Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 222102

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
402 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Once subsequent day lower level morning inversions lift at around
15-16Z...the overall state of the regional atmosphere will one of
unconditional instability. Mid to upper level ridging will still
dominate the Southern Plains synoptic pattern through mid-week
but Texas will be on the weaker southern edge of its subsidence.
Although the subtropical jet will gradually lift north through the
first half of the work week...the highway for weak westerly disturbances
will still be open over eastern Texas. Moisture levels will still
remain at or above the 75 quartile (greater than 1.5 inch PWS) and
daily surface heating into the early afternoon middle 80s should
be enough to produce the lift...or ample buoyancy...needed to
build cumulus. Relatively lower short term precipitation chances
are based upon the larger scale influence of the upper ridge and
the surface reflection of the southeastern U.S centered high.
There are slight chances for air mass/ordinary type slow-moving
high localized rainfall rate clusters of showers with embedded
storms through Wednesday. In the event that a shortwave disturbance
does not pass by....diurnal activity will develop and evolve in
the vicinity of the local breezes. A plausible daily scenario
would be of early day nearshore or coastal county showers
developing per better sea/land speed convergence within a more
unstable and moist environment. This activity could produce
strong enough inland moving outflow boundaries that would move
into a heated and moist interior air mass that would then increase
the chance of higher convective afternoon coverage that would
persist through the early evening hours. Skies will generally be
of mid to high level overcast with occasional partly cloudy
cumulus...possible morning fog...with a persistent southeast wind.
These conditions will regulate morning temperatures to the muggy
upper 60s/low 70s inland (coastal mid 70s)...afternoon`s topping
out in the average middle to upper 80s (coastal low 80s) with any
early afternoon showers/storms keeping maximum temperatures in
check...closer to 80F. Higher 1000-500mb thickness values...along
with near 20C 850mb temperatures...has Wednesday scheduled to be
the warmest day of the week where many inland locations will reach
the lower 90s.

The Thursday weather pattern transitions to more wet. A broad long
wave trough advances east from the Rockies...placing Texas under more
diffulent flow while passing a series of more moderate disturbances
across eastern Texas. Thus...more moderate (Thursday) to likely
(Friday) POPS as the upper trough lifts northeast up into the
middle Mississippi River Valley. Overall late period conditions
may feel very familiar (yesterday?). Overcast...warm but not
overly hot nor humid (more rain cooled air?)...with periods of
clustered areas of rain and storms. 31


East/southeast winds will continue and gradually strengthen as low
pressure over the western high plains deepens. A moderate onshore
wind will prevail through much of the upcoming week. A long fetch of
onshore winds will produce elevated seas next week with SCEC/SCA
conditions possible. Tides will become slightly elevated early this
week and remain elevated through Friday. An unstable air mass remains
over the area which will result in periodic scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the marine area. 43


College Station (CLL)      70  86  72  88  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              70  86  73  88  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)            76  83  76  84  78 /  10  20  10  10  10




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