Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 201117
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
617 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES HAVE MOVED INTO KUTS THIS
MORNING AND MANY SITES ACROSS THE AREA SHOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
TEMPERATURE SPREADS OF ONE TO TWO DEGREES. AFTER THE SUN RISES LOW
CIGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT. GPS MET
SITE SHOWING DRIER AIR STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TODAY AT THE TERMINALS
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BIG CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST STANDS OUT NICELY ON
SATELLITE AND DEWPOINTS LOWERING TO 69 AT HUNTSVILLE...74 EVEN AT
GLS. RAIN CHANCES TODAY SHOULD MAINLY STRETCH FROM AROUND BRENHAM
TO LIBERTY SOUTHWARD WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF I-45+I-10. TEMPERATURES REBOUND
THIS WEEKEND FROM OUR LAST FEW RAIN FILLED DAYS WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
TODAY AND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON SUNDAY. EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE REGION SUNDAY AND SHUNT THE MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES TO THE GULF WATERS AND PERHAPS NEAR MATAGORDA BAY
AREA. UPPER TROUGH JUST WEST OF GREAT LAKES WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
AND INTENSIFY DRAMATICALLY PUSHING A FRONT DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE THAT
SOME OF THE MODELS PROG TO ARRIVE WITH THE BOUNDARY GIVEN THE POOR
ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT SO HAVE LIMITED
THE POPS TO 20S AND 30S NORTH AND EAST OF HOUSTON. FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY AND SHOULD DEPART THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
EXPECT THE RAIN CHANCES TO FOCUS OVER THE FAR COASTAL WATERS OR
DEEPER IN THE GULF. OF COURSE BY THURSDAY THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE
DIVERGES DRAMATICALLY...ARGGG...WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE SHARP
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST. HAVE IN GENERAL FAVORED THE MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH FOR SETX MAINTAINS A DRIER REGIME
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A CHAMBER
OF COMMERCE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH TO 45
PERCENT THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA...BBQ WEATHER.

45

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST WILL HELP KEEP EASTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEEKEND MARINERS CAN EXPECT
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEA HEIGHTS DUE TO THE PROLONGED EASTERLY FETCH. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING AND WASHING
OUT NEAR THE COAST. EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN MID WEEK AND BEYOND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FETCH WILL ALLOW TIDE LEVELS TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      89  71  93  72  92 /  10  10   0  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  72  92  72  92 /  20  20   0   0  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  78  87  78  89 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...23



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