Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 141702

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1002 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

Issued at 1002 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

Current forecast for today is on track. Skies have cleared this
morning across the entire CWA other than the southern third of
Lincoln County. North winds have begun across most of the eastern
Plains of Colorado with full sun and vertical mixing of the
northerly flow aloft. Expect north winds to contiue until early
evening with the loss of sunlight and decoupling. This will be the
coolest day of the work week with continued northerly flow across
the state. Winds will be relatively light across the Plains and
mountains today with near average temps for mid February. Once
the slow moving storm system finally moves further east into the
mid-Mississippi Valley this evening and allows the ridge to take
hold across Colorado, the warming trend will begin in earnest
starting tomorrow.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

Water vapor imagery showing strong high pressure ridging aloft
building over northern Rocky Mountain region with a moderate
northerly flow aloft over Colorado. There is some mid and high
level moisture moving into Eastern Montana and this will stream
southward into Eastern Colorado by afternoon. Otherwise any
substantial moisture will remain well south of our area.
Temperatures will be similar to Monday`s readings as strong
inversion remains near 700 mb. Below this level airmass becomes
well mixed so should still see some north to northeast winds again this
afternoon. Generally dry and cold tonight under mostly clear

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday
through Monday) Issued at 330 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

High amplitude ridge stretching from the Northern Rockies through
the Great Basin will bring a return of unseasonably warm
conditions to the forecast area Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday
is expected to be the warmest day as the thermal ridge shifts east
across Colorado. Highs by then should be able to reach 70F or
more over most of the plains, with mid 50s to mid 60s foothills,
and 40s to mid 50s most of the mountains/high valleys.

By Friday, the first in a series of weather disturbances will
reach the mountains as the western U.S. becomes quite active
again. However, this first wave will bring little more than a few
degrees of cooling along with a slight chance of snow showers to
the high country. Despite some cooling, temperatures will remain
above normal.  the storm system has now
moved into east central New Mexico.

On Saturday, a stronger storm system will be diving into the far
southwest U.S./Baja. With the brunt of this energy staying so far
to our south, there does not appear to be too much threat of
significant precipitation spreading into our forecast area this
weekend or even into early next week. The 00Z Canadian was an
outlier showing a farther north and stronger storm track, but at
this time we are leaning toward the favored EC/GFS solutions
taking this storm much farther south along the U.S/Mexico border.
There should still be an upper trough with weak Q-G support at
some point to bring a chance of showers down onto the plains. For
now will maintain consistency in the forecast with a chance of
showers in the lower elevations Suthe storm system has now
moved into east central New Mexico. nday/Sunday night. The
mountains may eventually see a period of accumulating orographic
snow showers behind this trough late Sunday into Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1002 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

VFR conditions to continue throughout the next 30 hours at least.
Hard pressed to find any clouds at all but some SCT high clouds
are possible later tonight. North winds 8-12 kts have kicked in
as expected this morning and should continue until 01Z or so. With
a weak surface pressure gradient in place tonight, drainage winds
should be the norm. For tomorrow, winds at the three TAF sites
should turn westerly, but remain light, staring mid morning.




SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Schlatter is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.