000
FXUS64 KBRO 161903
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
203 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE LACK OF
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VERY WARM TEMPS FRI AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID/UPPER RIDING WILL
PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO LIMITED LOW MOISTURE AND THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MOISTURE INCREASES BY LATE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES REACHING 1.80 INCHES TUESDAY EVENING.
WILL MAINTAIN/MENTION 10 POPS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG
THE BEACHES...LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...TO THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 OVER THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BUILD
CLOSER TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS A RESULT. WILL ISSUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AND ALLOW SCA
FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAIN
STATES WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS. WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN POSSIBLE EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  88  75  87 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          73  89  74  89 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            74  92  75  92 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              74  94  77  97 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      75 100  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  81  75  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

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