Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 251456
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
956 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THIS MORNING WITHIN A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE SEEN ON OBSERVATIONS
STRETCHING FROM MATAGORDA BAY EASTWARD TOWARDS PLATFORM KCRH
/ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF CAMERON...LA/. MAIN FORECAST UPDATE WAS
TO ADD ISOLATED RAIN MENTION TO COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. OTHERWISE... REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT AROUND 105 TO 108 IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

HUFFMAN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO HOT & DRY WX PERSISTING OVER THE
WEEKEND. AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10 WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-108 FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME COINCIDING W/ SEABREEZE & PEAK HEATING. REST OF
THE REGION HAS SEEN DEWPOINTS MIX OUT DURING THE AFTN AND SEE NO
REASON THAT WON`T CONTINUE.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IT DOES
SO...FLOW OVER SE TX WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN & TRANSITION TO THE
EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY AND/OR DISTURBANCES TO TRIGGER A FEW SHRA/TSRA. CHANCES
DON`T LOOK PARTICULARLY HIGH BUT AT LEAST IT`S NOT ZERO. SLIGHTLY
INCREASED MOISTURE/CLOUDS & MORE OF A SE WIND SHOULD AT LEAST KNOCK
A DEGREE OR THREE OFF HIGHS THOUGH.

RIDGE MEANDERS INTO THE SW STATES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AND THEN EXPANDS NORTHWARD. SUBSEQUENT DIGGING EASTERN TROF
LOOKS TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO SLIDE INTO THE STATE & QUITE POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF SE TX
FRI/SAT. BOTH GFS & ECMWF MOSTLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO.
HOPEFULLY IF AVAILABLE MOISTURE COOPERATES WE`LL SEE BETTER SHOTS
OF RAIN WITH BOTH SEABREEZE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING IN PLAY. 47

MARINE...
FCST WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THE MAIN WX FEATURE OVER THE REGION. LIGHT/MODERATE ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED SPEEDS DUR-
ING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY CAUTION FLAGS. 41

AVIATION...
WILL BE KEEPING WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE WITH
ONLY THE BRIEF MENTION OF MVFR VIS/CIGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS
FOR SOME SITES. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  75  99  76  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              98  78  99  79  98 /  10   0  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  82  92  82  91 /  10   0   0  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14



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