Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 061334
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
734 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST FOR STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND INTO THE
GULF...LOOK FOR CLEARING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AVIATION...
FAST MOVING LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW
MOVING ACROSS SE TX. STORMS HAVE ALREADY CLEARED CLL...UTS AND CXO
AND WILL CLEAR REMAINDER OF TAF SITES OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE
SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL. IAH
REPORTED GUST TO 34 KNOTS. ONCE THIS LINES MOVES EAST...COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW A FEW HOURS LATER...WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT. POSSIBLE COULD
SEE PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT IN SHELTERED AREAS GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. HAVE GONE WITH
A TEMPO AT LBX FOR LOWERED VSBY DUE TO FOG...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AREA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM CROCKETT TO EAST OF COLLEGE STATION
AND DOWN TO BRENHAM. SMALL PEA SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED ON MPING
WITH THE STORMS OVER COLLEGE STATION. THIS INDICATES THAT STEEP
LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE AND STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY ELEVATED
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF ANY LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NE TEXAS MOVING TOWARDS THE
ARKLATEX WITH TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING THROUGH THE AREA INTO C TX.
LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LOW SHOULD BE THE
MAIN DRIVERS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED TO THIS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH SMALL HAIL AND LIGHTNING AS THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. FORECAST WILL HOLD WITH SOME HIGHER POPS AS CONVECTION
MOVES THROUGH BUT LOOK FOR CLEARING CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WITH GENERAL NW TO N WINDS. CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION AS
THE UPPER LOW PASSES SHOULD HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S PERHAPS LOW
60S TODAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING ALSO SHOWS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL GREATLY
AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO A STRONG CLOSE LOW
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN...FORECAST WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS AND MIN TEMPS FOR
MONDAY/TUESDAY A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN GFS/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN DEWPOINTS.
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP IN WHICH LOW RH AND MODERATE/STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH
DRY FUELS COULD SUPPORT RAPID FIRE GROWTH. RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA BUT QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT THE AIR WILL BE DRIER THAN WHAT MODELS DEPICT
ESPECIALLY WITH STRONGER WINDS AND MIXING.

ONLY OTHER FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE A STRONG WARM UP WITH TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S COULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WED/THUR AS
WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE MORE SW TO NW. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH 850MB WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
HIGHER TEMPERATURES MID WEEK.

39

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL LIKELY APPROACH OR
EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY FROM FREEPORT TO
MATAGORDA...20 TO 60 NM OUT. HAVE GONE WITH SCA THERE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...EXERCISE CAUTION FOR OTHER COASTAL ZONES AND
MATAGORDA BAY. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM THIS MORN WITH
THE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. HAVE SEEN SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY OVER LAND DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS
ONLY IN THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING WIND SPEEDS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AGAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.

46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  35  63  37  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  38  64  42  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  45  60  47  59 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST
     THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39


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