Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 150205
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
805 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Thunderstorms have ended in the Denver area, but showers and a few
storms continued from Park county into the Palmer Divide. Those
showers will be slow to decrease overnight with weak lift and deep
moisture ahead of the upper level disturbance/weak upper low over
central Colorado. We will delay the decrease of those PoPs as
this system only inches eastward through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

As expected much of the showers and thunderstorms confined to
southern portions of the cwa, mainly mover the mountains along and
south of the interstate 70 corridor and over the Palmer Divide.
Further North of these areas minimal or no activity. The high
pressure ridge aloft centered over Wyoming with a continued light
easterly flow aloft. This flow will continue to advect drier air
into much of northern Colorado from central high plains. There is
an embedded weak wave moving slowly north over central Colorado
which is aiding in storm development. PW values up around an inch
so expect heavy rain with slow moving storms. Will keep just a
slight chance for storms from around Denver with higher chances
further south. Appears this wave over mountains will eventually
slide to the southeast on Saturday which will send the higher pops
further southeast across Elbert and Lincoln counties. For northern
sections of CWA, still a fair amount of mid level dryness so only
isolated convection at best. Little change in temperatures
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

The persistent upper level ridge over the western United States is
forecast to remain in place through much of the next week. While
it remains in place, winds aloft over Colorado will be weak and
the intrusion of sub-tropical moisture will become the driving
factor for the development of diurnal shower activity. Through the
weekend, the winds at low and mid levels will continue to be out
of the east as a surface high continues over the central plains
and low pressure remains over western Colorado and Utah. Sub-
tropical moisture will be moving over southern Colorado, but drier
air from the northern plains will be moving into northeast
Colorado. This will tend to limit shower activity over the plains.
Scattered mountain showers should develop each afternoon.

Through the first half of next week, the ECMWF increases the
moisture northward over the state which could result in a little
more shower activity onto the plains. Temperatures will be around
seasonal normals through the forecast period. Given that the winds
aloft will be weak through most of the next several days, the main
threat from shower activity is going to be locally heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 805 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

VFR conditions will persist through Saturday. Storm threat for the
evening has ended, and showers overnight will stay to the south of
the Denver metro area airports. Only a slight chance that storms
would redevelop northward far enough to affect the Denver TAF
sites Saturday afternoon. Normal diurnal wind patterns will
prevail through Saturday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Dankers
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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