Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 140850
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
350 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY COOL WX ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CLOUDINESS COULD BE SLOW TO BREAK TODAY (IF IT
DOES)...POSSIBLY LATE AFTN FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS`LL BE THE KEY
AS TO HOW MUCH TEMPS WARM UP TODAY AND ATTM FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE
GOING WITH OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS.
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES
OUT AND THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE TROF IN THE GULF MOVE CLOSER.
UNLIKELY THIS SYSTEM GETS BETTER ORGANIZED OR DEVELOPS BEFORE THE
AXIS APPROACHES THE WRN GULF COAST LATE MON. WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING MOISTURE AS THIS OCCURS ALONG WITH A BUMP IN ASSOCIATED
RAIN CHANCES...WHICH`LL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS WE GET ON THE
BACK SIDE. MODELS THIS MORNING AREN`T HOWEVER SHOWING QUITE AS
MUCH DEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER SE TX AS PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS BUT
STILL RESPECTABLE ENOUGH FOR HIGHER END SCT COVERAGE ESP THE SRN
HALF OF SE TX. WOULD ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO GENERALLY FOLLOW THE
USUAL DIURNAL TREND (NEAR COAST AT NIGHT/MORNINGS EXPANDING INLAND
DURING THE DAY WITH HEATING. OVERALL...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
ONGOING FCST. 47

&&

.MARINE...
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS HELP-
ING TO KEEP WINDS/SEAS A BIT ELEVATED THIS MORNING. AS SUCH WILL NOT
BE DROPPING THE CAUTION FLAGS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MID MORN
OR SO. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FCST FOR THE OFFSHORE THESE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE FRONT LINGERING
IN THE AREA INTERACTS WITH A WEAK TUTT LOW MOVING WWD TOWARD THE LOW-
ER TX COASTLINE.  41

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH
THE DRIER AIR LOFT MIXING DOWN. NO MENTION OF PCPN FOR THIS NEXT TAF
PACKAGE FOR ANY OF THE SITES AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CIGS TONIGHT/
MON MORNING WILL BE DECREASED PER THE DEEPENING DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLING OVER SE TX. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  71  91  74  91 /   0   0  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  71  91  75  90 /   0   0  40  10  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  79  88  80  89 /   0  20  40  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$


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