Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 200048
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
648 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. LOOKS
LIKE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WAS PROVIDING MORE
LIFT AND THUS BETTER STORM COVERAGE. MEANWHILE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM NORTHEAST PLAINS WAS WORKING SOUTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO POP RENEWED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE AND I-25
CORRIDOR IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE MADE MINOR POP
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS AS WELL. MOST SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AROUND 10 OR 11 PM...BUT CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER HIGH COUNTRY...AND MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION SPREADING EAST ALONG CHEYENNE RIDGE.
CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN MOST AREAS BY SUNSET...LINGERING A BIT
LONGER OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
COLORADO EARLY SATURDAY...SO FORECAST OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY LOOKS REASONABLE. AIRMASS WILL BE A BIT
WETTER SATURDAY...WITH ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH...SO HAVE RAISED
POPS OVER PALMER DIVIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THROUGH NEVADA SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH OUT
THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH TO AN
INCH AND A QUARTER OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
IN PLACE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING MONDAY. COLORADO WILL BE
UNDER A WESTERLY TROUGHINESS FLOW ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH MOISTURE
SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST...LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE BEING OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY AND
PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER COLORADO BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
AIRPORTS 02Z-03Z...KEEPING A THREAT OF ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE AREA TIL AROUND 04Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DESPITE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. HOWEVER...AIRMASS IS ONLY MARGINALLY MOIST SO
NO STRATUS OR LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS SATURDAY WOULD LIKELY HOLD OFF TIL 03Z-06Z AND EVEN THATS
ONLY ABOUT 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH


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