Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBRO 232057
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
257 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IS
BEGINNING TO FILL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SHARP UPPER TROUGH HAS
PROBABLY REACHED ITS FARTHEST SOUTHWARD EXTENT WITH THE STRONGER
UPPER JET NOW ON ITS EASTWARD SIDE. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT WHICH IS THE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
ENHANCE THE SURFACE WINDS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN TACT ESPECIALLY FOR THE RGV
AS MODEL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A 40-45KT JET MAX AT THE 925-850MB
LAYER MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN 3 PM AND
MIDNIGHT. INCREASING CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LAYER AND DOWNSLOPING
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PARTIALLY MIX THE STRONGER WIND TO THE
SURFACE. THE UPPER TO LOWER RGV CAN EXPECT SUSTAIN WINDS TO STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST 9 PM WITH GUSTY PERIODS OVERNIGHT. FARTHER
NORTH WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT AS THE JET
MAX MOVES SOUTH AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
TONIGHT WINDS TO ABATE. FOR MARINE INTEREST WILL CONTINUE THE GALE
WARNINGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE SAME REASONING. SOME
HIGHER PLATFORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF ARE INDICATING GALE FORCE
GUSTS AND BUOY 20 IS GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS. DID HOWEVER CANCEL THE
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT AS THE NORTHWEST OFFSHORE FLOW IS AN
OPPOSING FLOW FOR TIDAL OVERWASH. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HIGHER WIND
PRODUCED WAVES SLOSHING OVER SOME AREAS OF THE EASTERN LAGUNA MADRE
SIDE WHICH MIGHT AFFECT A FEW BUSINESSES AT SOUTH PADRE ISLAND.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO COOL OFF AS DRY AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD.
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET MAX MENTIONED
ABOVE BUT BELIEVE SUFFICIENT DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF
THE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH. WITH NO CLOUDS TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES ONLY
THE WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING TO LOW. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY WITH FORECAST
TREND REMAINS TO USE A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS EVE...PLEASANT BUT COOL DAY EXPECTED WITH
STILL SOME WIND TO MENTION. 25-35 KNOTS JET REMAINS AT THE 925-850
LEVEL THROUGH 18Z. DOWNWARD MIXING WITH FULL SUNSHINE WILL PROVIDE
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. 850MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BETWEEN 1-4C WHICH WILL MAINTAIN AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. FACTOR IN THE WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL LIKE LOWER TO MID 50S. WINDS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE
RGV. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT
WITH SANTA SUITS LOOKING QUITE THE FASHION TO KEEP WARM. GUIDANCE
HAS DROPPED A FEW DEGREES WITH SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOWING UP
ACROSS THE RANCH LANDS OF JIM HOGG AND BROOKS COUNTIES. DROP THE
FORECAST FLOW JUST SHY OF FREEZING AND LOWERED THE RGV INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DURING THE LONG TERM A
VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SEVERAL UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV. THURSDAY...CHRISTMAS MORNING...AS THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSING EAST
THE SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS AND INFLUX OF WARMER TROPICAL AIR MASS
RETURNS. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO THE 70S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THURSDAY AND BEGINS TO LIFTS NE INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AS A RESULT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN. THE SE FLOW WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADVISORY OVER THE MARINE
ZONES AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. TEMPERATURES INLAND OVERNIGHT
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.


PART OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT NE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT
WITH RIDGE AMPLIFYING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC COAST...THE ADVANCING JET
MAX FROM THE WEST WILL DIG THIS TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND LIFTING NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DEVELOP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX WHICH
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERRUNNING PATTERN OVER THE CWA WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. LEAN
TOWARDS THE SLOWER MODEL 12Z ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING A MORE
CONSISTENT PATTERN WITH THIS NEXT FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DUE TO THIS SET UP THE CHANCE OF
RAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE CWA STARTING LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S BUT DROPPING INTO THE MID
40S UP NORTH AND 50S TOWARDS THE COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA DRY AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND IT AND LOWERS THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT INTO DEC
30 DROPPING TEMPERATURES BUT WITH LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST OBSERVATIONS
OFFSHORE INDICATE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGHER
PLATFORMS OVER THE NW GULF AT OR EXCEEDING GALE FORCE GUSTS. BUOY
20 AT 2 PM IS INDICATING NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 31 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AT 4 FEET. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO WORSEN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS. SEAS TO RESPOND QUICKLY EXCEEDING 10 FEET BY 9 PM.
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY TO REPLACE THE GALE WARNING THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS WESTERN GULF LATER
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING GRADUALLY.
MUCH IMPROVED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE DURING THE LONG TERM WITH RIDGE BUILDING AND SURFACE HIGH MOVING
EASTWARD RETURNING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF THURSDAY. THE SE FLOW
INCREASES AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THIS WILL BUILD SEAS AND INCREASE WINDS BACK TO SCA CRITERIA. BY LATE
INTO THE WEEKEND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TEXAS REGION AND
BRING A FRONT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
FROM LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. ABUNDANCE IN MOISTURE IS NOTED
WITH THIS FRONT WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND
LOWER VISIBILITIES THROUGH THAT PERIOD. A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DIG SOUTH AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE WEST. THIS WILL INCREASE
WINDS AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER THE GULF WATERS BY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT WILL BUILD SEAS AND INCREASE WINDS INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  47  63  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          47  63  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            44  64  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              47  66  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      45  64  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   51  63  45  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ248>251.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ252>257.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.