Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 230530 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A CAVEAT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST GULF...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PWAT WILL
INCREASE TOWARD TWO INCHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THUS...
A MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ON THE TABLE FOR TODAY...THOUGH
GREATER AMOUNTS OF MID TO UPPER CLOUDS...EXPECTED DUE TO INCOMING
MOISTURE...MAY TEMPER HEATING AND ANY SEA BREEZE CONVECTION A BIT.
DIDN`T PLACE ANY OVERT MENTION IN THE TAFS JUST YET SINCE TIMING
AND STRENGTH WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. MAY SEE BKN SKIES NEAR
THE COAST FROM MID MORNING THROUGH AFTN...AND A SEA BREEZE LINE
WILL CONSIST MAINLY OF SHOWERS...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
3 KFT. LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FAIRLY MINIMAL TROPICAL MOISTURE
LEVELS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SOME BETTER MOISTURE VALUES
FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE WILL REMAIN POOLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE RGV OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEX. THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE WESTWARD AS T.S. MARIE CONTINUES MOVING WNW AWAY FROM
THE RGV. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE HINTS AT A LITTLE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONV AFTER 18Z SAT. HOWEVER
WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE CURRENT TAF SET AS OVERALL CONFIDENCE
OF THIS IS FAIRLY LOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGES AND GFS40 250MB HEIGHT/WIND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAY DRIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE 250MB LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA MOVES LITTLE IF ANY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS A RESULT.
SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TONIGHT/SAT MORNING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500 MB RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THIS SOLUTION BY
MID WEEK. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL IMPACT THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE ERODING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND RESTRENGTHENING ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MADE ONLY JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG
THE BEACHES...MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND UPPER 90S TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.4 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH SOUTH
WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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