Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 130010
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
710 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS TO BEGIN LOWERING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SOUTHERLY
BREEZES TO KEEP MANY AROUND LOW-END MVFR OVERCAST WITH POCKETS OF
MVFR HAZE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SATURATE THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER ENOUGH TO HAVE FORM OCCANSIONAL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
IFR DECKS. A BRISK SOUTH WIND SUNDAY WITH HEIGHTENED RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES. PRIMARILY SCATTERED LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS UNDER THE 85-9H CAP. A GREATER CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDER AS INSTABILITY WINS OUT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80
F OVER KCLL AND KUTS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN APPROACHING FAR
WEST TEXAS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO...OTHERWISE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.
AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO
TRACK TOWARD THE AREA AND SKIRT NW COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. CONTINUE TO
HAVE WARM LAYER OR CAP ABOUT THE SURFACE INHIBITING FORMATION OF
DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CANT RULE OUT FEW
RAIN SHOWERS VERY LATE TONIGHT FOR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...ABOUT A
20 PERCENT CHANCE...AND THEN SCATTERED STREAMER SHOWERS SUNDAY
MORNING UNDER THE CAP...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN OFF THE
GULF.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAP MAY
BREAK...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WHEN SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR. STILL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NOT
GREAT WITH UPPER TROUGH POSITIVELY TILTED AND AREA BEING LOCATED
IN LESS FAVORABLE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT...SO NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE
ANY WIDESRPEAD THUNDERSTORMS...OR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. IF ANY
STORMS WOULD DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THOSE NORTHERN ZONES...THEY
WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING EXPECT LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG OR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WITH MOST AREAS GETTING RAIN. UPPER SUPPORT A LITTLE BETTER
FOR THIS PERIOD. AM UPPING THE RAIN CHANCES TO 60 FOR MOST AREAS
BASED ON THIS IDEA. EXPECT WINDY....COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY MORNING WILL SEE A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS WITH MORNING
LOWS TUESDAY IN THE 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S SOUTH WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AT BEST. ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS RETURNS BY THURSDAY WITH SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AGAIN BY LATE WEEK. 46

&&

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WILL CARRY SCEC FOR THE
GULF WATERS WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS SLOWLY
BUILDING AND LONG SE FETCH IS ESTABLISHED BY SUNRISE AND EXPECT A
DECENT SWELL FIELD TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME HAZE AND SEA FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR 70.  THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
SETX MONDAY MORNING AND BE COMING OFF THE COAST AROUND 11 AM TO 3 PM
TIME FRAME. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS GOING TO FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE AND
WITH THE STRONG CAA WINDS NEAR GALE ARE POSSIBLE CERTAINLY SO WITH
GUSTS. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH SUNDAY FOR THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TRAVESE THE WATERS ON MONDAY WITH THE
FRONT.

MAY END UP WITH LOW WATER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      67  81  66  66  36 /  20  40  30  40  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  80  71  71  42 /  10  30  40  60  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  77  70  73  48 /  10  20  30  60  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...31



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