Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 252056
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
356 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Not a whole lot was changed from the previous forecast. Easterly
flow over the northern Gulf is pushing higher PWs into SE TX.
Additionally, a series of disturbances will ride underneath the
ridge currently over the SE CONUS, bringing waves of showers and
thunderstorms to SE TX beginning tomorrow and lasting through
early next week. One of the disturbances may get hung up over the
northwestern Gulf later this weekend, and could facilitate the
development of a surface low just offshore before drifting
southwestward on Mon/Tues. These disturbances may bring locally
heavy rainfall to portions of SE TX, primarily along the coast.
Have capped PoPs at 50% after tomorrow, but these may be nudged
upward if models stick with this current trend. A drier pattern
emerges for the middle of next week as the last disturbance
finally exits the area. 11

.TROPICS...
Although Invest 99L has become less organized over the past 24
hours, it still has a chance to become a tropical depression or
storm over the next several days. Southeast Texans should continue
to monitor the progress of this system as it may enter the Gulf of
Mexico early next week. As of 2 PM, the National Hurricane Center
has given Invest 99L a medium (40%) chance of development over the
next 48 hours and a high (70%) chance of development over the next
5 days. 11

&&

.MARINE...
No significant changes with the marine forecast with this package.
High pressure over the eastern U.S. and lower pressure over in the
SW Gulf will produce a mostly light east flow through the weekend.
This persistent easterly fetch should produce some slightly eleva-
ted tides over the weekend.

Otherwise, we are still keeping an eye on the area of low pressure
that is forecast to enter the E/SERN Gulf during the early part of
next week. There is still uncertainty with regard to the movement/
intensity of this feature at this time. Mariners are urged to keep
up the latest forecast. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      74  89  74  90  74 /  20  50  20  30  10
Houston (IAH)              75  89  75  90  75 /  30  60  20  40  30
Galveston (GLS)            79  88  79  87  79 /  50  60  30  50  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...11
Aviation/Marine...41



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