TO 4 HOURS OF STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE
SNOWFALL...WITH EVERYTHING QUICKLY DYING DOWN BY EVENING. MAIN
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INCLUDED SLOWING DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW ON THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING...AND BLENDING IN THE NAM WIND
GUIDANCE...GFS IS WINDIER AS USUAL AND SEEMS A BIT MUCH. COULD BE
NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR A FEW
HOURS. STILL SOME THREAT OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE PALMER
DIVIDE IF IT SNOWS ENOUGH...BUT AGAIN ONLY FOR A SHORT TIME. AT
THIS POINT THE THREAT OF EITHER HIGH WINDS...HEAVIER SNOW...OR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LOOKS TOO LOW TO ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...WEAK ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER
US. THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER CLOSED LOW IS OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA AT 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS
AND BECOMES AN OPEN TROUGH AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO
THURSDAY LATE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH IT THAN
MOST OF THE REST. MODELS HAVE DOWNWARD QG FORCING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN NEAR NEUTRAL
ENERGY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS ENDS
FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN THE
NORMAL PATTERNS MIGHT GET A BIT OF DOWNSLOPING TO THEM INTO
THURSDAY...THEN BACK TO NORMAL PATTERNS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME TUESDAY EVENING EARLY...THEN IT
DISSIPATES QUICKLY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO BE VERY DRY. THERE IS A TAD OF MOISTURE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OTHERWISE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
ARE PRETTY DRY TOO. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOW
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA TUESDAY EVENING...THEN THERE IS NOTHING
PROGGED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A TINY BIT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING. FOR
POPS...WILL LINGER SOME EARLY TUESDAY EVENING IN APPROPRIATE
AREAS...THEN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE 3-8 C WARMER THAN TUESDAY`S. THURSDAY`S HIGHS ARE
2-5 C WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...MODELS HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST OF COLORADO WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVE
IN...BUT THE GFS HAS A RIDGE. MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING...BECOMING NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING.
COLD FRONT WILL PASS AROUND 15Z WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING IN
THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. INSTRUMENT APPROACHES WILL BE NEEDED TO
KDEN THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY 00Z. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
IN THE DENVER AREA WITH LIMITED IMPACT DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD