Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 292314
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
614 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME DECENT CIRRUS OVERNIGHT COMING IN FROM C
TX AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE RED RIVER. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A LITTLE SO MAY BE SOME SCT STRATOCU
IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL EXPECT VFR CIGS WITH LONE
EXCEPTION BEING KCXO WHICH COULD SEE A HOUR OR TWO OF RESTRICTED
VSBY AT MVFR LEVELS.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY PLEASANT SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH 3 PM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
GENERALLY AROUND OR UNDER 50 PERCENT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD HAVING DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AHEAD OF A WEAK SEA BREEZE WITH CIRRUS
CREEPING INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHWARD
MOVING WEST TEXAS SHORTWAVE. FARTHER EAST... THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MENTIONED IN THE AFD FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE HAD MOVED LITTLE AND
STRETCHED ROUGHLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TEXAS
PER AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN FOR THE REGION OCCURRED TODAY WITH GPS MET
PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES REMAINING AROUND ONE INCH BETWEEN
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
DIG FARTHER SOUTH INTO TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEST TEXAS
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATER TONIGHT... BUT OUR
PRESENTLY DRY AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. FOR
TONIGHT... DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY ALLOW A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE LOW
70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST.

12Z GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY... AND
THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH RETURNING MOISTURE WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPER
GULF MOISTURE WELL REMOVED FROM THE TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON...
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM TAMPICO MEXICO
NORTHEAST TOWARDS GULF SHORES ALABAMA. GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS HIGHER PWAT AIR BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A MORE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY/
SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. STARTING 20 POPS
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING... WITH RAIN CHANCES
SPREADING INLAND /20 TO 40 POPS/ THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH/EAST OF THE
59 CORRIDOR WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND... UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ALONG THE COAST/ ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AND ATTEMPTS TO SHUNT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE
REGION AND OVER LOUISIANA. MAINTAINING LOW END POPS FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AS THIS HAPPENS HOWEVER WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON HOW FAR EAST THIS FEATURE WILL ACTUALLY
MOVE.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OFF TO OUR EAST...ONSHORE WINDS
(5 TO 10 KNOTS MOST OF THE TIME...10 TO 15 KNOTS OCCASIONALLY)
AND LOW SEAS (GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET) WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  94  73  95  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  93  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  90  79  89  79 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



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