Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 312015
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
315 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS COMING TO AN END AND RAIN FREE EVENING IS IN STORE FOR SE
TX. COULD GET SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. PW VALUES REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ON MONDAY WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 2.00 TO 2.10 INCHES BY AFTN. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 90 DEGREES SO FEEL HEATING WILL TRIGGER SCT
SHRA/TSRA ON MON AFTN. ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
MEXICAN COAST ON TUESDAY. THE WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.20 INCHES. RELATIVELY
LOW HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUES MORNING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND
ON WEDNESDAY BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. FCST
SOUNDINGS ON WED ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE SOUNDING
PROFILE. THERE IS STILL A WEAKNESS ALOFT SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.00 AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 80S. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE INTO TEXAS
ON SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT MORE BENIGN. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES...BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA. BOTH MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY WHICH HELPS PUSH A WEAK FRONT INTO TEXAS. THE
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SE TX AND WILL
LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ON SUN/MON. 43

&&

.MARINE...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PASSING STORMS AS THE RESIDENT UNSETTLED AIR
MASS WILL UNDERGO LITTLE NEAR TERM CHANGE. AS AN EASTERLY WAVE
ENTERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE WESTERN
GULF PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME TIGHT ENOUGH TO GENERATE
STRENGTHENED ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS FLOW WILL PULL IN
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SWELL LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SCEC CONDITIONS...BUT GENERALLY WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN JUST A TOUCH UNDER THIS CRITERIA. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  76  93  75 /  10  20  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  78  91  77 /  10  30  20  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  90  83  88  81 /  10  20  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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