Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 252359
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
659 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KCLL AND KUTS
FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS. THE LINE HAS HAD A SLOW SE PROGRESSION...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LINE WILL ACCELERATE AND THE
SOUTHERN PORTION WILL IMPACT THE HOUSTON METRO TERMINALS BETWEEN
02-04Z AND THE COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 04-07Z. THE TIMING
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT TERMINALS TO THE NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR.

BEHIND THE LINE...ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT HOUSTON METRO AREA
TERMINALS.   44

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
LINE OF STORMS HAS BACK BUILT AND ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SE TX UNTIL 2AM. ARE WX HAZARDS
ARE IN PLAY - FLASH FLOODING...WIND DAMAGE...HAIL & TORNADOES.
LINE IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS NE TX WHICH IS CAUSE
FOR CONCERN THE SRN PART MOVING INTO SE TX COULD EVENTUALLY SLOW
AND CAUSE MORE HEADACHES LATE TONIGHT. BUT AS OF THIS MOMENT IT IS
STILL ADVANCING ESE. WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
DISCUSSION... SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
HAS GENERATED FAST MOVING LINE OF TSTMS ALONG W/ SOME SUPERCELLS.
TRAILING THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
ARE BEING FED BY 30-35KT LLJ FROM THE GULF ALONG W/ EVIDENT
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.

THESE STORMS SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE TRAINING NATURE...AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AND FF WATCH WAS EXTENDED UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY BE OBSERVED...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY...LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD SEE LESS
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING STILL
EXISTS SHOULD LOCALIZED HEAVY AMOUNTS OCCUR...THEREFORE THAT
REGION WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE WATCH. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS W/ TORNADOS & WIND DAMAGE PRIMARY THREATS.

BEST DIVERGENCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND WOULD
ANTICIPATE GENERAL INTENSITY TO INCREASE. AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
FORCING MOVES OFF INTO OK/ARKANSAS THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTION OVER US WILL SLOW DOWN...LEAVING
A BOUNDARY FOR LINGERING PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND/OR BOUNDARY TO WORK
OFF OF TOMORROW. WE`RE GOING TO JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERING MODEL SOLNS -
AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES MIGHT COME INTO PLAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE POTENTIAL LINGERING BOUNDARY, ETC FOR
TUE...WE SHOULD SEE PW VALUES DIMINISH BACK INTO THE 1.5-1.7"
RANGE AND SLIGHT MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGIN TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NW
GULF FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SHOULDN`T COMPLETELY
SHUTOFF PRECIP CHANCES...BUT SHIFT THEM INTO MORE OF THE USUAL
DIURNAL SCT AFTN/EVNG VARIETY. STILL ANTICIPATE RIDGE TO BE
SUPPRESSED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS NEXT WRN TROF MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. 47

MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
BE OVER THE INLAND AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH MID EVENING TONIGHT. FROM THERE THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE
ARE STILL SOME CONCERNS FOR MINOR FLOODING DURING THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIDE LEVELS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  87  73  87  72 / 100  20  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  88  73  88  74 /  90  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  85  77  86  78 /  70  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...44


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