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000
FXUS65 KBOU 210232
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
832 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 827 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

BATCH OF CONVECTION THAT FLARED OVER THE FRONT RANGE EARLY THIS
EVENING WAS MOVING EAST AND DECAYING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
NOW BUT STILL A GOOD WIND FIELD WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS IN THE
STERLING AREA. REMAINING SHOWERS UPSTREAM SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING THE FRONT RANGE...WITH PLAINS ACTIVITY ENDING BY 10
PM...SO NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES NEEDED. EVAPORATIVE COOLING HAS
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 80...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
COOLING SLOW THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WILL STICK WITH THE GOING
FORECAST OF MILD TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS MAINLY UPPER 60S AND SOME
LOWER 70S IN THE WARMER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS CONVECTIVE BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE/PARK COUNTY AREA. SOME OF
THESE WERE JUST BEGINNING TO SPILL ONTO THE NEARBY ADJACENT
PLAINS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
AS AIRMASS IS NOW SUFFICIENTLY MIXED IN THE I-25 CORRIDOR. WHILE
THE SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED...THE OUTFLOW FROM
THESE HIGH BASED SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH AS AIRMASS IS WELL MIXED TO ABOUT 550 MB.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT DRIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST INTO LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COLD STICK AROUND LONGER THIS EVENING WITH
PLUME OF MOISTURE PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE. AS A RESULT...WE
EXPECT EVEN WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME APPEARS TO SHIFT EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE. AS A RESULT...THE PLUME OF DRY AIR CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN WESTERN ARIZONA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS VARY IN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS PUSHES...SO WE COULD STILL SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
SPARK A FEW HIGH BASED AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.
ANOTHER HOT DAY ON TAP WITH SIMILAR HIGHS TO THOSE OBSERVED TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING THIS TIME AROUND. THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL KEEP WARM AIR IN
PLACE OVER COLORADO WITH WEAK WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS HINT AT SURGES OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVING UP FROM ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN
THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SURGE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. THE WEAK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY MAY DO LITTLE
MORE THAN HOLD MOISTURE AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS AND KEEP ANY
DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID 90S ON TUESDAY. WITH A LITTLE MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW MORE
DEGREES COOLER ON THOSE DAYS...BUT STILL IN THE LOWER 90S.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT NO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE A
LITTLE BIT MORE AS COLORADO COMES UNDER A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE REGION. UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...SUMMER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 827 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND
THROUGH 04Z BUT ONLY IMPACT WOULD BE TO ACCELERATE THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS FROM 10 KNOTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR A SHORT TIME.
ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE MONDAY WITH A FEW
WIND SHIFTS LIKELY AFTER 21Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD