Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 240450
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1150 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
SAME PHILOSOPHY AS WITH THE 00Z ISSUANCE. DOMINANT MVFR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING DECKS...AROUND SUNRISE WINDOW OF UNDULATION INTO
BRIEF IFR. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE SW FLOW
WILL INTRODUCE POSSIBLY TWO PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION....MORNING
SHOWERS WITH A HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING LOWERED DECKS TO MVFR...MAYBE NEAR
IFR...WITH LINGERING CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST VCSH
TO END PERIOD. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST PACKAGE IS IN GOOD SHAPE (REFER TO DISCUSSIONS BELOW FOR
ALL THE DETAILS).  42

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
NICE SWATH OF PACIFIC-BASED HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OVER
THE STATE TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE BACK UP
THROUGH LATE EVENING. AREAWIDE MVFR DECKS FORECAST TO RETURN BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS. INCREASED PROBS FOR
THE EASTERN ADVECTION OF CENTRAL TEXAS SHOWERS...OR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WESTERN FORECAST AREA SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
FRIDAY AM SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. LOWERING TEXAS PANHANDLE PRESSURES
.WITH THE EXISTENCE OF A STRONGER LL JET...WILL STRENGTHEN ONSHORE
WINDS TO AROUND 15-18 KTS FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD INTO WARMTH OF
DAY. AN EARLY DAY MID-LEVEL STABLE WARM NOSE WILL LIKELY EXIST AND
SUPPRESS EARLY DAY THUNDER/AREAWIDE PRECIP...JUST UNDER-THE-CAP
SHOWER ACTIVITY STREAMING NORTH THROUGH NOON ACROSS MOST AIR FIELDS.
THIS FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR VCTS...OR A PROB30
FOR TERMINAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OR
WHEN THE TWO ELEMENTS OF A WEAKENED CAP AND A VICINITY NORTHERN
TEXAS SURFACE BOUNDARY LINE UP WITHIN A VERY MOISTENED RESIDENT AIR
MASS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL OCCUR OVER THE MORE
INTERIOR HUBS NORTH OF KCXO...WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR SIG CONVECTION
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE STABILITY (CAPPING) MAY HOLD OUT LONGER. A
MODERATE CHANCE FOR LOWERING DECKS BACK TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BEYOND THIS TAF`S TIME FRAME...EARLY
SATURDAY`S THUNDER/PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN LIFT AS EASTERN TEXAS FALLS
UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A POSSIBLE NEAR-
COASTAL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE. 31

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS SO FAR THIS AFTN...THE CAP APPEARS TO BE
HOLDING EVEN AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. NORTHERN
AREA OF OUR CWA ONLY SEEING SOME ISO/WIDELY SCT SHRA. HOWEVER WE
ARE STILL LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE ACTIVE WX FOR TOMORROW ON INTO
EARLY SAT. WE ARE LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS TOMORROW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF (AND ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES) FROM
THE WEST. DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY VERY FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
.ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A WEAKENED CAP. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
START TO OUR WEST DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS THEN EVENTUALLY PROGRESSING
INTO SE TX FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF
SEVERE IN OUR GRIDS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREATS.

EVEN AS THE MAIN TROF MOVES OFF TO THE NE...CHC POPS COULD LINGER
FOR SAT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA (EMBEDDED IN
THE PREVAILING SW FLOW ALOFT). SUN LOOKS TO BE THE SHORT BREAK IN
BETWEEN EVENTS AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DIGS/DEEPENS AROUND THE FOUR
CORNERS. THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FCST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MON AFTN/NIGHT...ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. AHH SPRING. 41

&&

MARINE...
VERY LIGHT WINDS ONGOING OVER THE WATERS NOW BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE TONIGHT BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. SLOW BUILDING OF
SEAS FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST IF IT ISN`T TOO CAPPED. ANOTHER SYSTEM SATURDAY
MORNING MAY FOCUS STORMS NORTH OVER THE SETX AREAS. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND LOOKS TO BRING A LINE
OF STRONG STORMS INTO THE AREA OF THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
MODERATE NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WARRANT SCA
FLAGS. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  84  70  87  67 /  30  50  50  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  84  72  87  70 /  20  50  50  50  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  79  73  79  73 /  20  40  40  50  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31


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