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000
FXUS65 KBOU 140212
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
812 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...SNOW WAS GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WAS MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO. HAVE CANCELLED SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER NRN
AREAS AND THE REST SHOULD EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS.

.AVIATION...MAIN SNOW AREA HAD MOVED SOUTH OF DIA HOWEVER WILL
STILL SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE UNDER ONE HALF INCH.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENTLY MOVING OVER THE
COLORADO WESTERN SLOPE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INTENSE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR IN SUMMIT COUNTY FOR THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS. LIGHTNING NETWORKS HAVE SHOWN SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
GUNNISON AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE MOUNTAIN ZONES FOR THE EARLY PARTS OF THIS
EVENING. WITH THE MODERATE AND HEAVY SNOW OCCURRING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AT THE PRESENT TIME...WILL CONTINUE ALL OF THE WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES. DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED
BY MID-EVENING.

CONCERNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE PLAINS...MESOSCALE AND HI-RES
MODELS HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...THE RAP DOES SHOW 3-4+
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY NEW
ADVISORIES...BUT WILL BE MENTIONING 2 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN
THE FIRST FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY NORTH WINDS UP TO 35 MPH SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING...SO WILL BE MENTIONING AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW.

LATER TONIGHT...THE MODELS ALL POINT TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THIS TROUGH AND RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF WEATHER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE DRY WITH SOME WARMING WHICH WILL BE LIMITED
BY THE AMOUNTS OF SOIL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT
SNOW EVENT.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRYING AND
A WARMING TREND WITH READINGS BACK TO NEAR 60 DEGREES OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS ON TUESDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY
BUT GFS STILL SHOWING THE STRONGEST AND DEEPEST SOLUTION. WITH A
BIT BETTER CONTINUITY WILL TREND LOWER TEMPERATURES AND A BIT
HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THIS PERIOD. DRY AND WARMER AGAIN FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK.

AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE MOUNTAINS OUT OVER THE PLAINS.
EMBEDDED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. SNOWFALL
RATES MAY EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR...BUT WILL GENERATLLY BE LESS
THAN ONE-HALF INCH PER HOUR. AS TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE
EVENING...ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL INCREASE. NORTH WINDS GUSTING
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ANY BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING BEGIN APPROVING
BY ABOUT 03Z WITH SNOW ENDING AROUND 06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ037-
040-045>047.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ033-034-
036-041.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER