Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 171012
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
512 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR 3 HIGHER. TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NORTH TEXAS TODAY AS UPPER JET DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GULF SHEAR AXIS. ALL OF WHICH IS A
GOOD INDICATION THAT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OCCURRING TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE 10A-6P WINDOW. 6-9AM EXPECT MAINLY
JUST SHOWERS IN THE GULF AND BRAZORIA/GALVESTON/CHAMBERS COUNTIES.
HEAT INDEX READINGS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON FREQUENTLY RANGED FROM
100-105 INLAND...(106-108 AT GLS). WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE THIS
WILL LIKELY REPEAT TODAY ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH WITH THE WINDS A
LITTLE STRONGER GALVESTON MAY GET A BIT MORE MIXING AND LIMIT THE
HIGH TO 91-92 BUT CAN`T RULE OUT 107-108 AGAIN AT GALVESTON THOUGH
105 WILL BE IN EASY REACH. A GOOD IDEA TO STAY HYDRATED AND LIMIT
EXPOSURE TO THE SUN NEAR THE COAST TODAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD STILL HAVE AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND AS UPPER TROUGH KEEPS MARCHING EAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY THE TAIL END HANGS UP JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
ON TUESDAY. LLJ SETS UP TO THE WEST AND IS STRONGER THAN TODAY AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION STILL QUITE POTENT WITH THE ADDITIONAL SLIGHT
COOLING ALOFT WE SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WEAKENS AND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS WESTWARD AND BUILDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE REGION WED THROUGH FRI LOWERING RAIN CHANCES AND WARMING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES UP THOUGH THE DEWPOINTS WILL PROBABLY COME
DOWN WITH THE DEEPER MIXING. 45


&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
WATERS THANKS TO THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. DUE TO THIS
HAVE ISSUED A SCEC FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD START TO COME DOWN THIS MORNING AND FALL BELOW SCEC CRITERIA
AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL AGAIN REACH CAUTION CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING THOUGH. ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  77  96  77  96 /  20  30  20   0  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              95  79  95  78  94 /  40  20  30   0  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  83  91  83  91 /  30  20  20   0  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...23


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