Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 301717
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1217 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUIET 18-24 HOURS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED AFTN TSTM CELLS POP UP...SO WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. BUT CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
INDIVIDUAL TAFS ATTM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT
WITH JUST SOME BRIEF & PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VIS LATE. TSTM CHANCES
INCREASE THURS AFTN AS COOL FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO SE TX. THIS
BOUNDARY ALONG W/ SEABREEZE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME LOCALIZED STRONG CELLS.  47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER SE TX AT MID MORNING CONSISTED
OF A WEAK WARM FRONT WHICH WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR CROCKETT TO
GALVESTON. THERE WAS WEAK RIDGING AT BOTH 850 AND 700 MB...WHILE
AT 500 MB A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
PAN HANDLE. BOTH THE 12Z RAOBS AND THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WERE NOT AS UNSTABLE AS YESTERDAY. THE KCRP SOUNDING DID HAVE A
BIT OF A LOW-LEVEL CAP WHICH SHOULD BREAK WITH A TEMPERATURE
AROUND 90. THE KLCH SOUNDING HAD A BETTER CAP IN PLACE JUST ABOVE
850 MB. OTHERWISE...PW/S WERE AROUND 1.8 AND THE CAPE RANGED FROM
ABOUT 1200 TO 2000. THERE WAS ALSO AN INVERTED V PROFILE FROM
ABOUT 850 MB TO THE SURFACE.

EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE A SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHWARD TODAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP DESTABILIZE MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...THE SEABREEZE AND THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME INITIAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE MAIN THREAT.

CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO REVISE THE POPS TO 20 PERCENT. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      95  75  94  72  91 /  20  10  30  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  75  94  76  90 /  20  10  20  40  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  80  89  80  88 /  20  10  10  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$


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