Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 270544
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1244 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...GRADIENT HAS WEAKEN KEEPING SE FLOW AROUND 10 TO
12 KNTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF COAST IS PUSHING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WESTWARD
INTO THE CWA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK.
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH GIGS
AROUND 1800 TO 2000 FT. CIGS IMPROVE BY EARLY MORNING WITH
SKC ON ALL THREE TAFS SITES. SE WINDS PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS WITH DAYTIME MIXING AND WILL DECOUPLE
IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE STILL FAIRLY BREEZY WITH SOME 25 MPH GUSTS
STILL BEING RECORDED THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN AS
THE SUN SETS. AS WITH PREVIOUS MORNINGS A FEW AREAS COULD SEE A
FEW MORNING LOW CLOUDS THAT MAY PUT A FEW TERMINALS IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY BRIEFLY IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TOMORROW. 13/MH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HOT...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WEST GULF. LOOK FOR LOWS FROM 75 TO 80 TONIGHT...
AND ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST...SLIGHTLY LOWER AT THE
BEACHES...TO TRIPLE DIGITS WEST OF I-69C. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REACH THE CENTURY MARK BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE MORE HUMID COASTAL
COUNTIES...BUT WILL BE BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS. LOOK FOR 75 TO 80 DEGREES AGAIN
MON NIGHT. ALL THE WHILE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST...LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND MODERATE TO BREEZY DURING THE DAY.
AS STRONG HEATING DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE GRADIENT OVER THE COAST WILL TIGHTEN...WITH
STRONGER WINDS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE... BROWNSVILLE...BAYVIEW AND
HARLINGEN. CONVECTIVE OUT FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF
AND MOVING WEST OR SOUTH WEST OVER THE GULF LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
WEAKEN MOVING INTO THE RIDGE BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS
OR EVEN SHOWERS TRACKING INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...BY TUESDAY THE 500 MB
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER OK/AR/MO...WHILE AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES WEST ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...AM NOT
TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OVERALL
COLUMN MOISTURE IS STILL ONLY 50 TO 55 PERCENT AND SHOULD LIMIT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER HAVE LEFT SILENT 10 POPS IN FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE RIDGE SLIDES WESTWARD
THURSDAY AND BY FRIDAY IS LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SW. AS THE
RIDGES EDGES WEST THIS WILL OPEN UP A DOOR TO BETTER MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND WITH 1000
TO 500 MB RH BACK INTO THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A FEW MORE CLOUDS...A MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE AND MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATUREWISE THE HEAT
CONTINUES WITH MAXIMUMS PUSHING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HEAT LOW OVR NORTHEAST MEX IS
INTERACTING WITH GULF HIGH PRESS TO INCREASE WINDS OVER THE
LAGUNA. ISSUED EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WITH STRONGER WINDS AND SCEC
WORDING. OTHERWISE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS THROUGH MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS FURTHER WEST.
STRONGER WINDS ON TUESDAY MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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