Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 261917
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
217 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ONLY REAL ADJUSTMENT FROM YESTERDAY
BEING STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS...A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 100S BY THE END OF THE DAY IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER VALLEY AND MAY HIT 100 IN PARTS OF THE LOWER VALLEY AS WELL.
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO LOWER 70S ARE KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME STEADY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND WORK TO
KEEP LOW TEMPS MILD...FROM ABOUT 77 TO 81 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
850/700MB MOISTURE AND THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LIMITED TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LOW CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
FORECAST IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TOMORROW.
ONLY SLIGHT INCREASES TO LAYER THICKNESS VALUES APPEAR IN SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE WITH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT VERY SIMILAR
LEVELS. FORECASTING MAX AND HOURLY TEMPS CLOSE TO BUT JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108 TO 111 WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE WEAKENED BY THESE
SOUTHEASTERLIES AND POOR MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ABOVE THE SURFACE
RAIN CHANCES ARE ESSENTIALLY ZERO.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AMID
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. A BRIEF AND SMALL SHOWER OVER THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS IS POSSIBLE BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE INHERITED LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST APPEARED REASONABLE AND NO ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE. BROAD 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EXTENDED OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WITH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WAXING AND WANING GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES
AND THE OPPRESSIVE HIGH PERSISTING...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
TO THIS CONTINUES TO BE ON SATURDAY...WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE CRP AND BRO CWFA/S. MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOMING POSSIBLE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
DAYTIME HIGHS...WILL PREVAIL AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAGUNA MADRE TODAY AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
STEADY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AMID
MODERATE SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL...AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN TOMORROW ON THE LAGUNA
MADRE.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE NEEDED FOR ANY OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE THURSDAY
DUE TO BREEZIER WINDS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  97  80  94 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          79  98  78  95 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            78 101  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              79 102  79 101 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 104  79 101 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  93  80  91 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...GIBBS-68
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
WX4PPT/MESO...BILLINGS-58



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