Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 200717 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTEDD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
117 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE BATCH OF SHOWERS THAT FORMED OVER EASTERN PARK AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES ABOUT 2 HOURS AGO HAS SHRANK IN SIZE AND HAS REDUCED IN
INTENSITY. THEY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST AND MAY
STILL CLIP THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE DENVER METRO AREA NOW
THROUGH 3 AM. OTHERWISE THE FEW REMAINING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY AND ACROSS WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES SHOULD BE BUT A
MEMORY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE FEATURES. HAVE ALSO SPED UP CLEARING OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR AS DRIER AIR WAS A
ALREADY SPILLING DOWN FROM WYOMING. THE CWA IS STILL NOT OUT OF
THE WOODS AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW T-STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER TODAY WITH THE UPPER LOW IN WESTERN NEW
MEXICO RACING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE THAT FOR THE NEXT DISCUSSION ISSUANCE.

.SHORT TERM UPDATE
ISSUED AT 911 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

ONE MORE ORGANIZED BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE DENVER AREA
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO RAISED POPS FOR THIS AREA. ALSO
SLOWED THE CLEARING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING A LITTLE BIT.
REST OF FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST OF THE
AREA. A DECENT UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS GENERATE A TOUCH OF QPF MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND KEPT SOME LOW SHOWERY-TYPE POPS IN THE FORECAST TO
COVER THAT. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EAST OF COLORADO SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLIES OVERSPREADING THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THE MODELS ARE
DROPPING A BIT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS COLORADO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT QG LIFT IS RATHER UNORGRANIZED
AND MOISTURE IS SPARSE. ADDITIONALLY...DECENT CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST ALL POINT TO WIND BEING THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE OF
THIS FEATURE. THESE WINDS COULD CREATE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT
TIMES MIDWEEK. MOREOVER THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE WEDNESDAY. ONCE THIS
TROUGH PASSES BY WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 114 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

AN AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE DENVER METRO AREA...INCLUDING KAPA...WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST POSSIBLY CLIPPING KDEN DURING THIS
HOUR. CIGS AT KAPA AND KDEN COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO AROUND 6000
FEET AGL AS THESE WEAKENING SHOWERS PASS BY. AFTER 3 AM...SHOULD
SEE DRIER AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL
RAISE CEILINGS AND PUT AN END TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY IN DIRECTION AT SPEEDS MOSTLY UNDER 12 KTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE...BAKER
AVIATION UPDATE...BAKER
LONG TERM...ET



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