000
FXUS64 KBRO 140833
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
333 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODELS DID A GOOD JOB
INITIALIZING THE MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AND WEAKEN AS
IT HEADS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS CURRENTLY
OVER THE UPPER VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO HAVING A HARD TIME
MOVING EASTWARD...PERHAPS DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER KBRO 00Z
SOUNDING. PWATS ARE AROUND 1.30 TO 1.60 CURRENTLY AND THIS WILL
CHANGE TODAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE LEVELS AND MOISTURE INCREASES. WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE...MODEST CAPE...VIRTUALLY NO CAP...AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON FIRST IN THE WEST THEN MOVING EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE DID COME IN A LITTLE DRIER SO REDUCED POPS BY
10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. DECREASING
CLOUDS AND SUN BY THE AFTERNOON WILL PUSH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THE LOWER 90S OUT WEST BUT MORE CLOUD OUT EAST WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE 80S....

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS GETS
BACK TO SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
HANGING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO FOR THE LAST WEEK FINALLY MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD OVER THE STATE AS THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTH REMAIN WELL NORTH OF SOUTH TEXAS AS THE MID LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER MEXICO BEGINS ITS GRADUAL PUSH NORTH.
FORECAST TO REMAIN RAINFREE WITH MOISTURE CHARTS KEEPING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AT OR BELOW 925MB AND THE TYPICAL LOW LEVEL INVERSION/CAP
STRENGTHENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE OVER SEASONAL NORMALS
WHICH CURRENTLY ARE APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY
TO MID 90S OUT WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO ARE BUMPED ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS AS THE DEW POINTS CLIMB WITH THE GULF WATERS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. THE MOST NOTICEABLE WEATHER ELEMENT
BESIDES THE HEAT WILL BE THE WIND. THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ONLY  SLIGHT
DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT THUS THE EXPECTED SUMMER LIKE SULTRY MID 70S
FOR LOWS.


&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME
ESTABLISHED TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5 FEET THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STEADY STATE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF TO INTERACT WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITION WILL BE THE PREVALENT CONDITIONS WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INDICATED TO STRENGTHEN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  82  73  83  74 /  30  40  30  10
BROWNSVILLE          83  72  83  72 /  30  40  30  10
HARLINGEN            83  72  86  72 /  30  40  30  10
MCALLEN              85  72  88  73 /  50  40  30  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      86  71  91  72 /  50  50  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  74  81  74 /  30  40  30  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM