Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 190317

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
917 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Issued at 847 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A cold front appears to have moved through Greeley and Longmont
and will make its way into Denver around 04z. Upper trough moving
across srn WY/nrn CO overnight...mainly area of showers will be
north of Denver over Larimer and Weld Counties... although a few
sprinkles will be possible for a short time south towards Denver.
The latest HRRR keeps the main area of showers to the north and
moves it into Nebraska after 09z. Will keep some minimal snow
accumulations in the mountains north of I-70 overnight.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Area radars are showing a few showers mostly over Larimer and
northern Weld counties. Models have the upper trough push across
the CWA by Wednesday morning....then strong northwesterly flow
aloft in the afternoon. There is pretty decent upward QG Omega
over the CWA overnight, with the best around 06Z. There will be
pretty decent subsidence in the synoptic scale Wednesday
afternoon. There is a surge of northerly flow for the plains by
late evening. There are north-northwesterlies progged by 12Z
Wednesday morning. North-northwesterlies are progged on Wednesday.
For moisture, it is not great with the most over the mountains and
foothills. The plains will have very little moisture in the lower
levels. After 12Z Wednesday morning moisture decreases for all the
CWA. The QPF fields have some measurable snow in the mountains
over night, with very limited precipitation over the plains. For
pops, there is decent synoptic scale energy overnight, but
moisture is shallow. Will keep the "likely"s over the mountains
and northern foothills, but will lower plains pops in most areas
to 0-20%s. The exception being zone 38 where I will keep,
"chance"s. For temperatures, Wednesday`s highs will be 3-5 C
colder then this afternoon`s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Strong ridging over the western U.S. is going to bring a
continuation of warm and dry weather across the northern half of
the state. First off, clear skies and a dry airmass tomorrow night
will produce optimal radiational cooling conditions that allow the
temperatures to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s across the
plains. A frost advisory may be necessary for that time period,
but it is a marginal situation at this point. Through the end of
the week, temperatures will be gradually warming with high
temperatures over the weekend in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

The next weather maker to affect the northern half of Colorado
will be next Monday night as the upper ridge is forecast to move
eastward with increasing southwesterly flow aloft over the region.
If this pattern comes to pass, the mountains will have the best
chance at receiving precipitation.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 847 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

East/southeast winds will transition to north/northwesterly with
the passage of the cold front which may be closer to 04z. Lighter
northerly winds after 09z...with north/northwesterly winds on
Wednesday. VFR conditions...could see a brief period of cigs
070-080 kft agl 04-07z. VCSH at best...likely with or shortly
after the passage of the front.




LONG TERM...Dankers
AVIATION...Cooper is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.