Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 220458

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

Storms may finally be dissipating southeast of LVJ-LBX! Boundaries
now just offshore may become a focus for storms early this
morning. Atmosphere is going to be uncapped and very unstable with
CAPE OF 2500-3900J/KG during the afternoon. Strong to severe
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and visby restrictions. Will
introduce vcsh/vcts by 10-16z (first near the coast)spreading
inland) and then blanket with tempo TSRA 15-22Z. Storm motions
will likely be forced by meso- boundaries and tilted back toward
the coast with increasing NW flow aloft. Storms should gradually
dissipate in the evening.



A lot more active this evening than previously thought...but it
does look like things are trying to finally wind down. A couple
of more boundary collisions (mainly over Brazoria/Galveston/SRN
Harris counties) expected but the overall radar trends are show-
ing a downward trend in intensity. These boundaries could still
be around for no changes with the chance POPS cur-
rently in the grids. 41


Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed across Southeast
Texas today, some of which became strong with the most intense
cell passing right over Hempstead. Radar indicated very large hail
with this cell, but have yet to hear or see anything larger than
penny size. Locally heavy rainfall has accompanied this activity
with radar indicating several spots getting 2 to 4 inches
in/around our northwest counties. More activity is developing
between Houston and the Matagorda Bay area. Models have not done
very well with today`s coverage, and this does not give much
confidence in this forecast package. That said, looking for
moisture levels to remain high for the rest of the weekend and the
start of the new week. Scattered (mainly daytime?) showers and
thunderstorms are possible each day, and the stronger activity
could pulse to strong/severe levels tomorrow and Monday along with
a threat of locally heavy rainfall where any training develops.
Still anticipating warming temperatures next week outside of the
storms and strengthening south to southeast winds under a
tightening pressure gradient set up between surface high pressure
off to our east and as a series of surface lows forming in the lee
of the Rockies. With Texas troughing taking shape toward the end
of the week, will continue to show increasing rain chances on
Thursday and Friday as we officially kick in the start of June and
the 2016 Hurricane Season. It`s only a matter of time before we
start talking about summer heat, so enjoy this weather pattern
while you can. 42


College Station (CLL)      71  85  71  85  72 /  30  40  10  40  20
Houston (IAH)              72  86  72  87  74 /  40  40  10  40  10
Galveston (GLS)            75  84  76  84  78 /  40  30  10  30  10




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