Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 150901
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
401 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Deep south Texas will
continue to be influenced by 500 mb high pressure, initially over
northern Mexico, and then building east as the shortwave trough
over the Gulf of Mexico fills in. Rain- free conditions and near
to above normal temperatures will continue across the CWA today
through Saturday due to the rather dry atmosphere. Patchy fog will
be possible across the northern ranchlands around sunrise this
morning and again Saturday morning.


.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday):Mid to upper level
high pressure ridge will spreading over Texas and the Western
gulf through the long term while a subtle surge of tropical
moisture is still indicated by the latest model suite for Sunday
and Monday. The overall synoptic pattern remains unchanged with
model consistency and agreement looking reasonable. Moisture
levels are shown to deepen from the surface to between 700-500mb
with pwats exceeding 2 inches as Pacific and Southern Gulf
moisture surges north from the decaying circulation of Pacific
Tropical Cyclone Max (and maybe some from Norma). Overall rain
coverage is still uncertain with the mid/upper ridge in place
however this moisture is of tropical nature and with light e-ese
surface winds and weak to no cap seabreeze activity could be
enhance especially Sunday and Monday. Rain chances lower slightly
Tuesday and may tapper off below 20 percent Wed and Thu as the
upper ridge becomes centered over South Texas and moisture levels
drop off slightly as subsidence increases. Temperatures to remain
near to slightly above normal with model guidance in very good
agreement.

&&

.MARINE:(Now through Saturday): Favorable marine conditions expected
along the lower Texas coast today through Saturday. High pressure
across the northeast Gulf of Mexico will maintain light to moderate
southeast winds and low seas across the coastal waters through the
period.

Saturday night through Tuesday: Weak surface high pressure will be
centered over the north central Gulf through the weekend and early
next week. Lower pressure will extend across west Texas and the
Southern Plains maintaining a light to occasional moderate
southeast wind and low sea regime.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  93  76  93  78 /   0   0  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          93  75  94  77 /   0   0  10  20
HARLINGEN            97  74  95  76 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN             100  76  98  78 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     101  74  99  77 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  79  89  79 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63...short term
59...long term



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