Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 180014
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
614 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CENTER AROUND
DETERIORATING CIGS TONIGHT AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG.

REGIONAL RADAR AS OF 6 PM SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF SEVERAL TERMINALS...HAVING DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE...GENERALLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS WERE IN PLACE WITH THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. A WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED /AS OF 5 PM/
STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EASTWARD INTO THE GULF.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW...EXPECT LIGHT
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTLY WINDS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 7
KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRESENTLY...VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH IFR TO LOW-END MVFR IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS
BY 06-09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER 18Z TOMORROW... BUT
ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE TO THE TAFS BASED ON THE WHERE
THE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY ENDS UP. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION BY 09Z AND HANG UP AROUND THE
HOUSTON TERMINALS /ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR/ INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY DROPPING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESUMED AND DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE RISE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A TEMP DROP...IF AT ALL...OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVING INTO PLAINS
WILL SKIRT ACROSS N ZONES LATER THIS AFTN AND EVNG. MOISTURE/PRECIP
ORIENTATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WSW-ENE ORIENTED OVERNIGHT AS IT
SAGS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

CONTINUED SCT PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS SRN 1/4 TO 1/2 PART OF THE
REGION ON THURS WITH REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH WARM
FRONT MEANDERING ABOUT. GENERALLY LIGHT NUISANCE AMOUNTS...BUT
ENOUGH FOR A GLOOMY DAY THAT ARE FAIRLY TYPICAL ONCE THE WARM
SECTOR PUSHES INLAND. HIGHS ON THURS WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
THE BOUNDARY POSITIONING. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF SEA FOG CLOSER TO
COAST THRU FRI.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SYSTEM CURRENTLY DIGGING DOWN WEST COAST.
IT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND INTO TX THURS NIGHT AND FRI.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...PW`S AROUND 1.6"...AND SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG WARM FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID INCREASE IN
PRECIP COVERAGE LATE THURS NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO FRI AFTN UNTIL
THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST ALER IN THE DAY. MOST
OF MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" NORTH OF
I-10...AND LESS THAN 1" SOUTH OF THERE. WOULDN`T ANTICIPATE VERY
MANY ISSUES W/ THAT SHOULD IT VERIFY. INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO
SVR THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT ALWAYS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON
CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.

COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST FRI EVNG IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM....BRINGING A COOL DRY WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESUME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR
DEEPENING TROF ACROSS NATIONS MID SECTION. LOOKING FOR ANOTHER
FRONT TO PUSH THRU ON TUE...PROBABLY A MOSTLY DRY FROPA WITH
LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN. COOL AND DRY AGAIN THRU XMAS
EVE. PRELIMINARY GUESS FOR XMAS IS FOR WARMER CONDITIONS...
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
DRIZZLE. STILL A LONG WAYS OFF WX-WISE THOUGH. 47

MARINE...
WINDS TONIGHT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO REACH SCEC CRITERIA. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ON THURSDAY AND BRING CHANCES FOR SEA FOG
FORMATION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  68  56  58  45 /  60  20  80  80  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  74  60  67  47 /  40  50  70  80  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  71  63  68  51 /  30  50  50  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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