Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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215
FXUS64 KHGX 162005
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
305 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DAYTIME HEATING IS WORKING THE MAGIC THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE 59 CORRIDOR. STORMS HAVE BEEN
SMALL AND NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS / VIL
25-40G/KG /STORM MOTIONS OF 23 KNOTS AND RAINFALL RATES OF
.25-.75"/HOUR THANKS TO FAIRLY QUICK MOTION. THOUGH THE
INSTABILITY DOES CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT WITH PEAK HEATING CAPE VALUES LIMITED TO 2100-2700J/KG WITH
LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT THAT REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER
NORTH...THEN WANE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW MODELS
HIGHLIGHT DEVELOPMENT WELL DOWN THE DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS BETWEEN
MAF/SJT. IF THIS OCCURS THEN WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TAIL-
DRAGGERS AS THEY MAY GET CLOSE TO THE NW CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY
RAIN THREAT LOOKS LOW HERE BUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THE THREAT
SHOULD INCREASE WHERE STORMS LINE UP AND TRAIN AS LLJ INTENSIFIES
WITH STORMS GOING MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT ST DECK TO RETURN THE AREA AND SSE FLOW TO
CONTINUE ALBEIT SOMEWHAT LESS FORCEFULLY INLAND SO TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL SLOWLY GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER/WINDS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGER PART IN OUR DAILY
RAIN CHANCES AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA 588-590DM 500MB
HEIGHTS COVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE MORE CAPPING. THEN
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY RIDGE FLATTENS AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS STORM TRACK
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCE THIS
WEEK LOOK TO BE OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST
PORTIONS TX/NW LA AND THIS COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS.
HEAVIER RAINS IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS A THREAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THE RIDGING RETURNS AND RAIN CHANCES AGAIN TAPER OFF.
NEXT TROUGH DROPS INTO THE DESERT SW FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH MAY SET
THE STAGE FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN OUR WESTERN ZONES
BUT EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING THE RIDGING OVER THE GULF POSSIBLY
EXERTING ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING
THE DAY AND 4 TO 9 DEGREES WARMER ON MINS WITH THE PERSISTENT
MOIST GULF RETURN.
45
&&

.MARINE...
AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP KEEP ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. CAUTION FLAGS
ARE IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. WINDS AND SEAS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DECREASE BEGINNING ON MONDAY...AND MAINLY
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
42
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  87  74  87  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  88  75  88  73 /  20  20  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  85  79  85  76 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45



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