Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 191730
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1230 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THICK STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED WITH HEIGHTS AOA
2500-3500 FEET UNDERNEATH CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT SCT-BKN AOA 2500-3500 FEET THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. PREDOMINANT MVFR RETURNS AFTER
SUNSET WITH CIGS FALLING TO AOA 1500 FEET OVERNIGHT. MVFR WILL
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING AFT 16Z WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUDINESS AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST HAS FAILED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS OVER
THE BRO AND HRL AERODROMES...AND CLOUDINESS AROUND 7K FEET OVER
MFE. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS
BECOME BREEZY AND CLOUD DECKS RE-FORM AT LOWER BUT ACCEPTABLE
LEVELS. MORE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LOWERING DECKS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT...WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS WAFTING OVERHEAD FROM NEIGHBORING
MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATION STATIONS ARE PICKING UP PATCHY LIGHT FOG
WITHIN CAMERON AND HIDALGO COUNTY...HOWEVER.

TODAY...THE AXIS OF 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM DIRECTLY OVER THE BRO CWFA TO OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MOST RECENT KBRO UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED JUST
AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...HOWEVER THAT AMOUNT SHOULD
CLIMB TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY SUNSET. STILL...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF
THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST. WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S...SIMILAR TEMPERATURES...IF NOT JUST A
SMIDGE HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING OVER THE NEIGHBORING MEXICAN
STATES OF COAHUILA AND NUEVO LEON WILL INITIATE CONVECTION THERE...
AND SOME OF THIS MAY SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE BRO CWFA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD...BUT NEAR
NORMAL...OVERNIGHT LOWS.

SUNDAY...INHERITED ISOLATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...
AND THIS WAS RETAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WITH CONTINUED MID-
LEVEL TROUGHINESS PRESENT OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. ALTHOUGH...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LARGELY BE IN THE FORM ON STREAMER
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...NO MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING/SPEED/AND STRENGTH OF THE
NEXT 500 MB TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE ROCKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN OVER 1.50 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING GENERALLY INTACT OVERHEAD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE MID 90S ACROSS THE WEST BY LATE WEEK.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION FOG AT
THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN THAT WINDS WILL FULLY DECOUPLE AT
NIGHT.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 8 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
OVER 3.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 9 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND
EXTENDED OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRODUCING
GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE ON SUNDAY
DUE TO BREEZY WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS
WILL INTERACT WILL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXERCISE CAUTION AND/OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
WATERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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