Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 221702
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1002 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH ONLY A FEW THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH
ONLY MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SNOW COVER ANALYSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

THE STORMS SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND TEXAS. DRIER AIR
HAS MOVED IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. APPEARS THE AIR WILL BE DRY
ENOUGH SO FOG WON`T FORM. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER COLORADO
TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGHS CLOUDS AT
TIMES...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL
SEE WINDS PICK UP IN THE FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...NOTHING STRONG THOUGH WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO
STAY UNDER 30 MPH. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW LOW LYING
AREAS TO BE COLD TONIGHT WHILE THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER LOCATIONS
STAY MILD DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST DROPS DOWN OVER NORTHERN COLORADO LATE ON
FRIDAY. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL...MODELS SHOW A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
SLIPPING SWRD ACRS NERN COLORADO FRIDAY MORNING. QG ASCENT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEAR WEAK WITH THESE TWO FEATURES AND THE SFC-600
MB LAYER EAST OF THE MTNS NEVER REALLY MOISTENS UP LACKING THE
BENEFIT OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW ACCORDING TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND X-
SECTIONS. SHOULD STILL SEE AMPLE CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY. WHEREAS
MODELS SHOW POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT QPF/SNOW ACCUM IN THE NORTHERN
MTNS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE S/W TROUGH PASSES BY.
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT BUT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE LOW POPS UP THERE DURING
THIS 12-HOUR PERIOD. THIS DISTURBANCE QUICKLY WEAKENS AS IT EXITS
THE AREA RESULTING IN AN END TO ANY PCPN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
ON FRIDAY ARE PROGGED TO WARM 2-3DEG C.

SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...
AND DRY AND WARMER DAY SATURDAY UNDER A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE. GOING
FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

NAM...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
AIR DISTURBANCE IN SWIFT NWLY FLOW ALOFT BRUSHING NERN COLORADO
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. COULD AGAIN SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE NRN MTNS WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN DRY WITH A
WARMING DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
SPEAK OF. TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE 60 DEG MARK IN BREEZY
AREAS ADJACENT TO THE FRONT RANGE...WITH MILD LOW/MID 50S FARTHER
OUT ON THE PLAINS WITH INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE PERIOD MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGING MONDAY
AND TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...AND
POSSIBLY WARMER THAN THAT NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.
HIGH COUNTRY SHOULD ALSO EXPERIENCE WARMER TEMPS WITH PREVAILING 30S
AND LOWER 40S. THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A MOIST WEATHER SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. GFS SWINGS THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
SCATTERED PCPN OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WHEREAS
THE EUROPEAN MODEL DELAYS ITS ARRIVAL UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS AND GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

ONLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 12000 FEET THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION MAY LOWER TO AROUND
9000 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS 06-13KTS WILL
PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A BRIEF
TIME THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH


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