Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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099
FXUS65 KBOU 121853
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1153 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

RAISED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PUSH OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE EAST IS LOOKING WEAKER THAN EXPECTED. STILL
HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR COMING INTO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE AND CARRIED ALONG IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME COOLER AIR FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS FILTERED INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO OVERNIGHT
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
EVEN SO...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS. FOOTHILL LOCATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY WINDS...DRIVEN BY THE MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. ALL IN ALL...A PLEASANT EARLY
SPRING-LIKE DAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING THE SUN AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SAT AS A SFC LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE MTNS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH
WARMER TEMPS.  HIGHS OVER NERN CO WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
AROUND DENVER TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT SPEEDS WILL
STAY BLO HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN A MTN WAVE WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED
WITH 45-50 KT COMPONENT ALONG WINDS.  THUS WINDS MAY GET NR HIGH
WIND CRITERIA OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.  BY SUN AFTN INTO SUN
EVENING A QUCK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN WNW
FLOW ALOFT. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MTNS
WITH LAPSE RATES IMPROVING SO WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW.
OVER NERN CO A PACIFIC TYPE FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS BY AFTN WITH
NWLY WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
SUN EVENING ALONG WITH SOME MID LVL ASCENT THIS COULD LEAD TO A
CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. SOUNDINGS SHOW WET BULB ZEROS WILL
REMAIN ABV 6000 FT SO MOST OF THE PCPN MAY END UP AS RAIN ACROSS
THE PLAINS. AS FOR HIGHS SUN AFTN READINGS WILL RANGE FM THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S OVER NERN CO.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NWLY WITH CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MTNS SO WILL KEEP
IN A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL IN THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ANOTHER SFC LEE TROUGH WILL
DVLP WITH WNW LOW LVL FLOW.  THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH A SHALLOW
LYR OF MOISTURE IN THE MTNS SO WILL MENTION A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW.
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IT WILL CONTINUE DRY AS THE LOW LVL FLOW
REMAINS WNW. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN
AND NR THE FOOTHILLS MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AS A MTN WAVE DVLPS
WITH COMPONENT ALONG WINDS INCREASING. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.  WITH DOWNSLOPE WLY LOW LVL FLOW TEMPS WILL
LIKELY RISE INTO THE 60S OVER NERN CO.  BY THU THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WSW WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE MTNS WHILE THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER.  AT THIS TIME WILL
ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN IN THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. AS FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN READINGS WILL BE WELL ABV
NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KDEN/KAPA THIS EVENING...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT WIND DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
DENVER CYCLONE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THAT COULD TURN WINDS TO W OR
NW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



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