Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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379
FXUS64 KHGX 191755
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1155 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.AVIATION...
A few sprinkles moving through the area beneath the bkn/ovc IFR
cigs north and bkn/ovc MVFR cigs south. Abundant moisture should
keep most sites in the 900-2000 ft cig range through the
afternoon. It is possible a few breaks with VFR conditions
developing but short lived and spreading northward. Winds will be
increasing this afternoon and getting gusty at times from the
southeast. This evening expect cigs to lower with IFR cigs to
prevail at most sites until the storms moving in from the west
arrive. General trend will be -ra/-shra 07-10z then transitioning
over to shra/-tsra then as main line arrives tsra/+tsra 11-18z
window then trending back to shra for the late morning/early
afternoon hours. Gusty winds with the storms should be high end of
strong storms...primarily heavy rainfall and reduced visibility
with the storms training over the region. Significant impacts to
area terminals expected with persistent south to north (northward
propagating individual storms) bands of storms.
45


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Seeing a few patches of drizzle still around late this morning.
Otherwise, no showers yet. With some heating, we are likely to
see isolated showers develop later this aft, especially across nw
areas. Removed the mention of thunder for this aft. Temps are
likely to peak close to 80 inland today with mostly cloudy skies.

The main event will begin after midnight as showers/thunderstorms
approach and/or develop across western areas. Expecting widespread
shwrs/tstms slowly moving from west to east in the 2 AM Mon to
late afternoon period. Looking like there will be a flash flood
threat where we see repeated cell movement over the same areas,
especially across the SE 2/3rds of the area. We are likely going
to be issuing a flash flood watch for portions of SE Texas later
this afternoon for the time period of early Monday morning through
Monday afternoon.

33/45


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      81  65  72  57  76 /  30  90  80  20  10
Houston (IAH)              80  68  72  60  75 /  20  80  90  30  30
Galveston (GLS)            75  68  70  63  72 /  10  60  90  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 6 PM CST this evening
     through late tonight for the following zones: Coastal
     waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
     NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20
     NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...33
Aviation/Marine...45



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