Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 261159
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
659 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.AVIATION...
Convective chances will be on the rise through the day. A
shortwave disturbance passing up from the southwest should be the
kicker in producing (primarily afternoon northern hub) scattered
showers and thunderstorms. High resident regional moisture with
decent southeasterly inflow so, as afternoon temperatures approach
the middle 80s, central Texas activity should begin to blossom and
maintain itself into portions of southeastern Texas. Timing is
tricky with western interior activity possibly beginning as early
as late mid to late morning with possible VCTS around metro hubs
commencing after noon or 1 PM. Convective initialization will all
be dependent upon the timing of a disturbance that is modeled to
move out of the valley and travel northeast through East Texas
during peak heating. Periods of VFR ceilings but majority of the
period will be spent at MVFR (occasional IFR up north) with a
persistent 10-15 knot lower level onshore wind. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Still looking for increasing rain chances across Southeast Texas over
the next two days as a series of disturbances move across the state
and help to ignite shower and thunderstorm development. Best support/
lift/instability for possible strong/severe storms and locally heavy
rainfall still looks to be setting up across parts of our western and
northwestern counties. However, based on a number of different scenarios
being shown by the models, cannot rule out some of this risk (especially
the locally heavy rainfall) spreading further to the east and south
across the rest of our area. The primary severe weather threats will
be locally heavy rainfall (and possible localized flooding) along with
strong/damaging winds, frequent lightning and large hail. Rainfall totals
for this Thursday-Friday event are expected to range from 1 to 2 inches
in and around the coastal counties to 3 to 4 inches across our northwestern
and western counties. Locally higher amounts will be possible area wide.
Looks like less rain over the Memorial holiday weekend with lower rain
chances and warmer temperatures. Look for mainly daytime 20% to 30%
rain chances during the first half of next week as weak upper level
ridging attempts to build into the state from the south. The next upper
level trough moving slowly eastward across the state during the second
half of the week has some potential to getting us back into a wet pattern
as we start the new month.  42

MARINE...
The tightening onshore pressure gradient between a deepening low
over the OK/TX Panhandles and the southeastern U.S. high will
maintain a stout southeasterly wind through the day. Winds will
likely strengthen to caution levels over the western waters this
afternoon...water-wide caution level winds by this evening. This
persistent fetch will magnify to advisory levels overnight early
Friday morning and likely maintain these magnitudes through the late
afternoon. Seas will gradually build from this afternoon`s average 4
to 5 foot heights to 5 to 8 feet by Friday afternoon with a 7 to 8
second period swell. Slight chances for showers or storms today will
increase to low chances over the bays and nearshore waters Friday
with the passage of a stronger shortwave disturbance. A more
pronounced rip current may linger on through late Saturday evening.

Memorial Day weekend weather will be less active...a 10-15 knot
southeast wind over lowering seas...3 to 4 foot wave heights by late
Saturday night through Sunday PM. Memorial Day will be
tranquil...very low rain chances and a near 10 knot onshore wind
over average 2 to 3 foot wave heights. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      82  73  82  71  88 /  70  50  70  50  40
Houston (IAH)              84  75  84  73  88 /  50  40  60  40  30
Galveston (GLS)            82  78  82  78  83 /  40  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
     Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 4 PM CDT this afternoon
     through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal
     waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
     NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from this evening through
     late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters
     from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31
Aviation/Marine...42



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