Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 160118 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
818 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER CAMERON COUNTY HAS DISSIPATED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO WITH SOME PATCHY CONV LINGERING
OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE RGV WITH A PWAT OF AROUND 2.6
INCHES. WEAK SURFACE TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL USHER THROUGH
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF CONV ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE
THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS WILL MAKE THE TAFS
PROBLEMATIC OVER THE LOWER RGV FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD. SINCE THE
CONV HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR WILL LIKELY GO CLOSE TO
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS
REDUCING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR
LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER AREAS OF CONVECTION.
WILL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC ON THE TAF WORDING CLOSE TO THE BRO AREA
WITH A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC TAF TRENDS FOR THE HRL AND MFE
AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...COMBINATION OF H5 INVERTED
TROUGH AND BROAD SFC LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ATMOSPHERE STILL PRIMED FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH MOST ATMOSPHERE SFC TO H3 /PW OF 2.38/...SO ANY RAIN FALL
THAT DOES OCCUR WILL DROP HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
PEAK OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS THE AXES OF
THE TROUGHS WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST...AND WILL BE AIDED BY A BIT OF
DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES
RISES TOMORROW...THOUGH...SO HEATING WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
INGREDIENT IN THE OVERALL PRECIP FORECAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 80S WHERE THERE
IS CLOUD COVER. AREAS OUT WEST MAY SEE SOME DAYTIME SUN EARLY BEFORE
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES IN FRO THE EAST. RESIDUAL ACTIVITY
DRIFTS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE STREAMER
ACTIVITY REPOPULATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND MAKES ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE ASHORE. STABLE LAND MASS REGIME WILL KEEP GULF SHOWERS FROM
REACHING BEYOND ABOUT 30 MILES INLAND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY WITH A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TX. A
500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WEST COAST THURSDAY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EXTENDING INTO NORTH TX WILL
PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TX SUNDAY AND INTO SOUTH TX
MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MIDLEVEL LOW WILL
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 4
FEET...GENERALLY WIND WAVE DRIVEN FROM  LOCAL SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  75  85  78 /  50  50  70  40
BROWNSVILLE          86  74  86  75 /  50  50  70  40
HARLINGEN            86  72  86  74 /  50  50  70  40
MCALLEN              87  75  87  75 /  40  30  70  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      90  73  86  74 /  30  20  60  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  76  85  78 /  50  50  70  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...67





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