Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 281113
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
613 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
THE UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS MOVING OVER SE TX THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO AFFECT MAINLY THE COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE HOUSTON SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THERE IS ALSO
THE CHANCE FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE INLAND
SITES OUTSIDE OF KHOU AND KIAH DUE MAINLY TO PATCHY FOG.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 2 AM...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED EAST OF BROWNSVILLE WITH
SURFACE RIDING INTO TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST. AT 850 MB...A WEAK
LOW WAS NOTED EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TO ABUNDANT 850 MSTR ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. 700 MB MOISTURE WAS ABUNDANT OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A
WELL DEFINED TROUGH AXIS FROM SE OK TO THE MATAGORDA BAY REGION.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WAS PRODUCING PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT
RAIN. AT 250 MB...A DEEP UPPER LOW WAS OVER IOWA WITH A WELL
DEFINED TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST. FCST SOUNDINGS KEEP PW VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER VALUES CLOSER TO THE
COAST. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE 700 MB
TROUGH AXIS BUT AM HESITANT TO PULL POPS NEAR THE COAST AS LIFT
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST
SOME LIGHT RAIN GOING ACROSS THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE
HRRR HAS PERFORMED WELL AND IT ALSO SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING NEAR THE COAST. ON MONDAY...PW VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1.3
INCHES OVER THE NW ZONES BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.7-1.8 INCHES NEAR
THE COAST. SUBTLE TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST AS WELL...
SO FEEL IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE MENTIONING SOME LIGHT RAIN. A WEAK
VORT LOBE AND ANOTHER SUBTLE 500 MB WEAKNESS MOVE ACROSS EAST
TEXAS ON TUESDAY SO AGAIN FEEL 20 POPS ARE WARRANTED NEAR THE
COAST. AT THIS TIME WEAK RIDGING AND LOWER PW VALUES SHOULD KEEP
WEDNESDAY DRY AND WARM.

MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. THE GFS...ECMWF AND
CANADIAN SEEM TO AGREE ON TIMING WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE NW
ZONES ABOUT 12Z AND RACING OFF THE COAST BY 18Z. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ARE BULLISH WITH QPF WHILE THE GFS IS MORE BENIGN. NOT
IMPRESSED WITH JET DYNAMICS AS THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON A
STRONG RRQ. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FASTER AND IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
THE GFS SO AM LEANING A BIT TOWARD THE FASTER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
GFS SOLUTION. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS ABSOLUTELY FANTASTIC WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND MILD AUTUMN TEMPERATURES. 43

MARINE...
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.
EASTERLY WINDS AND SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
KEEP SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS IN PLACE INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THESE SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH IS NOW
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      88  69  91  70  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  70  89  71  89 /  20  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  74  83  76  83 /  20  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40



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