Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 231730
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL HANG IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT
AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AT HRL AND MFE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND EXCLUDED FROM THIS TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVER DEEP S
TX. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN THROUGH THE DAY BUT SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS COULD HELP PRODUCE A FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS BUT EVERYTHING WILL REMAIN VFR LEVEL WITH
WINDS NO MORE THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA LIMITING ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN
DRIER AIR WITH A NE FLOW. THIS WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT THE MID LEVELS WILL
KEEP CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SUNSHINE WILL
REACH THE GROUND ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

TONIGHT...THE LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL
PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER RANCHLAND ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 281. AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID LOW
60S ACROSS THE CWA.

FRIDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA BUT SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN THE MID LEVELS AND COULD
DEVELOP FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...THE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SE BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD SATURDAY ACROSS TEXAS. A 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST TX TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. MOVES EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST TX WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TX. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...REMNANT LOW FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SHEAR
OUT INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST FRIDAY. ITS INFLUENCE ON WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND TOMORROW RESULTING IN THE
REDUCTION OF WINDS AND SEAS. THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH NO SCA OR SCEC EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM WITH SE FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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