Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 142351 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
551 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...VFR at the beginning of the TAF period could
transition to MVFR with some possible IFR conditions as stratus
and patchy fog potentially develop after midnight continuing
through sunrise. Clear and stable conditions to combine with light
southeast winds, high dewpoints and wet soil conditions producing
areas of MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR vsby. Highest probabilities
for the IFR conditions extend from KMFE north into the Northern
Ranchlands (KHBV/KBKS). Aviation conditions improve to VFR along
the coast and Lower Valley by mid morning Wednesday while it may
take a few hours longer for the mid Valley (KMFE)to break out of
the lower clouds. Winds remain light out of the Southeast


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017/

..Above Average Temperatures Continue...

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night):

Short Term (Now through Wednesday Night): 500 mb ridging will
remain in place over the U.S./Mexico border region throughout the
short term period. This will maintain a generally warm and stable
airmass in place over the RGV with decent amounts of sunshine
combining with a light and steady E-SE low level flow pattern.
Enough boundary layer moisture will persist throughout the short
term period to combine with light overnight surface winds to allow
for some potential for fog production for tonight and tomorrow
night. Patchy dense fog will be a threat in some localized areas.
But at this time do not expect enough dense fog coverage to
warrant an advisory.

The NAM/GFS and ECMWF short term temp guidance is in pretty good
agreement through tomorrow night and will go close to a model blend
of these three models.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday):

The stubborn ridge aloft will remain across northwestern Mexico to
start the long term period. Temperatures should continue to remain
above average through late week, however, a cold front will begin
pushing toward our region by Saturday. There is some uncertainty
in regards to timing with GFS being a bit faster than the ECMWF.
With the frontal passage expected there may be some showers
develop along the boundary or pre frontal trough, however, the
mid and upper levels look a bit dry. Maintained slight POPs for

Cooler air will filter into the region behind the front.
Northeasterly onshore flow will increase, which will likely cause
an increase in rip current potential. The cooler and drier air mass
will only slightly moderate by early week next week before
another frontal boundary and its parent trough move southward
toward deep south Texas.

Beyond for all the holiday travelers, GFS H5 5-wave analysis
shows a pretty decent signal for below average temperatures for
the eastern half of the country the week of Thanksgiving. Locally,
we should be somewhere in the middle, at least as of now. This
would suggest around average for the most part.


(Tonight through Wednesday Night):

Now through Wednesday Night: A fairly quiet surface pattern
will prevail over the lower TX marine areas through tomorrow night
as weak surface ridging remains in place over the Gulf of Mex. This
will maintain pretty benign Bay and Gulf seas for the moment. No SCA
conditions expected through Wed Night.

(Thursday through Monday Night):

Long term marine starts rather benign. The easterly fetch will
begin to weaken even more, which should help limit swells. The
break will not be long lived unfortunately as a strong cold
frontal boundary pushes southward toward our region on Saturday.
There is a little uncertainty with the timing of the front (late
Saturday/early Sunday), however, the impacts looks similar. Small
Craft Advisories will likely be needed this weekend assuming no
changes to the forecast are realized between now and then. Some
slight improvement as the new workweek begins and pressure
gradient across the Gulf of Mexico finally relaxes.




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