Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
FXUS64 KHGX 231812
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1212 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017
Winds will be out of the south southeast for the remainder of the
afternoon and into the early evening. Expecting winds to pick up
in speed this afternoon, with gusty conditions up to about 20
knots across most of the terminals. Should begin to see winds drop
off as we moving into the evening hours tonight.
Early Friday morning, could see the potential for fog, similar to
how things set up this morning. Models are indicating the chance
for radiational fog beginning to lower ceilings between 09 and
14Z. Expecting conditions to drop to IFR/LIFR across most of the
terminals. Model guidance shows a better chance of fog development
in the earlier morning hours for the western half of the forecast
area and then slowly filling in to the east. Little bit of
discrepancy between the SREF and HRRR with regards to fog
development. Lowered visibilities and fog development will really
depend on whether or not the winds decouple overnight enough to
allow for the winds to lower in speed at the surface.
A cold front pushes through SE Texas beginning in the late Friday
morning for the northern portions of the forecast area. The cold
front will eventually clear the coast by early Friday evening.
Mentioned this wind shift following the front, with winds
beginning to veer towards the end of the TAF period. Behind the
front winds will be out of the NW.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/
Morning low clouds and fog are almost gone. Look for increasing south
to southeast winds today under a tightening pressure gradient in response
to a deepening surface low in the Oklahoma panhandle area. Unseasonably
warm temperatures will continue until the next cold front moves through
the area during the day tomorrow. 42
Winds are out of the southeast this morning, between 10 to 15 knots.
This afternoon and into early evening, winds should increase in
speed to around 15 to 20 knots and remain out of the southeast.
Therefore, should see seas begin to build gradually off the Upper
Texas coast tonight and exercise caution criteria may be necessary.
Will reevaluate possible criteria conditions as model guidance comes
in later this morning. Currently, seas are 1 to 2 feet across the
nearshore and offshore waters, with the occasional 3 foot in the
Winds should weaken Friday morning, remaining southerly between 5 to
10 knots. A cold front pushes off the coast by Friday night,
allowing for a strong north to northeasterly wind to develop by
Saturday morning. This could result in a rise in seas, between 4 to
6 feet on Saturday.
Tides are currently still sitting about a half foot above normal,
due to the winds out of the southeast.
College Station`s average temperature Feb. 1-22 is 64.0 degrees which
is 10.1 degrees above normal. College Station`s warmest February on
record is 61.4 degrees set in 1999.
Houston Intercontinental`s average temperature Feb. 1-22 is 66.0 degrees
which is 10.2 degrees above normal. Houston Intercontinental`s warmest
February on record is 65.9 degrees set in 1962.
Houston Hobby average temperature Feb. 1-22 is 66.6 degrees which is
10.0 degrees above normal. Houston Hobby`s warmest February on record
is 63.9 degrees set in 1962.
Galveston average temperature Feb. 1-22 is 67.2 degrees which is 10.1
degrees above normal. Galveston`s warmest February on record is 65.0
degrees set in 1932.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 59 80 45 65 43 / 0 10 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 63 84 49 69 47 / 0 10 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 65 75 57 67 57 / 0 10 10 0 0