Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 190212
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
812 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SW LA. LIGHT SFC
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SOUTH AND DEW PTS HAVE CLIMBED A BIT FROM
LAST NIGHT. CLOUDS ARE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND INCHING THEIR WAY TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD
KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR BUT LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTED SOME
SUB FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE FAR EAST AND NE ZONES. RAISED MIN
TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND LOWERED TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
(KLBX) AND EASTERN ZONES.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NITE/FRIDAY
AND BRING THE AREA SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT OVER EAST TEXAS THE SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS NE TX INTO ARKANSAS.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONGLY DIVERGENT AND PW VALUES SURGE TO
1.6 INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY MODEST CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
1000 J/KG OR LESS BUT OTHER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK IMPRESSIVE
WITH HELICITY VALUES OVER 250. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO ISSUED A SCEC FOR THE 20-60 NM MARINE ZONES THROUGH 09Z AS
EAST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS PERSIST AND SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

40

AVIATION...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST AND SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.
ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD THE COAST...VFR
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

40

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH ADVISORIES EXPIRING
AT 6PM. THE 42019 BUOY STILL SUPPORTS SCA CONDITIONS BUT
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST AND FORECAST MODELS STILL ON TRACK WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LIKELY NEED SCA FOR THE
UPPER TX COAST THUR THROUGH MUCH OF FRI. LONG FETCH OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A
COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      34  61  48  67  57 /   0  10  10  20  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              35  63  51  70  60 /   0  10  10  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            45  64  58  71  63 /   0  10  10  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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