Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 260306
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1006 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
EARLY EVENING SOUTHEASTERN CWA CONVECTION WANING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GALORE RACING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS
EARLIER ACTIVITY NOW PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER BRAZOS RIVER VALLEY.
30 TO NEAR 50 KT WINDS OBSERVED VIA THE LOWER LEVEL KHGX AND KIAH
VELOCITY PRODUCTS INITIATED SOME NEAR SUNSET SPECIAL WEATHER AND
MARINE STATEMENTS IN AND AROUND GALVESTON BAY. A VERY RICH MOIST
AIR MASS (2.2 TO 2.4 INCH PWATS) MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
WILL SOON BE ENGULFING EASTERN TEXAS BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WEAK TUTT/INVERTED TROUGH AND AN EASTERLY SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS TOMORROW AND BE
THE IMPETUS FOR RETURN PERIODS OF WIDELY SCATTERED SOUTHERN
THIRD/MARITIME PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR AN INCH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FINAL POSITIONING OF THIS GULF COAST
TROUGH (AXIS) WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW LONG SHOWERS AND
STORMS PERSIST. AS OF NOW...NWP MODELING DOES SET-UP A WESTERN
GULF LOW THAT WILL FOCUS THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE
GULF. NORTHERN PROPAGATING GUST FRONTS WILL BE ENTERING A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST/HEATED AIR MASS...SO
ANTICIPATING THAT MANY COMMUNITIES PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 WILL EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION WITHIN PASSING RAIN CLUSTERS AND/OR
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THICKENED OVERCAST AND RAIN EPISODES OVER
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIMIT DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AVERAGE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S (VERSUS MID TO UPPER 90S
EXPERIENCED THESE PAST SEVERAL DAYS). 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

AVIATION...
CURRENTLY WATCHING A CLUSTER OF TSTMS ALONG THE S TX/LA BORDER
HEADED SW. ALSO A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE S OF
I-10. THINK CHC OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS METRO TERMINALS FOR
THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO UNTIL WE CAN GET SOME COOLING TEMPS
(CURRENTLY 97 AT IAH). STRONGER CELLS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY SEE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN SEE GRADUAL REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST &
OFFSHORE AS THE MOISTURE AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. THREAT OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD GENERALLY BE HIGHER SOUTH OF
HWY59/I-10 INTO EARLY AFTN TUE & MORE ISO/SCT WELL INLAND. OUTSIDE
OF PRECIP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. 47

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE FROM DEL RIO TO TULSA TO INDIANA WILL BE SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A WAVE IN THE GULF MOVES
WESTWARD TO NEAR THE TEXAS COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND STALLS.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE GALVESTON BAY AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN EXPANDS OUT TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AROUND THE BAY THEN
EXPANDS OUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND HEATING TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THE WAVE OVER THE GULF SHOULD UNDERGO LOWERING PRESSURES
AND A BROAD CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN GULF MAY KEEP RAIN
CHANCES CONCENTRATED OVER THE GULF PULLING IN DRY AIR FROM
NE TX/NW LA...THEN ON THURSDAY `BREATHE` OUT DURING THE DAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INLAND ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE VALUES
INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES OF PW AND ASSUMING THE WAVE STALLS AS ECMWF
DOES ALONG THE LOWER COAST THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN HIGH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL EXIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STORM MOTIONS ARE SLOW.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL JUST HIGHLIGHTING A BROAD CIRCULATION IN THE
WESTERN GULF WITH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS. STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THE MORE
REASONABLE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION AND FURTHER SOUTH.

ALL OF THE RAIN AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES WED-SAT AND HAVE PARED BACK PREV TEMPS BY 1-3 DEGREES
AND SO ARE BACK AT CLIMO OR JUST BELOW. 45

&&

MARINE...
AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT
EAST WINDS TO DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO BETWEEN 4-5 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
PERSISTENT EAST FLOW MAY ALSO DRIVE TIDE LEVELS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  97  75  96  75 /  10  30  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  93  76  94  76 /  30  50  20  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  82  91  82 /  40  60  40  50  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/47



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