Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 180456
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A BORDER LINE MVFR/ VFR CLOUD DECK FORMING
TOWARDS OUR SOUTHWEST WHICH HAVE TO HAVE AN EYE KEPT ON. MAIN
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT KLBX IS NOW ZERO WHILE OTHER RURAL
SITES ALSO SHOWING TEMPERATURE/ DEWPOINT GAP NARROWING. A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO SLOWLY HEADED TO THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING. WINDS NEAR THE FRONT ARE VERY LIGHT. THIS WILL ONLY AID
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. RAP AND NEW NAM SHOWING
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN ONE DEGREE NEAR THE FRONT TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD BE QUICK TO BURN OFF AS THE SUN RISES
THOUGH. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 01Z SHOWED LIGHT...SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX. ADDITIONALLY... A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
FROM ROUGHLY CARLSBAD...NM TO SONORA TO NEAR THE D/FW METROPLEX.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE THE FRONT/S PATH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...ENTERING THE NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 12Z.
INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST WAS EVIDENT ON
TONIGHT/S 00Z SOUNDINGS WITH KCRP/S AND KLCH/S PWAT VALUES NOW
CLOSER TO NORMAL...AS OPPOSED TO THE 25 PERCENT TO TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL LAST NIGHT/S 00Z RAOBS REPORTED. SHALLOW
GROUND FOG DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE PAST TWO MORNINGS. GIVEN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM ONSHORE FLOW AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
TOMORROW MORNING/S FRONT...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA. ADDITIONAL TWEAKS WERE
MADE TO WIND GRIDS... BUT REMAINDER OF FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  63  85  62  82 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  64  86  63  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  71  83  69  81 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...23


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