863
FXUS65 KBOU 110536
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1136 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/thunderstorms early this evening with gusty
winds 30-65 mph.

- Scattered to likely late day showers and thunderstorms Friday
and Saturday.

- Drier Sunday and Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms
mainly in the mountains.

- Scattered to likely late day showers and thunderstorms return
Tuesday through Thursday for much of the CWA with temperatures
below seasonal normals.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Convection is developing across the CWA this afternoon. Radar and
observations are showing outflow winds from the storms were
gusting up to 65 mph. Earlier this morning, a gust to 70 mph was
recorded at DIA at 1010Z.

Concerning the convection for the rest of this afternoon and
evening, models, including the CAMs, are all indicating scattered
coverage for much of the CWA, but only through this evening; no
later than 02Z.

There will be weak northwesterly flow aloft Friday into Saturday
with a weak upper trough developing just east of Colorado Saturday
mid day. Models continue to show decent CAPE. Progged precipitable
water values continue to be over 1.00 inch for the eastern 2/3rds
of the CWA Friday through Saturday night. The best rainfall
amounts on the QPF grids are progged for late day Friday, less
late day Saturday. Temperatures are below seasonal normals both
Friday and Saturday.

On Sunday, the upper ridge builds in from the west and the
airmass dries out a bit with temperatures getting above seasonal
normals. Pops will be pretty low and confined to the mountains and
higher foothills. The plains look to have poor instability with
low CAPE and a mid level cap in place.

For the later days, Monday through Thursday, the upper ridge is
around on Monday with temperatures to stay above normal.  There is
weak upper troughing Monday evening into Tuesday with a decent cold
front to move down across the CWA. Flat upper ridging is progged
on Wednesday and Thursday with the below normal temperatures to
continue. For pops, Monday is the driest day, with scattered
convection relegated to just the mountains. Late day convection
and precipitation are pretty decent Tuesday through Thursday, with
Wednesday having the highest pops.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Light southerly drainage winds early this morning will become
briefly VRB near/after sunrise before a frontal boundary brings a
shift to NNE/NE winds around 16-17Z for Denver area terminals.
Gusts 20-25 kts will be possible in association with this
stalling front through early afternoon.

By mid-afternoon, developing thunderstorms will begin to push east
off the higher terrain, with greatest chances of terminal impacts
between 22-02Z this afternoon/evening. A period of W/NW outflow
will be possible as any convection approaches, with increasingly
VRB and outflow-driven wind directions likely after 22Z. There`s
notable uncertainty in the duration of convection, which a chance
(~30%) of ISO-SCT -TSRA persisting into the mid to late evening.
Will cover this with a PROB30 for KBJC and KDEN. Some form of
N/NE flow is likely to follow for the overnight period, and lower
CIGS 050-060 are favored to develop near/after midnight, with
potential for lower bases near 020 at times.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...rjk
AVIATION...Rodriguez