Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 221937
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
237 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Seabreeze storms developing mainly east of the bay and a few near
Matagorda bay this afternoon. Convective temp closer to 94 today
and so expect a few to overcome capping and develop along the
remainder of the seabreeze this afternoon including into the
Houston Metro. Storms will be slow moving and capable of 1-2
inches of rainfall but spotty. Storms should dissipate quickly
between 530-630 pm with end of the heating.

Moisture continue to increase tomorrow and will probably see
showers developing over the coastal waters with a light wind
regime or a land breeze. After the seabreeze develop storms should
fire up and spread well inland during the afternoon. Followed by
another early end to the storms by 6 or 7 pm.

Transition day should be Sunday with PW climbing to 2.1-2.2" and
inverted upper trough sliding toward and through the area Monday.
This environment will be ripe for scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms and have bumped up pops to 40-60 and may even
need to go higher for Monday. Gusty winds Sunday also a minor
threat. During the day Monday storms will likely be very efficient
and can`t rule out the 3-4" hour rainfall rates.

Upper ridge will be retreating westward over the coming days
allowing the inverted trough in which should ease down the max
temps a little but min temps may creep upward with the increase in
moisture and cloud cover. Semi active pattern Tuesday through
Friday with easterly impulses and abundant moisture over the area.
45

&&


.MARINE...
We should be seeing a slight shift from the light easterly winds of
late to a southeasterly one tonight/tomorrow morning as the surface
high shifts further east. This light onshore flow is expected to re-
main in place the next several days. We could also see some increase
in showers/thunderstorms over the weekend into the first half of the
new week as disturbances move in from the east. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      77  98  77  97  77 /   0  20  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              79  97  79  96  78 /  10  30  10  40  20
Galveston (GLS)            82  92  82  91  81 /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...41



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