Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 111429
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
929 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY DAY IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE AND DISCUSSIONS
BELOW LOOK GOOD...SO NO MORNING UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
42

.CLIMATE...
YEAR TO DATE (1/1 THRU 4/10) RAINFALL DEFICITS ARE...

CLL - 5.70 INCHES
IAH - 5.16 INCHES
HOU - 5.79 INCHES
GLS - 6.07 INCHES

42
&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SCT-BKN MVFR DECK ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FILL IN AS AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS TRANSITS THE REGION.
EXPECT THAT SITES WHICH DO BECOME MVFR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID
MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MVFR
CIGS LOOK LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAF WITH THIS ISSUANCE. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA IN
THE PAC WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING INTO THE PAC NW. THE
UPPER LOW LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE S ROCKIES THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH THE SECOND SHORT WAVE ON ITS HEALS. AT THE SFC...WEAK
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS W TX TO OKLA AND THEN PUSH BACK
NORTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GULF MOISTURE IS SLOWLY RETURNING AS
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN CLIMBING THROUGH THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOW
60S. ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MOISTEN
BEFORE SUPPORTING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER
THE AREA AND LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS SCT ACROSS THE AREA.
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE S ROCKIES NOW PULLS INTO THE PLAINS AT
00Z MON OR SUNDAY EVENING. BEST LIFT FROM PVA LOOKS TO BE OVER N
TX AND OKLA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SMALL CHANCE THE CAP
COULD ERODE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON. THIS IS
STILL 3 DAYS OUT BUT SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS MAY BE COMING
TOGETHER FOR AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES NAMELY A
SQUALL LINE. THE LAST COUPLE OF NAM RUNS HINT AT THIS IDEA
ALREADY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS ALONG WITH SOME
MODERATE INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE 40-50KTS SO STORMS
SHOULD BE ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE HAIL/DAMAGE WIND THREAT FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...WILL
NEED STRONG ENOUGH LIFT TO OVERCOME THE CAP LATE SUNDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS
SHOWING A BRIEFLY INTENSE BAND OF STORMS. STORMS MAY FIRE ALONG
ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MON MORNING AND PUSH EAST. DECIDED
TO LEAVE SOME RAIN CHANCES MON INTO TUE AS SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES
TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS AND THEN INTO TX ON TUE. POSSIBLE TO GET
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY TUE.

ONCE SHORTWAVE PASSES THERE SHOULD BE STRONG COLD ADVECTION
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE ECMWF 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND
FREEZING AS FAR SOUTH AS HOUSTON BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. GFS STILL
HAS STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT NOT NEARLY THAT STRONG. MAX TEMPS IN
THE 60S LOOKS ON TRACK. SOUTHERLY WINDS FINALLY DEVELOP AGAIN FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

39

MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SCEC CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. ADVISORIES
ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  65  80  68  78 /   0  10  10  20  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  64  80  68  79 /   0  10  10  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  67  75  70  76 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23



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