Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 310859
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
359 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): The next 36 hours will be marked by
the continued active southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the H5 low
diving into north Mexico. Models continue to indicate a very moist
atmospheric profile into Wednesday, with minimal to no capping and
PW values in excess of 1.8 inches. Showers and thunderstorms will
start to develop later this morning, initially popping up on any
remaining outflow boundaries from yesterday, with enhancement
likely later in the day when the next midlevel impulse moves into
south Texas. Storm motion forecast to be 5 knots or less areawide,
so any thunderstorms that develop will be slow moving and outflow
dominated. Evening sounding showed CAPE above 2500 with minimal
capping. Enough instability is available, especially with passing
impulses, that some storms could get strong, with some hail
possible. Once daytime heating ends, and remaining storms
stabilize the atmosphere, a period of calm will arrive overnight
tonight, before the next round of showers develops sometime
tomorrow. Expect things to spark along the seabreeze and any
remnants outflows.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): A heavy rainfall
event is expected to develop across portions of the CWA Wednesday
night into Thursday and possibly continue into Friday...as the
500mb low across northern Mexico and west Texas Wednesday moves
into portions of west-central TX Thursday and meanders across
portions of central TX Friday. With the abundant low to mid level
moisture across south TX...showers and thunderstorms...some
producing heavy rainfall...will develop across portions of south
TX Wed. night through Friday as steep lapse rates prevail across
the area and a weak cold front across north TX Thursday moves into
south TX Friday and stalls providing a focus for low level
convergence. A flash flood watch will likely be needed for the CWA
Wed. night and Thursday and possibly through Friday. With the
upper level low drifting across south TX Saturday...rain chances
will continue to remain high through the rest of the week into the
weekend before some drier air filters into the area by the end of
the weekend into early next week. &&

.MARINE:
Now through Wednesday...Modest southeast flow will continue
through the next 36 hours as low pressure moves through the
central plains and high pressure remains across the gulf. this
will keep seas 3 to 4 feet through the period. Some shower and
thunderstorms activity is possible, mainly right along the coast.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Moderate to strong southeast
winds will prevail across the coastal waters Wed. night before the
pressure gradient begins to weaken Thursday as a weak cold front
moves into north Texas. Moderate southeast winds should prevail
Thursday and Friday before veering to the south and diminishing
Saturday as a broad area of low pressure develops across the lower
TX coast.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  78  90  78 /  20  20  20  40
BROWNSVILLE          89  78  90  78 /  20  20  20  40
HARLINGEN            90  77  91  76 /  30  20  30  50
MCALLEN              90  77  91  75 /  40  30  30  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      94  75  93  74 /  50  40  40  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   84  80  85  79 /  10  10  20  30
&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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