Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 261011
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
311 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER SWRN CO AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ENE
ACROSS ERN CO BY LATE THIS AFTN. OVERALL THERE WILL BE SOME WK MID
LVL ASCENT THRU THIS AFTN HOWEVER UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE
MARGINAL WITH RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES. THUS WILL SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW IN MANY AREAS THRU THE AFTN
HOURS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY OVER NERN CO FM MID MORNING
THRU THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE THE MAIN PART OF UPPER LVL LOW MOVES
ACROSS LATER THIS AFTN. AT THIS POINT WILL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE MTNS WITH A FEW
INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NERN
CO. THUS WILL CANCEL ALL HIGHLIGHTS WITH THE NEXT PACKAGE. AS FOR
HIGHS READINGS WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
NERN CO.

FOR TONIGHT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ENDING IN THE EVENING HOURS EXCEPT IN THE
MTNS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

ON SATURDAY...A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION WITH THE TROF AXIS SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF CO SATURDAY
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A MODEST TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SATURDAY AFTN. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE FLOW
ALOFT STRENGTHEN AS IT TRANSITIONS FM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY...
AHEAD OF THE NXT SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN
THE MOUNTAINS...MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SNOW TO RETURN TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHC OF SNOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS A STRONG ZONAL JETSTREAM TRANSLATES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CO. NORTHERN CO WL BE ON THE COLD UPLIFT SIDE OF THE JETSTREAM AT
THIS TIME...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ENHANCED BASED (CSI)
SNOWFALL. ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS...IT WILL BE
WINDY IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE DENVER AREA AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AS A
RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TO JUST THE TEENS ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE SOME BANDED
JET ENHANCEMENT OVERRUNNING THE ARCTIC AMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WL EXIST FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS WELL. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SPLIT WITH A CHUNK OF IT
SPLITTING OFF AND CLOSING OFF INTO THE GREAT BASIN RETROGRADING AS
FAR WEST AS CENTRAL CA...AND ANOTHER PART SPLINTERING OFF TO THE
EAST. AS A RESULT...A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AS A DEFORMATION
ZONE SETS UP OVER CO. CHC OF SNOW WL EXIST BUT WEAK DYNAMICS AND
OROGRAPHICS SHOULD LESSEN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW
ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN FRIGID...WITH HIGHS IN DENVER ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE ARCTIC AMS IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT WHAT WILL
REALLY HAPPEN BUT MDLS HAVE A DRIER SWLY FLOW OVER CO ASSOCIATED
WITH AT LEAST SOME SOLUTIONS...A RIDGE. FOR NOW WL STICK WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR WED/THU WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THRU THIS AFTN
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A LULL BETWEEN 9 AM AND 1 PM AS ALLUDED TO
ABOVE.  ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.
CEILINGS WILL STAY MAINLY IFR THRU THE DAY WITH VISIBILITIES MOSTLY
MVFR WHEN LIGHT SNOW OCCURS.  WINDS SHOULD STAY NNE MUCH OF THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 03Z. WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO DRAINAGE AFTER
06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK



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