Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 302001
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
301 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER NICE SPRING DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. PW VALUES ARE
PROGGED TO FALL BELOW AN INCH ON TUESDAY WITH A VERY DRY LAYER
NOTED AT 850 MB AND A STRONG CAP IN PLACE. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT
WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FEATURE IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PROGGED YESTERDAY AND WILL APPROACH
SE TX DURING THE LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
AT 850 MB WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO FORCE THE S/WV TO THE NW AND
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 850 MB HIGH. WILL TAPER POPS HIGHEST
WEST AND LOWER TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH TIMING...QPF AND POPS. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE NAM 12 FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG ON WED AFTN WITH
LI VALUES -5 TO -8 AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES. JET DYNAMICS NOT
LOOKING TOO IMPRESSIVE BUT OTHER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTN OVER THE NW
HALF OF THE REGION. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BUT THINK SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE IN THE
WAKE OF THE S/WV. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING JUST IN CASE THE EC/CAN ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND 850 MB TEMPS REALLY WARM UP BY FRIDAY. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS ON FRIDAY REACH THE UPPER 80S BUT FOR NOW
HAVE TRENDED WARMER BUT FEEL CLOUD COVER MIGHT LINGER THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON NEGATING THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX FRI NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. CONSIDERABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX ON SUNDAY
AND THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE MORE RAIN FOR SE TX.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WESTERN EXPANSION OF THE FLORIDA-CENTERED SURFACE RIDGE HAS
WEAKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO LOWER ONSHORE WINDS TO
UNDER 10 KTS...KEEPING SWELL/SEA HEIGHTS TO 4 FEET AND UNDER TODAY.
NEAR 10 KT ONSHORE WINDS TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN A 2 TO 3 FOOT GULF
WAVE HEIGHT WITH RELATIVELY SMOOTH BAY WATERS. A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AT MID WEEK WILL KEEP MODERATE RAIN CHANCES ALIVE
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO
TRAVEL ACROSS THE GULF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST IS FOR A
SHORT FUSE ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO COVER NEAR 20 KT SUSTAINED
SATURDAY MORNING WINDS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  82  63  79  64 /  10  10  10  50  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  83  64  80  66 /  10  10  10  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  77  66  76  68 /  10  10  10  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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