Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 310107
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
807 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014


.AVIATION...
STORMS WANING QUICKLY WITH ONE W OF CXO AND A LARGE AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA WELL OFFSHORE 60-100NM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
TROPICAL TAP FROM DEEP IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE NW GULF
AND UP INTO LOUISIANA. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE SHOULD LIFT NORTH
TOWARD MORNING AND TRAVERSE SETX BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE UPPED THE COVERAGE IN THE AREA TAFS WITH TEMPO
CONDITIONS AND VCSH/VCTS STARTING AROUND 10Z NEAR THE COAST AND
SPREADING INLAND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT MOST
SITES FROM CXO SOUTHWARD WILL EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY TSRA. LATE AFTERNOON IS MORE DIFFICULT AS MOISTURE LEVELS
DECREASE AND INSTABILITY BECOMES A QUESTION DUE TO GETTING WORKED
OVER IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL STILL CARRY
VCSH/VCTS THOUGH FOR LATE AFTERNOON WELL INLAND.

SOME PATCHY FOG AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z MAINLY FOR
CXO/LBX.

45

45 &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA
AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90 DEGREES. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH AROUND 4 PM AND THEN BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE BULK OF THE EVENING SHOULD
BE DRY. PW VALUES SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z AND A
COMBINATION OF SPEED CONVERGENCE...AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER
SOUTH TEXAS AND A STRONG VORT LOBE WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AND PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. THE
SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL WANE SUN MORNING AND THE VORT LOBE MOVES
EAST SO AM EXPECTING THE PRECIP TO END AROUND 15Z. THAT SAID...HEATING
DURING THE AFTN WILL STILL ALLOW SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP
IN THE AFTN. PW VALUES DROP A BIT ON MONDAY BUT STILL PEAK NEAR
2.00 INCHES IN THE AFTN WHICH STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA.

ON TUESDAY...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL APPROACH THE MEXICAN COAST AND THE
WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO TEXAS. FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW PW VALUES ABOVE 2.00 INCHES WITH K INDEX VALUES IN THE MID
30S. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER SO TEMPS WILL ONLY
NEED TO REACH THE MID 80S FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THE
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY FROM TEXAS...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS TO STILL ALLOW SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP
ON WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER AND
VALUES NEAR 90 DEGREES WILL BE REQUIRED FOR CONVECTION TO
INITIATE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BUT PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 1.9 INCHES SO ISOLATED SHRA STILL LOOK POSSIBLE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 43

MARINE...
THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL LINGER ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...OR AS LONG AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. FREQUENT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM PASSAGE. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE CHURNED UP IN AND AROUND VICINITY MARITIME STORMS. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 15 KNOTS WITH LOWER SEAS THROUGH
MONDAY. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT...OR POSSIBLY BAY OF CAMPECHE
LOWERING PRESSURES DUE TO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...MAY STRENGTHEN
WINDS/SEAS BACK TO SCEC CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  94  77  95  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  91  78  94  77 /  50  50  10  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  82  90  82 /  60  60  10  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45


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