Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KHGX 121141
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
641 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS LIES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AREA TERMINALS
THIS MORNING ALLOWING MVFR CIGS TO SLOWLY LOWER TO IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EXPECT CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT SCATTER OUT UNTIL LATE MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CIGS WILL FILL
BACK IN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY
IFR CIGS FOR SITES NORTH OF THE METRO AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY BUT
ELSEWHERE HAVE KEPT MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS. THIS
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF PACKAGES. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS FROM MIDNIGHT HAD MOISTURE AXIS WORKING THROUGH SE
TX INTO N TX AND C OKLA. WEAK SFC LOW WAS LOCATED IN SE CO WITH
SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM
00Z SHOWED AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF COAST OF CALIFORNIA WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE PAC NW. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL
PLAY A FUTURE ROLE IN THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AND MONDAY.
OVERALL SHOULD HAVE A QUIET BUT HUMID/BREEZY DAY FOR SATURDAY. MAX
TEMPS AROUND 80 LOOK ON TRACK LIKE YESTERDAY.

UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
SHEAR OUT ON SUNDAY OVER THE PLAINS. THERE STILL WILL BE A STRONG
JET STREAK AT 300 MB THAT WILL MOVE OVER TX WITH THE NOSE OF THE
JET BENDING INTO E OKLA. SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER THE PAC NW WILL
THEN DIVE SOUTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST IN A SLIGHT RISK...MAINLY NORTH OF
HOUSTON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPPING IN PLACE ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE KEY WILL BE BREAKING
THROUGH THE CAP. JET STREAK CONFIGURATION IS NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR
LIFT SO THINK CAPPING WILL LIKELY HOLD. JET STREAK DYNAMICS BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT ON MONDAY AS SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS. THINK CAPPING WILL ERODE MONDAY WITH LIFT FROM THE JET
AND A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION. KEPT MAINLY 30/40 POPS
FOR SUNDAY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM CALDWELL TO CROCKETT.
INCREASED CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT ON MONDAY WITH REALLY
NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOWING DECENT QPF FOR THE DAY. COULD SEE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES AS CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE FORECAST. SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT LOOKS SMALL FOR THE AREA. CAPPING SHOULD HOLD ON SUNDAY BUT
STILL A SMALL THREAT FOR THE MADISONVILLE TO CROCKETT AREAS. WITH
THE CAP ERODING MONDAY...MAY GET SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS MAINLY SUPPORT A SQUALL LINE OF
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST.

COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN COLDER AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG AS EXPECT 850MB FREEZING
LINE TO REACH A COLLEGE STATION TO CROCKETT LINE TUE MORNING. MAX
TEMPS MAY REACH THE UPPER 60S TUE/WED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSES THE AREA TUE MORNING AND ENFORCING THE FRONT. WED MORNING
COULD BE QUITE COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE AREA
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF SETS UP
THUR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GFS THEN BRINGS IN ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE INTO THE ROCKIES
WHERE THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. GFS
HAS POTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS FOR THUR BUT ECMWF HAS NOT
DEVELOPED ANYTHING. THINK ECMWF IS MORE ON TRACK AS THERE IS MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS MAY BE ON A NEW TREND BUT PATTERN IS
RATHER UNCERTAIN. WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WILL
BE SOME MOISTURE RETURN. KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO GFS NUMBERS BUT MAYBE
A TOUCH COOLER SINCE ECMWF HAS BEEN HANDLING TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WELL. IN GENERAL THERE REALLY WAS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

39

MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. SCEC CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE REACHED LATE TODAY OR
EARLY SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. THE NEXT
FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING STRONG
WINDS OVER THE WATERS IN ITS WAKE. ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND STRONGER WITH POST FRONTAL
WINDS. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  65  79  65  65 /  10  20  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  66  78  70  71 /  10  10  30  40  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  68  75  70  70 /  10  10  20  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.