Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 231711
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1211 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF IS INTERACTING
WITH DEEPENING LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MVFR TO VFR SKIES
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THICKER CLOUDS ARE CONCENTRATED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT
MFE. CIGS WILL DROP TO AROUND 2 KFT FOR ALL STATIONS TONIGHT...
MAYBE A FEW HUNDRED FEET LOWER AT MFE...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND MDT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. AS MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT...A DEEP STABLE LAYER WILL DEVELOP UNDERNEATH...
KEEPING CEILINGS LOWER...IN MVFR TERRITORY...FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MDT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST...
BRINGING MOISTURE IN UNDER THE STABLE LAYER...BUT SCATTERED SKIES
MAY OPEN UP BRIEFLY THURSDAY AFTER DAWN BEFORE A THICKER CLOUD
DECK FORMS. BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE TOO GREAT FOR ANY OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT FOG TO FORM NEAR THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...1500 FT DECK HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEY THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH HAVE RECENTLY
BEGUN TO SPREAD SOUTH AND MAY REACH KMFE BEFORE MID MORNING.
LOWEST CLOUD DECKS WILL BREAK AFTER SUNRISE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
QUICKLY MIXES TO THE SFC. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY DUE TO THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF
AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL REACH AROUND
15KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH A LOWER INVERSION BOTTLING UP THE SFC
MOISTURE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM....SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...GENERALLY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALOFT
KEEPS THINGS STABLE. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DECREASE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AS A LARGE TROUGH SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT TO THE REGION...AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE...MID LEVEL CAPPING INCREASES...AND SFC FOCUSING MECHANISMS
ARE ABSENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...REACHING
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM... /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/ THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA LOOKS TO TRANSITION FROM A PROGRESSIVE WEST
TO EAST TRACK TO A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP
SHOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. BY EARLY TO THE MID WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE
PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE SMALLER SCALE
DETAILS. A GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINS WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TRANSITIONING INTO BREEZY AND HOT WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND. WINDS TO TAPPER OFF MONDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AS A DRY LINE SETS UP TO THE WEST. THEN A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG TROUGH LOWERING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR A DAY OR TWO. NO RAIN IS SEEN AT
THIS TIME AS MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS WELL NORTH OF TEXAS. DISSIPATING
FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL HAVE NO AFFECT ON AREA WEATHER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UPPER TROUGH DIVES SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND TRACKS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. EXPECTING S-SW FLOW TO STRENGTHEN WHICH
IN TURN PUSHES TEMPERATURES UPWARD. BREEZY AFTERNOONS WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE PUSHING MAXIMUMS INTO THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOWER 100S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND UPPER 80S TO MID 90S MID AND
LOWER VALLEY.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BROAD UPPER TROUGH/LOW BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER
MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF
BUT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF 70-80 DECAMETERS DEEPER...HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CWA ARE VIRTUALLY THE SAME. GENERAL TRENDS
IS FOR 850-700MB SW-W FLOW TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY. A SURFACE DRY
LINE TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE COUNTIES WITH TEMPERATURES
TO INCREASE POSSIBLY TO THE HIGHEST READINGS OF THE SPRING. DEW
POINTS LOWER CONSIDERABLY WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
SURFACE WINDS HOWEVER LOOK LIGHT REDUCING ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
AS WILL HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESS LOWER ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS NORMAL
TUESDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN NEARLY FLAT THIS
MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAVE KEPT INFLUENTIAL SFC WINDS
NEARLY CALM. SFC LOW PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS...APPROACHING 15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY AFFECT SEAS...BUT
SHOULD STAY BELOW 4 FEET TOMORROW.

THURSDAY NIGHT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. STRONG UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SUNDAY WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASING NEXT WEEKEND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY AS MODELS INDICATE WINDS
STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILDING WITH THE TIGHTER GRADIENT. SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND NO FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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