Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 220950
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
450 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Widely scattered showers (with isolated thunderstorms) will con-
tinue to develop over the coastal waters this morning (with some
of this activity holding together enough to affect coastal zones
through at least mid morning). The trends this morning appear to
reaffirm the progs of the much deeper moisture just offshore and
its subsequent move onshore these next few days as SE winds dev-
elop/strengthen. All of this occurring as the upper ridge begins
to weaken/move off to the east and the next upper trof begins to
deepen and amplify as it moves off the Rockies. Models still not
in super good agreement with all the different players coming up
but the overall trends have been with a more progressive pattern
over the weekend which does result in the passage of a real-life
cold front into SE TX by Mon. ECMWF which has been the more con-
sistent one did appear to reverse that trend with the 00z run as
the GFS came up with a more erratic/aggressive solution. With no
real consensus with models after Mon...will likely keep a slight
lean on grids toward the ECMWF as this latest GFS run seems very
fantastic. (i.e. The development of a surface low in the western
Gulf along the stalled frontal boundary next week is not the fav-
ored solution at this time tbh.)

Elevated POPs the next couple of days should be mainly scattered
in nature...with most of the activity likely along/near the sea-
breeze/other meso boundaries. However we will have to keep close
tabs with precip Sun night into Mon. Very high PWs (2-2.3") will
be pooling along/ahead of the cold front as it moves into the FA
at this time. This could produce some locally heavy rains during
this time frame. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Interesting vortex feature in the Gulf south of Matagorda Bay. Winds
15-25kt with much higher gust in the SW waters this morning.  Other
than the NMM being the only one to really pick up on this compact
low pressure system - short term guidance not much help. This low
should track northwest and will likely keep moderate winds in place
over the western waters. Have hoisted a SCA and SCEC for our western
Gulf waters this morning. Platform (elevated sensor) west of our
waters reported wind gusts of 55 mph. By late morning expect this
low to have moved onshore and to quit intensifying. Southeasterly
flow should then prevail today and tonight with steady moistening
and will probably see more scattered showers develop. Gradient does
tighten up this weekend and might see SCEC conditions during the
overnight hours mainly well offshore. Models continue to waffle on
the frontal solution - GFS pushes a moderate cold front off the
coast Monday afternoon with cyclogenesis along the stalled front
Tuesday and a very tight gradient across the Upper Texas Coastal
Waters...while ECMWF slows the front near the coast Tuesday morning
with it meandering along the coast minus the cyclogenesis and hence
lighter winds more east and southeasterly. Have favored the ECMWF
with a slight bump up in windspeeds.
45
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR at 09z across the area. Fog hasn`t developed yet with the dry
air in place but T/TD spreads are narrowing and may yet see some
patchy fog develop. Will trended toward MIFG for LBX/SGR/CXO.
Will also be watching for the onset of SHRA for GLS/LBX/HOU to be
earlier with leading edge of moisture associated with the compact
low south of Matagorda. Plan to keep VCSH as the main threat today
but will keep a weary eye on the low. If it slows or drifts more
toward the north then may need to ramp up threat for rain near
LBX/GLS. Fog should return tonight with an afternoon of return flow.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      93  75  91  76  90 /  10  10  40  20  50
Houston (IAH)              91  77  90  77  89 /  20  10  40  20  50
Galveston (GLS)            89  82  87  81  87 /  20  20  30  20  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 8 AM CDT this morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$



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