Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 251141
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
541 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH -RA ARE AT MOST TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE TEXAS STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA. HAVE ALL TAFS VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH NW TO N WINDS
10-13 KNOTS. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY STRENGTHENING
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AFTER A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS COULD GET GUSTY TOO.  42
&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING
AS A RESULT OF LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S AND DESPITE A FEW
AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS OF UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION ALL LOCATIONS HAVE
REPORTED RAIN ONLY THUS FAR THIS MORNING. A CHANCE FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION STILL EXISTS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PROFILE COOLS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER WEST TEXAS. NAM/GFS DIFFER AS TO THE
PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE SEE
SLEET OR SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE SURFACE AM EXPECTING RAIN TO BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
TYPE WITH SOME SNOW OR SLEET MIXING IN THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MADISONVILLE TO GROVETON.

DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A REINFORCING
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. MODELS DIFFER WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF STALLING IT
OUT JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION AND THE GFS BRINGING IT THROUGH. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 38

MARINE...
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS A STRENGTHENING
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. CAUTION OR ADVISORY FLAGS WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      51  34  51  32  46 /  50  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              53  37  58  35  50 /  50  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            54  42  57  43  52 /  50  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HOUSTON...MADISON...TRINITY.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42


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