Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 271647
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1047 AM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA IS GOING TO KEEP THE DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME WELL TO THE WEST OF US THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DAYTIME
HEATING IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE
AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE STATE TOMORROW...THIS AFTERNOON
MAY BE THE LAST OF THE EXCEEDINGLY WARM DAYS OF THE SUMMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA TODAY AND
INTO NEVADA TONIGHT. A STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT
IS PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM ARIZONA TO SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AT THIS TIME. OVER COLORADO...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
RESIDE. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS
COLORADO. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY`S
READINGS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH HARDLY A CLOUD.

HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST. EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN OVER FAR WESTERN COLORADO AND UTAH. IT WILL BE A
MILD NIGHT AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WRN US WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ON
SUN WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE MTNS WITH A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SUN
AFTN INTO SUN NIGHT.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT AREAS NR THE
FOOTHILLS FM NORTH OF DENVER TO THE WY BORDER MAINLY SUN NIGHT.  AS
FOR HIGHS 850-700 TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ON SUN OVER NERN CO SO
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

FOR MON INTO MON NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT
EASTWARD AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW PRES INTENSIFIES
OVER ERN CO.  INCREASING MID LVL QG ASCENT ALONG WITH FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MON AFTN INTO MON NIGHT.  THREAT OF SVR STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NERN PLAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF NEW RAYMER TO LIMON LINE.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO.

BY TUE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ENE OF THE AREA WITH
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH.  HOWEVER FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS COMBINED WITH SOME MINOR QG ASCENT AND LINGERING
MOISTURE IN THE MTNS MAY LEAD TO A CHC OF SHOWERS TUE AFTN INTO TUE
NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE MTNS TUE NIGHT.
OVER NERN CO FOR NOW WILL KEEP A DRY FCST IN PLACE WITH HIGHS NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.

FOR WED INTO WED NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF COOL FRONT.  QG
FIELDS SHOW ANOTHER SHOT OF MID ASCENT WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT SO
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GOOD CHC OF PCPN ACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW IN THE
MTNS.  HIGHS ON WED WILL BE COOLER AS READINGS OVER NERN CO DROP
INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THIS DRYING THAN
THE GFS.  THUS THE ECMWF HAS PCPN PRETTY MUCH OVER BY 12Z WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS SOME ACROSS THE PLAINS THRU MIDDAY.  FOR NOW WILL JUST
KEEP IN SOME LOW POPS ON THU DUE TO TIMING ISSUES.  AS FOR HIGHS
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S OVER NERN CO.  BY FRI DRY NWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS ANOTHER COOL FNT MOVES ACROSS NERN
CO. AT THIS POINT NEITHER THE ECMWF OR GFS SHOW ANY MOISTURE WITH
THIS FNT SO WILL KEEP FCST DRY WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE 60S OVER
NERN CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

NO AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL TREND TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
RETURN TO DIURNAL SOUTHERLIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS


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