Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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786
FXUS65 KBOU 291034
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
434 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 425 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Upper low centered over northeast new Mexico at this hour is
forecast to continue its east-northeast trek over the northern
Texas Panhandle this morning and eventually up over central Kansas
in the afternoon. As the low moves away, should see the last of
the light precip on the plains and Palmer Divide of northeast
Colorado wrapping up this morning. However, the patchy fog and low
clouds blanketing much of northeast Colorado at this hours will
be slower to erode as low-level moisture is expected to continue
to wrap back into the state around the low at least through
late this morning. Areas up along the Wyoming border will see
this precip end first, if it hasn`t yet. Bands of light snowfall
or rain/snow now criss-crossing the Palmer Divide should dissipate
around mid-morning. Mesoscale models suggest another 1-2 inches
of snow over higher areas of southern Jefferson, Douglas and
western elbert counties by 15Z. However, most of this snow should
melt on contact with roadways since air temperatures have remained
above 0c deg in most areas overnight.

Later today models show gusty northerly winds developing on the
plains with a tight pressure gradient on the back side of the
departing low. Could see gusts in the 20-30 kt range during the
late morning to mid-afternoon hours mainly east of the I-25
corridor. May also see these gusty nly winds up along the
Cheyenne Ridge in northern Larimer County.

Subsidence and drier air moves in for tonight as high pressure
builds in from the west. However, high level moisture rounding the
top of the upper ridge may end up producing a veil of high clouds
overnight and possibly some standing mountain cloudiness late.

Temperatures today will be generally 5-8 deg f warmer than
yesterday, while overnight temperatures are excepted to be little
changed.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 425 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

A brief respite on Thursday as upper level ridging moves across
Colorado with drier and warmer conditions. Focus then turns to
next major system which will impact Colorado weather on Friday and
Saturday time frame. The next system will deepen over far south
central Utah by Friday morning before slowly shifting southeast
into Northern New Mexico on Saturday. The models are fairly
consistent with this track up to this point. This set up will
provide for deepening moist, upslope flow from the east and
northeast during the day on Friday and up to around 400mb by
Friday night along with modest qg ascent. Temperatures will be
warm enough for rain on the plains on Friday but then looks like
snow level will lower to 5000-6000 feet by early Saturday morning.
Given the good qpf from the mountains could need hilites for
heavy snow again for the Front range mountains/foothills and
possibly over the Palmer Divide. Still a bit too early for winter
storm watches yet.

The storm system weakens as it drifts southeast into Texas
Panhandle by early Sunday. Expect the rain and snow to decrease
Saturday night and early Sunday from west to east.Another system
will move into the region in the late Monday and Tuesday time
frame but long range model solutions have not been very consistent
and tracks are quite variable though somewhat better than
yesterday`s runs. Will have mainly chance pops in this period with
cooler temperatures again, but mainly all rain on the plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 425 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

LIFR cigs and vsbys at KDEN should gradually transition to MVFR
cigs and vsbys by around 14z this morning as drier air moves down
from the north. Very light snowfall next few hours should not
accumulate. At KAPA and KBJC...should also see similar conditions
next few hours. However, the very light precip at KBJC will
alternate between rain and snow with temperatures just above
freezing. Skies will gradually clear this afternoon, with VFR
conditions developing after 17z today. Winds northerly today 8-15
kts...with gusts to around 25 kts possible at KDEN and KAPA this
afternoon.

Tonight...VFR conditions will prevail with northerly winds of
6-14 kts early gradually turning to southerly at 5-10 kts by
around 03z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Baker



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