Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 261605
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1100 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
QUIET MORNING RADAR-WISE...BUT CERTAINLY MORE WARMER ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGIONS PER THE EARLY DAY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. UPPER 80F
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WITH UPPER 70F DEW POINTS ARE EQUATING
TO GREATER THAN 100F HEAT INDICES AT 10 AM. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
STRAY SHOWER OR LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE LOCAL
BREEZE. THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL NOT RECEIVE A DROP AS THE
REGION IS UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE OF THE NORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
CENTERED UPPER RIDGE.

IT WAS 35 YEARS AGO THIS WEEKEND THAT GREATER THAN 43 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL WITHIN A 24 HOUR PERIOD IN ALVIN DURING TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE.
THIS STILL STANDS AS THE GREATEST NORTH AMERICAN 24 HOUR RAINFALL IN
RECORDED HISTORY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AS WE LIE ON THE PERIPHERY
OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED INLAND DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
OFF TO THE WEST. WILL CARRY A MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR IAH AND POINTS NORTHWARD FOR NOW. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT QUITE AS MUCH CONVECTION THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY WITH ONLY
ONE SHOWER FORMING ON THE LAND BREEZE IN THE UPPER TX COASTAL
WATERS. HIGHER MOISTURE REMAINS JUST ALONG THE COAST WITH 00Z
LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWING ABOUT 2 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER.
CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER FARTHER INLAND. UPPER LEVEL 500MB ANALYSIS
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER S ROCKIES STRETCHING INTO THE N TX.
THINK SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE STRONGER TODAY INTO SUNDAY. THERE MAY
BE A STRAY OR ISO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TODAY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE.
CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT PUTTING IN THE
FORECAST AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE IN ACTIVITY IF ANY.

SYNOPTIC MODELS BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER N TX TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. RIDGE SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE IN THE
MID/UPPER 90S BUT DO NOT THINK THE CENTURY MARK WILL BE IN REACH.
HEAT INDEX VALUES HOWEVER SHOULD APPROACH 105 INSTEAD OF 101/102
LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL DROP SE TOWARDS LAKE
MICH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP BUILD THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.
BY MONDAY BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGE
FROM W TX INTO THE N ROCKIES. LOOK FOR NW FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
FOR THE RIDGE TO STAY WEST OF THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OR TWO TO WORK INTO THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE WED INTO THUR.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ALSO OPENS THE DOOR FOR A COLD FRONT TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. GFS/NAM/ECMWF AREA ALL PUSHING
THE FRONT INTO THE AREA FASTER THAN BEFORE AND STALLING IT ON TUE.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SCT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIP WATER VALUES OF OVER 2
INCHES REMAIN INVOF THE FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST WILL KEEP 20/30 POPS IN PLACE BEGINNING TUE. THERE IS
SOME DRIER AIR THAT MOVES INTO SE TX BEHIND THE FRONT SO SOME OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A DROP IN DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE.
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH IT UNDER NW
FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX LATE WED INTO THUR. WILL KEEP SOME 30
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THUR AND THEN 20 POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH MAY FURTHER BROADEN OVER THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL EASE
SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              96  77  96  76  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  81  92  81  91 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31


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