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000
FXUS65 KBOU 150937
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
337 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL KEEP A
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA HELPED SPEED UP THE FRONT AS IT
ARRIVED A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN ADVERTISED. DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR THE
WYOMING BORDER. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO TOPPING OUT IN
THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...A FEW OF THEM POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. THE COOLER AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE WILL CAP CONVECTION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MODELS
SHOWING THE CAP WILL START TO BREAK AROUND 3 TO 4 PM...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE SOONER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SO EXPECTED MOST OF THE
STORMS TO OCCUR FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM. SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL REACH
1500-2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH GOOD SHEAR MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THE STORMS EXIT THE
STATE...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER
WESTERN COLORADO WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...HOWEVER
NOT ALL OF THE MDLS FLUSH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR. IN ANY EVENT...THE OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOWER BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDERS. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR FM THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE TABLE FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS OF 50F OR MORE WILL ALLOW FOR SFC
BASES CAPES AT OR ABOVE 1500 J/KG...WITH MODERATE SHEAR AS WELL.
AS A RESULT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONTAL INVERSION. ON TUESDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME
DRYING FM THE WEST BUT IT WILL BE NOMINAL. IT MAY BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS OF CO. NOT MUCH CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE STATE. THE AMS WILL BECOME WARMER AS
WELL AND THE WIND WILL AGAIN INCREASE SO THE FIRE DANGER WILL
BECOME ELEVATED AT THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS...SOUTH PARK AND PALMER DIVIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 11Z-16Z THIS MORNING
WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FEET. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEAST TO EAST DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AFTER 21Z. HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL END AROUND 03Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL
WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS. STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT 25 TO 30
MPH...SO THE THREAT FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN IS LOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER