Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 271029
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
429 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): A weak surface trough along the
Mexican coast is generating a few showers across portions of the Rio
Grande Valley this morning. This activity was moving to the
northwest around 15 mph. Some light fog will be possible across Deep
South Texas through sunrise, but the lack of a significant focus for
moisture will keep fog from getting thick.

Otherwise, a weak 500 mb ridge overhead will allow drier weather to
prevail across the region today. Warming and well above normal
temperatures are expected through the next 36 hours due to a
redeveloping and intensifying onshore flow. High temperatures today
will be in the low to mid 80s with a mix of sun and clouds. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the mid 60s across the
ranchlands to the lower 70s near the coast. Monday will be breezy and
unseasonably warm with near record high temperatures. A pre-frontal
trough will move across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
Monday afternoon. This will lead to clearing skies and allow drier
air to filter into the area.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday): The long term portion
of the forecast will be punctuated by the passage of two cold
fronts, the first during the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday morning,
and the second during the daylight hours of Saturday. Both cold
front passages will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, with the more robust rain chances occurring with
the Saturday cold front bolstered by closed 500 mb low pressure
over western Mexico. Due to the relatively rapid succession of
cold fronts, significant cloud cover, and opportunity for
rainfall, generally near normal daytime high and overnight low
temperatures are forecast through the period.
&&

.MARINE (Now through Monday): Buoy 42020 reported east-southeast
winds around 14 knots gusting to around 18 knots with seas slightly
over 4.9 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 03 CST/09 UTC. The
pressure gradient will strengthen today resulting in stronger winds
and slightly higher seas. Winds are expected to reach 15 to 20 knots
during the afternoon over the Gulf waters with sustained winds of 20
knots becoming more likely after sunset. Moderate winds will prevail
across the Laguna Madre today resulting in exercise caution
conditions. Small craft advisories will likely be needed tonight for
the Lower Texas Gulf waters. Strong south winds and building seas
will continue across the Gulf waters tonight and Monday. A weak
boundary will approach the coastal waters Monday afternoon which
will allow winds to slightly weaken.

Monday Night through Saturday: Adverse marine conditions are
anticipated along the Lower Texas Coast Monday night, Wednesday,
and Friday night through Saturday due to frontal passages and
tighter surface pressure gradients. A Small Craft Advisory is
likely for all or portions of the Lower Texas coastal waters
during these time periods, with a brief period of gale force wind
gusts during the morning hours of Wednesday. Outside of these
time frames, generally moderate winds and seas will prevail, with
Small Craft Exercise Caution possible occasionally.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  71  87  69 /  20  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          82  71  89  69 /  20  10   0   0
HARLINGEN            84  70  91  66 /  20  10  10   0
MCALLEN              84  70  92  65 /  20   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  67  93  61 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  74  83  71 /  20  10  10   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short term...Caceres-63
Long term...Tomaselli-66
WX4PPT/Meso...Brady-62



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