Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 241806

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1206 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Issued at 1202 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

All winter and wind hilites have now expired or cancelled. Still
rain and snow showers are occurring over the previous blizzard
area but visibilities have improved, with Limon now reporting 4
miles in light snow. Any additional snowfall will be under an inch
as temperatures expected to warming into the mid/upper 30s.

UPDATE Issued at 843 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Radar imagery continues to show decreasing snowfall from Denver
southward through Jefferson and Douglas counties so have cancelled
the advisories for those areas. Still moderate to heavy snow
ongoing over the Palmer Divide and will keep blizzard warnings
going g with wind gusts in 30-50 mph range. Expect improving
conditions over the eastern plains as the upper low continues to
drop southeast over the Texas Panhandle.

UPDATE Issued at 630 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Snow ending fairly quickly on the western part of the cwa this
morning so have canceled the Winter Weather Advisory for zone 34
and 39. Also downgraded the winter storm warning for zone 36 to a
Winter Weather Advisory. main concern will be extreme southern
Jefferson and western Douglas counties. Will leave the rest of the
highlights as is.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 311 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

An upper level ridge will build over the area on Sat in advance of
an upper level trough that will move across the area late Sat night
into Sun. Sat will be mainly dry except for a chc of showers in
the mtns by late aftn. Temperatures will be warmer on Sat across
the plains with readings in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

For Sat night into Sun the next upper level trough will move across
the area.  QG fields show some mid lvl ascent Sat night into Sun
morning with cross-sections having increasing moisture.  In addition
a cool fnt will move across the plains by Sun morning as well.
Overall should see a good chc of snow in the mtns Sat night into
Sun morning with a chc of rain showers across the plains as temps
will not be cold enough for snow. Highs on Sun will be in the 50s
over nern CO.

For Sun night into Mon an upper level ridge rebuilds over CO in
advance of another upper level trough which moves into the Great
Basin.  Moisture will increase in the mtns by aftn with some minor
mid lvl ascent so will keep in a chc of showers over the higher
terrain. Over nern CO it will be dry with highs in the upper 50s
to lower 60s.

For Tue both the ECMWF and GFS show an upper level low developing nr
the four corners which is fcst to move into ncntrl NM by Tue night.
Run to Run consistency has been awful the last few nights with this
system so have rather low confidence in current solutions from
either model.  Both models dvlp a sfc low over nrn NM on Tue and
then show a cool fnt moving across nern CO by late aftn or evening.
This leads to an increase in upslope flow flow along with abundant
moisture.  Naturally if this were to happen then there would be a
good chc of pcpn especially in the foothills and across the plains
Tue night.

On Wed the upper level low is fcst to move ese into wrn TX.  The
ECMWF keeps the low more over the TX pnhdl while the GFS is
further south. As a result th ECMWF keeps some pcpn across the
plains into Wed morning while the GFS shifts the pcpn into sern
CO. At this point really hard to say where this low will be so
will keep in 20% to 30% pops across the plains.

By Thu a flat upper level ridge will move into the area as another
upper level trough dvlps over the wrn US.  The GFS has this trough
over the Great Basin while the ECMWF is further west.  Both models
show some moisture affecting the mtns so will keep in low pops over
the higher terrain.  Over nern CO it will be dry with highs in the
lower to mid 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Scattered light convective showers have developed on the back side
of the low so have added some tempo groups at apa/den for
scattered rain showers through mid afternoon as temperatures are
now in the 40s.



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