Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 190924
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
424 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THRU ABOUT THE NORTHEAST
2/3 OF THE CWA. WITH EXCEPTION OF FAR NE COUNTIES AIRMASS AHEAD &
BEHIND THE FRONT GETTING MORE DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH. MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ISOLATED PRECIP A POSSIBILITY GENERALLY
SSW OF A COLUMBUS-GALVESTON LINE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
OVERALL THEY`VE BEEN OVERDOING COVERAGE AND ATMOS REMAINS FAIRLY
DRY SO THINK 20% POPS ARE PLENTY ADEQUATE ATTM.

PLEASANT WX EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRES EXTENDING
FROM THE MIDWEST INTO E TX COMBINED W/ BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WILL RESULT IN A ENE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK - EFFECTIVELY LIMITING INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FCST THUR/FRI. MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS SHOW
A RIDGE AMPLIFYING FROM MEXICO NWD THRU THE ROCKIES AND A
TROF/SHORTWAVE DIGGING SSE FROM THE PLAINS INTO E TX OR LA. ECMWF
STILL CUTTING OFF A LOW BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER EWD (AND CLOSER
TO THE GFS) TRACK THAN YDAYS RUN. IT`S POSITIONING WOULD STILL BE
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO IMPACT SE TX WX/TEMPS DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL
MOISTURE PROFILE. IN THAT REGARD...WOULD LIKE TO BELIEVE THAT THE
DRIER SOLN WOULD BE THE WAY TO GO CONSIDERING GULF MOSTLY BEING
SHUTOFF DURING THE WEEK. THAT`S THE WAY THE FCST IS CURRENTLY
TRENDED AND WILL CONTINUE THAT ROUTE FOR NOW UNTIL WE SOME BETTER
CONFIDENCE HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. PRELIMINARY LOOK AT NEXT
WEEKEND WX LOOKS DRY AS TROF/LOW AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
47

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT E/NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS ARE EX-
PECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH LEVELS
POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY/CAUTION LEVELS BY MID WEEK OR SO. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  61  83  61  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  61  84  61  85 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  71  82  71  82 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$


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