Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KHGX 261544
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1044 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED TWO BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION... WITH THE FIRST LOCATED NEAR GALVESTON ESE TOWARDS
PLATFORM KGHB /ABOUT 160 MILES SE OF CAMERON...LA/. THE SECOND WAS
LOCATED STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA
COAST. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FIRST BOUNDARY
CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... WITH AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.

THE SECOND BOUNDARY... PER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
APPEARS TO BE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE
45. GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE PRESENT /LAKE CHARLES REPORTING 2.3
INCH PWAT AND GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWING THIS MORE MOIST AIRMASS
PUSHING SOUTHWEST/ AND MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 95 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON... THIS SOLUTION
SEEMS REASONABLE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR WEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. ORGANIZED STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED GIVEN LOW SHEAR BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER... CREATING AN ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT MAINLY
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.

HEAT WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
TOP OUT IN THE 101 TO 107 RANGE AND HAVE REISSUED AREA-WIDE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT COVERING THIS HAZARD. CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGHER PW AIR MOVING WWD
FROM LOUISIANA AND OFFSHORE TOWARD SE TX. THIS AREA HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED W/ SOME CONVECTION WELL TO OUR EAST THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...MAKING IT INTO CNTL LA YESTERDAY. GIVEN THAT WE HAD A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS YDAY...SUSPECT WE COULD SEE SOME MORE TODAY ESP IN
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE. WILL
STILL NEED TO OVERCOME QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE BUT FELT LIKE
ADDING MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FCST IS PROBABLY WARRANTED. HRRR &
TX TECH WRF BOTH SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...CONTINUED HOT & MUGGY THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES AS UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEAKENS/FLATTENS
OVER THE UPPER TX COAST AS ITS CENTER MIGRATES A BIT FURTHER NE
INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. MAY SEE A PASSING IMPULSE OR TWO MOVE
OVERHEAD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THAT MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW CELLS
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
ISOLATED THRU THURS.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FRI-SUN AS THE RIDGE REPOSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN STATES...DEEP GULF MOISTURE MOVES BACK
IN...AND POSSIBLY A DIFFUSE FRONT AND/OR SEABREEZE PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR HOPEFULLY BETTER AREAL PRECIP CHANCES THAN WE`VE SEEN IN
A WHILE. ADVERTISED POPS IN OUR FCST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD COULD BE
TOO LOW...BUT PREFER TO NUDGE THEM UP W/ TIME AS CONFIDENCE
IMPROVES - VERSUS THE OPPOSITE. 47

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SPEEDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. NO CAUTION FLAGS
ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO SE
TX LATE IN THE WEEK (THURS/FRI) BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS PER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER ITS PROXIMITY WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE A MORE W/SWLY FLOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. 41


AVIATION...
STILL NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE GENERAL FCSTS OF VFR FOR THE DAYTIME
HRS. VERY ISO PCPN ALONG THE SEABREEZE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTN...BUT
THE BETTER CHCS NOT ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID/LATE WEEK WITH THE APPRO-
ACH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HRS (09-12Z) WILL ALSO PERSIST. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  77  98  76  97 /  10  10  10   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              99  78  98  77  98 /  20  20  20   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            93  82  92  82  92 /  20  10  20   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.