Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 301951
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST AS A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...ALLOWING READINGS IN THE 90S TO BE EASILY REACHED OVER THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OVER WYOMING AND PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY DOWN
INTO THE 40S...MAKING STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING OUT OF THE STORMS THE MAIN THREATS. A COOL FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING...LIKELY
DISGUISED BY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE AND
COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOME WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL BRING
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
MODELS ARE DEPICTING BOTH A THETA E RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL
AS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE SLIGHTLY SO THAT THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LESS WIND AND
MORE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING DISTURBANCES INTO COLORADO ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FLOW WILL CHANGE MORE NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL PUSHES EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW. FOR
THURSDAY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE WITH DECENT
INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS DECENT CAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE BY 18Z WITH BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDE 40-45 NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTH TO THE WYOMING
BORDER. THERE WILL BE A STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH THURSDAY BUT THE
TIMING WILL NEED TO BE RIGHT FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH PWS OF
0.90-1.00 MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

FRIDAY WILL SEE DRYING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AS THE STORM DYNAMICS
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS
MORE EASTERLY BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO NE COLORADO.
THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO PEOPLE WILL NEED TO STAY VIGILANT IF
HIKING FOR A CONTINUED LIGHTNING THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGHS HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S BY SUNDAY.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE A TRANSITION INTO THE
SEASONAL MONSOON WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
MEANS INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A
FRONTAL PUSH THIS EVENING TURNS THEM NORTHWESTERLY. BEFORE THAT
HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MAY
AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS MAINLY 00Z- 04Z. MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-40 KNOTS DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF
STORMS TODAY. THREAT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION TEMPO GUSTY WINDS IN
THAT TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL RETURN TO DRAINAGE TONIGHT. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 20Z WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAKER
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN


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