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000
FXUS65 KBOU 192035
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
235 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

HIGH CLOUD DECK HAS THINNED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION FILLING
IN BEHIND IT. MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS ORGANIZING AS EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF I-70 AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE PALMER DIVIDE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT THEY WILL ALSO BE ENCOUNTERING A MORE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER. AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IS EVEN MORE
STABLE SO HAVE FURTHER REDUCED/REMOVED POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THE PASSING TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH
IS VERY WEAK TONIGHT...SO EXPECT MOST OF THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...WE WILL START OFF WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WHICH
WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WARM FROM TODAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL
BE REACHED BY MID DAY. STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MOST NUMEROUS
IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST OF THE
AREA. A DECENT UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS GENERATE A TOUCH OF QPF MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND KEPT SOME LOW SHOWERY-TYPE POPS IN THE FORECAST TO
COVER THAT. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EAST OF COLORADO SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLIES OVERSPREADING THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THE MODELS ARE
DROPPING A BIT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS COLORADO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT QG LIFT IS RATHER UNORGRANIZED
AND MOISTURE IS SPARSE. ADDITIONALLY...DECENT CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST ALL POINT TO WIND BEING THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE OF
THIS FEATURE. THESE WINDS COULD CREATE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT
TIMES MIDWEEK. MOREOVER THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE WEDNESDAY. ONCE THIS
TROUGH PASSES BY WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS NOW TIL AROUND 02Z. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE BUT THREAT IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS COULD LOWER TO AROUND 6 THOUSAND FEET FOR ILS LANDING
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE VISUAL LANDINGS
WILL PREVAIL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 03Z-07Z...ALTHOUGH VARIABLE
WIND GUSTS 15-25 KTS POSSIBLE FROM PASSING SHOWERS BEFORE 03Z.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY BY 18Z SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH