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000
FXUS65 KBOU 100205
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
805 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.UPDATE...A MILD AIRMASS AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MILD. WILL SEE MORE HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY. COLD
FRONT AND SNOW STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS COLORADO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT KDEN AND
KAPA BY 06Z. AT KBJC...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z AND THEN DECREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WERE OCCURRING NR THE
WY BORDER BUT SHOULD DECREASE BY 01Z. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WSW ON MON WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LVL MOISTURE HOWEVER NO PCPN IS EXPECTED.  AT THE SFC LOW
PRES WILL EXTEND FM ERN WY INTO ERN CO WITH DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW
EAST OF THE MTNS.  WILL SEE ANOTHER WRM DAY WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER NERN CO.  GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH AT TIMES.

LONG TERM...STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE ACROSS ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THERE IS WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
CWA...THEN A ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY JET LEVEL WINDS FOR THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
MODERATELY STRONG QG ASCENT OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
SHOW A DECENT COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN WITH STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND IT TUESDAY MORNING. THE DIRECTION IS DUE NORTHERLY ON
THE ALL MODELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN A TAD WEST OF DUE NORTH
TUESDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVELS
MOISTURE STARTS MOVING INTO THE CWA MONDAY EVENING...THEN IT
BECOMES LOWER AND IS FAIRLY DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY DEEP MOISTURE OVER
ALL THE CWA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK QUITE
DRY. THE QPF FIELDS LOOK SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S MODEL RUNS...A TAD
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA MONDAY
EVENING...THEN A TAD OF SNOW FOR ALL THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
..THEN SOME FOR ALL THE CWA TUESDAY...WITH A TAD OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA TUESDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT THERE IS NOTHING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL STAY THE COURSE AND KEEP HIGH POPS
IN ON TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS. NO HIGHLIGHTS YET...MAYBE AN
ADVISORY SOMEWHERE...BUT THE DUE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE IS NOT THE BEST
FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGH MOUNTAINS FROM THE DIVIDE EASTWARD.
ALSO...WIND SPEEDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE NOT VERY STRONG TO HELP
WITH OROGRAPHICS. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 10 TO 21
C COLDER THAN MONDAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS COME UP 4-7 C FROM
TUESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS
HAVE WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS INDICATED...THEN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE.

AVIATION...VFR TONIGHT AND MON.  WINDS WILL REMAIN WNW THRU 00Z
AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SSW BY 03Z AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ON
MON THE WINDS SHOULD STAY MAINLY SSW THRU THE AFTN HOURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...MEIER