Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 200854

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
354 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

Another warm and humid morning is underway for Southeast Texas
with 3 AM temperatures in the mid to upper 70s as the region
remains on the periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the
Southern Plains. Area radars show a few showers developing over
the coastal waters early this morning, with a few of these making
their way into coastal areas. Expect a fairly similar forecast to
yesterday with isolated to scattered marine convection persisting
through the remainder of the morning, with rain chances shifting
farther inland along the sea breeze late this morning and into
the afternoon. Greater subsidence from the upper ridge and
marginally lower moisture levels this afternoon (1.6-1.8 inch
PWATs) should provide for less shower and thunderstorm coverage
than yesterday. Otherwise, expect high temperatures again in the
low 90s along the coast and mid to upper 90s inland.

The upper ridge will maintain its influence over the region into
into the upcoming weekend, leaving a fairly stagnant pattern for
Southeast Texas. Warm and humid mornings with a few showers along
the coast will transition to hot and humid afternoons with a stray
shower or two generally along and south of the Highway 59
corridor. The NAM does attempt to bring a weak disturbance around
the upper ridge and across the region on Friday, and this may
result in higher PoPs (and lower temperatures) than what is
forecast. However, given the lack of consistency in this solution
with other models, will continue to trend closer to persistence
for this portion of the forecast. Otherwise, expect high
temperatures to gradually creep up into the upper 90s to possibly
100 at many inland locations on Thursday and Friday. Elevated heat
index values are expected through the end of the week but not
currently anticipating any heat advisories as forecast soundings
indicate enough mixing will occur to keep values in the 100-107
degree range.

A shortwave trough now off of the Washington/Oregon coasts early
this morning will gradually push towards the Rocky Mountains this
weekend, expanding the upper ridge across much of the southern
CONUS as it flattens. As heights aloft lower and subsidence over
the region weakens, a few more diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms may be able to develop on Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will still remain hot in the upper 80s along the
coast to mid-upper 90s inland.

At the beginning of next week, a piece of energy looks to break
away from an upper trough located off the East Coast this morning,
retrograding westward under the broad flat ridge across the
southern CONUS. This weakness aloft reaching the region, combined
with low-mid level flow becoming more southeasterly (encouraging
more moisture to return to the region), looks to result in almost
daily chances for scattered showers and storms by the middle of
next week.



High pressure over the SE U.S. and very weak low pressure over
the southwest Gulf will maintain light to moderate E-SE winds
through Friday morning. The high pressure will retreat east and
weak low pressure over the southern plains will induce more of a
southeast wind over the weekend. The pressure gradient will remain
weak and wind speeds are expected to remain below 15 knots through
the weekend. Tide levels will remain slightly elevated due to east
winds and levels will run about 1.0 to 1.25 feet above normal
through Friday. 43


College Station (CLL)      97  76  98  77  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              96  77  97  77  97 /  20  10  20  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            91  81  92  82  90 /  30  20  20  10  10




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