Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 112338 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
538 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...Satellite and radar images as well as surface
observations indicate a few bands of light rain showers across
portions of the CWA early this evening. Ceilings were near 1000ft
at KHBV to near 7500ft at KHRL. Visibilities were near 3SM with
light rain and mist at KPIL to near 4SM with mist at KHBV. Expect
MVFR to near IFR conditions to develop late tonight into early Sun
morning as a weak surface trough across deep south Texas provides
low clouds with patchy fog across the area. In addition...isolated
to scattered showers will move across the CWA this evening
reducing ceilings/visibilities briefly.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017/
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): Surface observations show
that the surface trough currently is across the mid-valley this
afternoon, roughly right along US 281 from MFE to BKS. A few light
showers and drizzle continue to drift through the region, but
only dropping enough to knock down the dust. The trough will
dissipate later this evening, with southeast flow returning to the
region, drawing Gulf moisture back into the region. Will continue
with a chance for light rain and drizzle tonight, mainly before
midnight, but cloud cover will remain areawide. Ample moisture
Sunday along with a weak seabreeze boundary may provide enough low
level forcing to spark some showers during the afternoon
tomorrow, mainly across the coastal counties.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): Mid level 588 dam height
center over north central Mexico Monday will combine with high
pressure over the southern states to support relatively quiet
weather with light to moderate onshore flow and a few coastal
showers. High pressure will build over the southern states Monday
and Tuesday with a surge of Canadian source air and will filter
over the north Gulf before the main center over the Great Lakes
shifts east and stronger southeasterlies develop. Partly cloudy or
sunnier skies will develop by mid week with a warming trend to
above normal temperatures. A cold front will push into the area
Friday night and Saturday morning. The front will be at the tail
end of an extensive plains system/air mass and will produce a
slight cool down, but zonal flow aloft will not support strong

Now through Sunday night: Southeast flow has begun to relax
across the Gulf waters as the surface trough has moved inland and
is beginning to dissipate. Southeast winds will remain around 15
knots this evening before decreasing after midnight to around 10
knots. Lighter winds will allow seas to relax tomorrow, going from
around 4 feet tonight to 2 to 3 feet later Sunday afternoon.

Monday through Thursday night: Moderate northeast to east winds
Monday through Tuesday, shifting to southeast and south Tuesday
night through Thursday night. Moderate seas in small craft should
exercise caution territory Monday night through Tuesday night or
Wednesday, primarily offshore, possibly building to low end small
craft advisory criteria territory of 5 to 7 feet Monday night. A
few showers possible here and there. Broad high pressure over the
north Gulf early in the period will support northeast to east
winds. High pressure will shift east and sag south over the north
and east Gulf by mid week, helping winds reorient to southeast.
Long northeast to east fetch across the Gulf early in the week
will support bigger swells then.



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