Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 220901
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
401 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level of high pressure centered over the northern and
west-central portions of the state will drift eastward over the
next several days. By the start of the upcoming week, a weakness
in the ridge will be over SE Texas.

A weak upper level shortwave trough will move southwestward over
the coastal areas of the forecast area today. Deeper layer
moisture could be seen on the 330 AM analysis which showed 1.9
inch PW/s west of Galveston Bay and generally along and south of
I-10. The high resolution HRRR and Texas Tech WRF both forecast
the potential for isolated showers today. Think that the coverage
will be better along the coast this morning and less coverage as
the seabreeze moves inland later today.

Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will lesson over
the next few days as a capping inversion sets up overhead. Think
that the seabreeze will be the main driver but it may be tough to
overcome the subsidence as the upper ridge begins to become more
dominate. Beginning over the weekend and into early next week a
model consensus has slightly better rain chances returning as the
weakness in the upper level ridge becomes more prominent over
the area.

40

&&

.MARINE...

This morning there are a few isolated showers and thunderstorms
off the Upper Texas Coast mainly offshore Matagorda. Thunderstorm
activity today will be confined more to inland areas but likely
limited in coverage with the upper level ridge over the region.
Thunderstorm chances do increase for the end of the week and the
weekend with the ridge weakening and higher moisture returning to
the area. Overall a typical summer time pattern will continue for
the Upper Texas Coast with moderate southerly winds and low seas.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      92  73  93  72  94 /  10   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)              90  74  91  74  93 /  20   0  10   0  20
Galveston (GLS)            85  80  87  80  87 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39



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