058
FXUS65 KBOU 100536
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1136 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon, with
  near critical fire danger in South Park.

- Scattered late day showers and thunderstorms from Thursday
  onward; likely coverage in the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Radar and satellite pictures are showing limited convection
developing over the northern border plains and southeastern plains
of the CWA currently. For this afternoon and evening, convection
will be minimal, 10-20%s over the plains. However, even weak
showers of virga could produce significant downdraft outflow
winds.

Models have the upper ridge center push westward overnight tonight
and on Thursday with the ridge flattening.  A weak upper trough
moves across the CWA on Thursday.  It will usher in a cooler airmass
with some increased moisture and limited upward synoptic scale
energy. Will keep the going 30-60% pops in. Strong outflow winds
can again be expected.

Concerning the Fire Weather Watch in South Park for Thursday,
conditions remain marginal at this time for a Red Flag Warning so
will leave the watch going for now.

There will be weak northwesterly flow aloft Thursday night into
Friday, then more weak upper troughing late Friday night/Saturday
morning.  CAPE is fairly decent both late day Friday and Saturday
with precipitable water values over 1.00 inch for most of the plains
both days. Heavier rainfall amounts are possible with the 30-70%
pops.

Look at the later days, Sunday through Wednesday, the upper ridge
moves back into Colorado Sunday and Monday, but it`s center stays
southwest of the state. There is more upper troughing, mostly north
of us, on Tuesday and Wednesday, but just enough to bring cooler air
to the CWA both days. For pops, Sunday is the driest day, with
limited convection relegated to just the mountains. Late day
convection and precipitation chances increase Monday through
Wednesday; out on the plains as well, with Wednesday having the
highs pops. Denver could see two days with 90 degree or plus
temperatures both Sunday and Monday, but Tuesday and Wednesdsay`s
highs will cool to below seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday/...
Issued at 1136 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Wind forecast for tonight, Thursday morning, and Thursday afternoon
is challenging and highly uncertain. An upper level wave is
producing high-based showers across Colorado at this time and will
continue into Thursday morning. Very little to no rainfall is
expected, but dry microbursts/outflow winds will continue to bring
wind shifts all the way through Thursday afternoon. Latest model
runs have been showing a wave of thunderstorms moving through
between 18Z and 22Z with strong outflow winds of 40-50 knots. The
shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to be done 22-24Z.
Northeast winds are expected to prevail behind the exiting
convection around 00Z Friday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ214.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...rjk
AVIATION...Meier