Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 010903
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
403 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RESULT
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL LIKELY SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE RIGHT ACROSS
TEXAS...WITH UPPER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT...ARRIVING SOMETIME DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
ONLY MODEL OUTLIER IS THE NAM...WHICH IS LAGGING BEHIND A FULL 18
TO 24 HOURS INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION. DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME EARLY
FRIDAY TO GET DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES WITH CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT TEMPS. SATURDAY MORNING THE DRY
AIR RETURNS FROM THE NW...LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND FUEL FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY. GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO KICK SOME OF THE
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE OUT...SO A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
SATURDAY RIGHT ALONG THE RIVER DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. TEMPS SATURDAY
WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND RANCHLANDS WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS
FORECAST. DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES AND SLOWLY INCREASING TEMPS
TO AROUND 90.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT WITH SOUTH WINDS
NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TO
NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A RESULT. MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TX THURS AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATER FRIDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP SQUALL
LINE. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KICK SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NE
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS CONTINUE SATURDAY...WITH SEAS SUSTAINED AT 4
TO 5 FEET. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH
SLOWLY IMPROVING SEAS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  89  81  90  79 /  10  10  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          90  79  91  78 /  10  10  20  30
HARLINGEN            92  79  93  77 /  10  10  20  30
MCALLEN              94  79  94  77 /  10  10  10  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      95  78  96  77 /  10  10  10  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  82  88  80 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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