Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 220451
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1151 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Model soundings
suggest little in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity
tomorrow...isolated at best...not enough to include any mention
in TAFs. No indication of any stratus of fog development
overnight. Overall think should see similar day tomorrow as
occurred today. 18

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Forecast package and discussions below look good, and no major
changes were made on the evening update.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM...
No serious changes have been made to the short term forecast this
afternoon. Winds continue to remain out of the southeast as the
strong surface high continues to drive the synoptic scale flow. On
Friday, showers and thunderstorms will move onshore slightly, but
continue to hug the coastline. A surge of moisture moves into the
forecast come this weekend, resulting in precip making its way
more inland come Saturday and Sunday. As the surface ridge begins
to drift off to the east, the next best chance for storm coverage
will be on Sunday and into the beginning of your next work week as
convection starts to ramp up. Temperatures will remain persistent,
keeping highs in the 90s, and lows in the mid 70s. 08

LONG TERM...
The ridge continues to flatten and shift westward to start out the
long term, allowing a more typical summer-like pattern to take
place. PWs are forecast to reach around 2.1" both Sunday and
Monday, which will cause higher coverage in afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Have capped PoPs for Sunday and Monday at 40 for
now, but these may need to be increased as confidence grows. On
Tuesday PWs decrease slightly to around 2" but will still be
plenty good enough for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. On Wednesday, the GFS has a disturbance moving
along the southern side of a ridge over the SE CONUS and into SE
Texas. However, the ECMWF currently takes it into Alabama.
Currently have isolated to scattered PoPs in for Wednesday, but
this also may change as we get closer and the models start
trending towards one solution.

With the increase in afternoon showers and thunderstorms through
the extended period also comes more cloud cover, which will help keep
high temperatures a few degrees cooler than in the short term
(although still hot). Heat index values generally in the low to
mid 100s are expected each afternoon. 11

MARINE...
A typical summertime pattern in place, which will result in
continued light to moderate easterly/southeasterly flow across the
waters. Water vapor imagery continues to show upper disturbances
riding along the periphery of the ridge that should bring
precipitation chances daily. However, potential is likely a little
bit lower in the near term until the ridge flattens out some and
lower heights allow for greater precip coverage. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      77  98  77  97  77 /  10  10  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              77  97  77  96  79 /  10  30  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            82  91  82  90  82 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...99
Aviation/Marine...99



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