Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 240217
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
817 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND AT 8 PM WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR PALESTINE TO
LA GRANGE. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS TO POSSIBLY 15 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
OVERALL SE TX TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CIGS THE NEXT 24 HRS.
WINDS WILL BE CHANGING DIRECTION TONIGHT. OVERALL SW WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT OVER N TX SHOULD PUSH INTO THE
AREA. FRONT SHOULD REACH KCLL/KUTS/KCXO AROUND 04-05Z
..KIAH/KHOU/KSGR AROUND 05-06Z AND THE COAST AROUND 06Z-07Z.
THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH THE FRONT
EXCEPT FOR KGLS/KLBX. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER HAS SETTLED IN OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEHIND
YESTERDAY/S STORM SYSTEM WITH CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80 AS OF 3 PM AND GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS AFTERNOON/S WINDS HAVE
BEEN COURTESY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EJECTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A
FORT SUMNER /NM/ TO FLOYDADA /TX/ TO STILLWATER /OK/ LINE AS OF 3
PM. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING
DOMINATING THE CONUS...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF SAID TROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING
AND OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE HAS NOT HAD A CHANCE TO RECOVER...EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND
10-15 MPH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TOWARDS THE AREA. HIGHS MONDAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE COOLEST LOW TEMPERATURES
OF THE WEEK IN THE 30S INLAND AND 40S ALONG THE COAST WON/T BE
REALIZED UNTIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA AS IT DOES AND BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF
TRY TO BREAK OUT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH THE
TROUGH/S PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
STILL BE SCANT SO THINK THAT ANY QPF GENERATED INLAND IS
OVERDONE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL TRANSPORT ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC TO BRING SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA ON TUESDAY REMAINS DRY.

BY MID-WEEK...TEMPERATURES BEGIN A WARMING TREND WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE. THE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING IS
DEFINITELY ONE TO GIVE THANKS FOR... WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS
TOPPING OUT NEAR 70. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN SLIDING EAST ON
THANKSGIVING AND LEE SURFACE TROUGHING THURSDAY/FRIDAY WILL NOT
ONLY ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION BUT HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE
THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE FORECAST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA APPROACHING 13 TO 15 DEGREES C.

QUASIZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY SATURDAY...BUT THE ECMWF
AND GFS DISAGREE A BIT ON THE SOLUTION FOR WHAT WILL HAPPEN
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS SAGS A FRONT INTO NORTH
TEXAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT HUNG UP OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. CURIOUSLY ENOUGH...BOTH MODELS INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT FOR SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT REASONS. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT A
FLATTENED UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS DOES NOT
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT VERY FAR SOUTH. STILL A
FEW DAYS FOR MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND KEEPING POPS
BELOW MENTION AT THE MOMENT...BUT A WAA SCENARIO /WHICH IS WHAT
THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING/ SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE CAUTION FLAGS UP FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS MIGHT COME DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
BUT BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CAUTION TO LOW END ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THAT SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT COULD PERSIST INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WEAKER NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL
PERSIST FROM THAT DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. MARINERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY CAN EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS NEARSHORE AND
2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      44  64  39  63  36 /   0   0   0  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              50  67  41  65  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            54  65  50  63  48 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39


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