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000
FXUS65 KBOU 141602
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1002 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS STILL ON TRACK. STORM SYSTEM HAS PUSHED
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. STILL SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF SUMMIT AND GRAND COUNTIES AND
ALONG THE PARK AND GORE RANGES OF WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY AS NOTED
BY WEB CAMS. AS DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIR SPREADS INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING...THESE LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE COMING TO AN
END. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST RAP INDICATING A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR INDICATE
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 100 J/KG FAR ACROSS LOGAN...SEDGWICK AND
PHILLIPS COUNTIES BY 21Z. THERE IS ALSO SOME CIN AS WELL. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS WITH THIS WAVE...PERHAPS A BIT MORE MID
LEVEL CLOUD FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. COOLER AIRMASS TO BE OVER THE
AREA TODAY...HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST PLAINS STILL
LOOKING GOOD. MAY NEED TO LOWER THE HIGHS ACROSS ZONE 36 AND 41
AS THIS AREA RECEIVED DECENT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE COLD AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. THE LIGHT SNOW COULD
LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. DRIER MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS AROUND 40 DEGREES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. WARMER AIR ALOFT
WILL START TO MOVE OVER COLORADO TONIGHT...HOWEVER LOWS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

ON TUESDAY IT WILL BE WARMER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACCOMPANIED BY A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER NERN
CO. THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE FM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. TUESDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH NRN CO. THIS SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE AS WELL ORGANIZED AS THE ONE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
COULD STILL SPREAD A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PCPN OVER
THE REGION.  AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...THE MDLS GENERATE SOME QPF IN
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH AXIS BRUSHES ACROSS NERN CO...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE NERN CO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTN. NOT MUCH
PCPN INITIALLY BUT A FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT.  SHALLOW UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY 00Z THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. WEAK QG ASCENT AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...STRONGEST FM 06Z TO
18Z THURSDAY AS THE MAIN AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NRN CO. BY THE AFTN...DECREASING QG ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP ALOFT BUT SHALLOW ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A DRY AND SUBSIDENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER CO AHEAD OF ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS A
RESULT...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY. OVER THE
WEEKEND...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH COLORADO FM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE AFTN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO
THE NERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO REMAIN MILD OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

WINDS TRYING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA
AIRPORTS...STILL MORE WESTERLY AT KDEN AND KAPA. SHOULD BECOME
MORE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR...THOUGH...AS NORTHWEST
FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE MIXES DOWN WITH HELP FROM SUBSIDENCE.
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF CURRENT TAFS FOR THE UPCOMING 18Z
ISSUANCE...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING CLOCKWISE TO THE
NORTHEAST THEN SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE GOING TO
DRAINAGE THIS EVENING. VFR TO CONTINUE WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS.
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MID LEVEL CLOUD LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE...APPEARS THIS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST
OF DENVER. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL TUESDAY...MAY BE A BIT MORE
SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...D-L