Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 282319
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
619 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM LIBERTY-HOUSTON-EDNA SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BUT COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY
FOG AT THE USUAL SUSCEPTIBLE SITES LIKE CXO/LBX WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MEAGER CLOUDINESS PREVAILING. GENERALLY A REPEAT SCENARIO THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH JUST SOME LATE AFTN & EARLY EVNG ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA CLOSER TO THE COAST IN ASSOCIATION W/ LINGERING
MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING & SEABREEZE. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THIS ROUTINE SET OF TAFS. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
HRRR STILL DOING THE BEST JOB AMONGST THE MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM AND HAS NAILED THE LOCATION OF THE SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS
NEAR WHARTON AND COLUMBUS. SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HAVE WANED WITH SKIES PC AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 AT 2 PM. MID LEVELS DRYING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST PER W/W AND
DEWPOINTS INLAND HAVE FALLEN TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BUT STILL
LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
AND THE CONTINUED EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER TROUGHING EXPECT THE
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE...THOUGH OVER THE
GULF STORMS WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO DISSIPATE AND MAY LINGER OVER
THE FAR COASTAL WATERS ALL NIGHT.

00Z MODELS AND THE 12Z RUNS NOW CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME MOISTURE
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...ENOUGH THAT WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE TREND OF LOW END ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED NEAR THE COAST
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NORTH.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE CLIMO THIS
WEEK AND MAY SEE 90-92 DEGREES IN HOUSTON AND WARMER TO THE
NORTHWEST AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES THE STATE BEFORE FLATTENING
WEDNESDAY.

BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN COME THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN U.S. AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN THROUGH THE STATE. 12Z RUNS
STILL SHOWS VERY WARM NOSE 800-700MB AND MAY BE ENOUGH CAP TO
HINDER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. WILL
UNDERCUT THE MOS POP NUMBERS FOR NOW BUT STILL WITH 30-40 PERCENT.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 45

MARINE...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING OVERHEAD AND SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WILL
NOT EXTEND THE SCEC FURTHER. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  91  70  91  72 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  89  71  89  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  83  76  83  77 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$


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