Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 141145
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
645 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

A more active pattern gets underway today, beginning a multi-day
period that will have the potential for some strong thunderstorms
as well as locally heavy rainfall (see Long Term section). A
developing surface low currently situated roughly over Central OK
will continue to push to the northeast today as it deepens
slightly. A cold front associated with this system will
consequently begin to push into the Southern Plains, though global
models continue to show a relatively slow progression of this
feature over the next 36-48 hours. Nonetheless, the consequences
of this pattern shift to the local synoptic pattern will initially
be felt via further increases to the surface wind today. By this
afternoon, a strengthening surface pressure gradient and building
LLJ will provide sustained winds near 20 mph with some higher
gusts at times. Persistent cloud cover will work to inhibit
heating, but with 850mb temperatures reaching 17-18 degC this
afternoon as a response to the building LLJ we should still see
widespread highs in the mid 80s for most inland areas. Areas along
the coast should see highs in the upper 70s yet again.

A weak midlevel disturbance will traverse the area today,
potentially leading to the development of some scattered showers/and
storms during the afternoon and evening hours. However, with
forecast soundings continuing to indicate the presence of a fairly
robust capping inversion which should prevent any widespread
convection for the time being and instead concentrate the bulk of
our activity to our north. Nonetheless, a stronger isolated storm
can`t totally be ruled out across the northern zones and as a result
the SPC continues to maintain a Marginal Risk of severe weather for
Houston/Madison/Brazos/Burleson Counties. Overnight lows, elevated
by cloud cover remaining in place, will continue to sit near 70.

As the surface front pushes further southward on Friday and stalls
just to our north, rainfall chances will increase area-wide. With
widespread moisture availability, the presence of the boundary
itself, the passage of a series of weak shortwaves aloft, and
sufficient erosion of the low-level capping inversion noted
previously, we should see fairly widespread shower and storm
development beginning on Friday morning. The stalled boundary setup
does lend itself favorable to the potential for some locally heavy
rain, particularly with the possible development of training storms.
As such, WPC has maintained a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for
locations along and north of the I-10 corridor. HiRes models show
the potential for around 1-2 in of new rainfall, with higher totals
concentrated further from the coast and some locally higher totals
possible. The passage of another weak shortwave later in the day on
Friday will have the potential to trigger some stronger storms to
our west in an unstable environment (SB CAPE of ~2500 J/kg), pushing
towards the area on Friday evening. Threats associated with any
stronger storms continue to mainly be focused on large hail and
gusty winds. Given both the severe weather and excessive rainfall
threats, it will be important to remain up to date with the forecast
on Friday and have several ways to receive weather warnings if
necessary.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Confidence that Southeast Texas will continue under a wet and
stormy weather pattern through the end of the weekend remains
high, with the highest chance for showers and thunderstorms
expected to take place Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.

We anticipate a little bit of a respite from the rain Friday
night into Saturday morning, with isolated activity possibly
occuring from time to time. As seen on the NAM forecast
soundings, capping could be present in the morning, and may also
be deter shower development. During the afternoon hours, however,
another upper level disturbance will move overhead along with mid
level vort maxes and with the cold front meandering over Southeast
Texas and sufficient low level moisture, it will not take much
for showers and thunderstorms to fire up again once the cap erodes
(if any). PWs are still expected to range between 1.5 to 1.8
inches for our area during the afternoon to evening hours, and
with how the environment is to set up, some folks could see
periods of heavy rainfall along. This could result in minor flood
issues along roadways, low lying areas, and locations with poor
drainage. Strong gusty winds could also occur with some of the
stronger storms.

Chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue fairly high
through Sunday morning as additional disturbances and vort maxes
continue pass through while the front remains over the central or
southern portions of Southeast Texas. A surface low may develop
near the southern portions of Texas and move into Southeast Texas
late Saturday night or Sunday morning, which could also support
fairly high PoPs over our region during that timeframe. Periods of
locally heavy rainfall would still be possible. Ponding of water
along roadways could be difficult to see at night. The being
said, the WPC continues a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for
Excessive Rainfall for the northeast portions of Southeast Texas
and a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for the rest of the region from
Saturday morning to Sunday morning.

Rain will gradually decrease once the front begins to move
further south and into the Gulf of Mexico, hopefully sometime
Sunday afternoon. Cooler and drier air will begin to move in
Sunday night into Monday and tranquil conditions can be expected
Monday into Tuesday as high pressure builds over Texas. We will
also have temperatures cooling back down with highs ranging
between the upper 60s to low 70s on Monday and the low to mid 60s
on Tuesday.

Warm moist air from the Gulf begins to move back in on Wednesday
and will start warming our days again. Another coastal low could
develop over the northwestern Gulf waters and may bring back rain
chances.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

IFR conditions, along with some patchy fog, will continue over the
next few hours before cigs lift to VFR levels by late morning.
Elevated south winds will continue into the evening, with
sustained winds of around 15 knots and gusts of up to 25 knots at
times. Winds relax slightly overnight, as a few isolated showers
begin to develop ahead of an approaching cold front. This will be
accompanied by a redevelopment of IFR cigs. By tomorrow afternoon,
rainfall will become widespread with some stronger storms
possible.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 3 to 5 feet are
expected through Saturday and may flirt with caution levels at
times. Areas of patchy sea fog will remain possible for the bays
and Gulf waters today and possibly Friday.

Chance for showers and storms will return Friday and are expected
to continue through the end of the weekend as a cold front moves
across Southeast Texas and stalls inland. This will result in
winds becoming more easterly by early Saturday. At this time, the
highest chances for storms will occur on late Saturday night into
Sunday as the front begins to push into the coastal waters. Once
the front exist our offshore waters, winds will become
northeasterly and strengthen late Sunday into Monday. Seas will
build to 5 to 7 feet. Advisories may be required. Conditions
improve Tuesday.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  85  69  77  61 /  20  60  60  40
Houston (IAH)  85  71  81  66 /  10  40  50  40
Galveston (GLS)  76  67  73  65 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335-
     350-355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...24


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