Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 040549
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SEA FOG HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME FORMING THIS EVENING. THE
00Z HRRR STILL FORECASTS LOW VISIBILITIES FOR KGLS AND POSSIBLY
KLBX THROUGH 15Z. ELSEWHERE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS FORECASTED BY THE
MODELS LOOK REASONABLE. ALSO LIKED HOW THE MODELS SCATTER OUT THE
CEILINGS TO VFR AT THE INLAND LOCATIONS FROM ABOUT KIAH TO THE
COAST BY MIDDAY. ACTUALLY...THE 00Z NAM12 HUMIDITY FIELDS AND THE
00Z NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW KGLS AND KLBX SCATTERING
OUT TO VFR AT BEST BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE KCLL AND KUTS AREAS BY 00Z. CEILINGS AT BOTH LOCATIONS MAY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME LIFTING ABOVE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND
FELT THAT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEST AT BOTH SITES
BETWEEN 21Z TO AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE AT 00Z. CHANCES FOR THUNDER
WERE LESS AT KCXO AND THE HOUSTON METRO AIRPORTS. THE FRONT SHOULD
WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO BY MID EVENING AND OFF THE
COAST AROUND 06Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT SHREVEPORT TO
HALLETSVILLE TO LAREDO. SFC DEW PTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUD COVER AND SOME MIXING FROM MODEST SFC
WINDS SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SO
BUMPED MINS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. KHGX VWP SHOWS A SOUTH FLOW
NEAR 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET AND SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE
SO FEEL LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG. GALVESTON HAD
DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THAT SAID...POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR POCKETS
OF DENSE SEA FOG TO AFFECT KGLS AS DEW PTS NEAR 70 FLOW OVER SHELF
WATERS IN THE LOWER 50S. NOT SURE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
REQUIRED ALONG THE COAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND DECIDE A BIT
LATER ON WHETHER AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED. RAIN CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE
TONIGHT AS SE TX LIES A LITTLE TOO CLOSE TO A 300 MB RIDGE WITH
THE BEST JET DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF SE TX. BEST
850-700 MB MOISTURE IS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN AS THE
UPPER JET NEARS AND MSTR LEVELS BEGIN TO DEEPEN. NEW ZONES OUT BY
915 PM. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
THE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES AT 2330Z WILL LOWER FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR AND LIFR THIS
EVENING. KGLS HAD SEA FOG DEVELOPING AND SHOULD SEE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY THAN 24 HOURS AGO SINCE THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS WELL INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS FACT
MAY ALONG HELP KEEP SEA FOG FROM BEING PREDOMINATE OVER THE INLAND
AREAS. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION WILL KEEP THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT SUNRISE SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO
IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY EVENING.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  74  32  37  27 /  20  80  60  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  76  37  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  66  41  42  35 /  20  30  50  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40



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