Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 021726
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1126 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT TURNED AROUND LAST NIGHT AND SHOVED INTO THE GULF AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. RE-ENFORCING COLD AIRMASS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY STEADY WITH SOME SLIGHT WARMING THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST TUE MORNING AND
BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. MAIN CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE TO UPDATE T/TD TRENDS AND RAIN
CHANCES. LOOK FOR OFF/ON SHOWERS/DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. FOG
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT BUT COULD ERODE WITH MIXING
TOMORROW.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
ANOTHER DAY OF LOW LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND PREDOMINANT MVFR FOG.
LESS PRECIPITATION TODAY AS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS FALLS ON THE MORE
SUBSIDENT WESTERN SIDE OF A WESTERN GULF TROUGH AXIS. AS A SURFACE
WARM FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD...LIGHT NORTHERLIES WILL BECOME VRB
AND THEN VEER AROUND TO ONSHORE TUESDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE OF A COOL NEAR SURFACE LAYER BELOW WARM AND MOIST MID
LAYERS WILL KEEP CEILINGS IFR WITH THE SUN POSSIBLY WORKING ON
THE DECK LONG ENOUGH TO AFFORD LATE AFTERNOON BREAKS TO MVFR.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOO WIDELY SCATTERED TO ACCURATELY
PINPOINT SO LEFT VCSH OUT OF THESE TAFS. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH WINDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LIGHT RAIN ARE FOUND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST. SOME
OF THE FOG HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME DENSE ONCE AGAIN TODAY...AND
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY UNDER PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY (HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S) AS SURFACE WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND STRENGTHEN. ENJOY THE WARMTH WHILE YOU CAN...BECAUSE THE WELL
ADVERTISED STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO RACE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD SNAP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IF ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE FRONT...
IT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD
SEE SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. CLOSER TO
THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS ARE PROBABLY
GOING TO GET STRONG ENOUGH FOR WIND ADVISORIES UNDER A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LOOKING VERY COLD.  42

MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...OR UNTIL NORTHERLY
FLOW ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF WESTERN GULF TROUGHING PULLS IN A DRIER
AIR MASS. THIS TROUGH WILL WASH OUT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND
LOWERING U.S. PLAINS PRESSURES WILL VEER WINDS ONSHORE TUESDAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE NEAR CAUTION LEVEL WINDS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN
TO ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY...WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE FROM
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN
RESPONSE TO THESE VERY STRONG POST-FRONTAL OFFSHORE WINDS...THURSDAY`S
OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS WILL EASILY EXCEED 10 FEET. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      49  49  72  61  63 /  30  30  30  30  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              57  55  74  65  71 /  30  20  20  30  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            59  58  69  63  66 /  30  20  20  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39



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