Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 200221
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
921 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Other than some pesky showers popping up early this evening (one
shower currently passing just west of IAH airport)...the radar has
died out with the setting sun. A similar pattern can be expected
tomorrow as eastern Texas falls under the relatively weaker southeastern
belly of the gargantuan 600 dam ridge centered over the Four Corners.
Tonight`s lessened moisture moving in on southeasterly steering
flow...or in the wake of today`s convection...will be followed by
a surge of higher gulf moisture during Monday`s peak heating. Morning
offshore scattered shower and storm activity may begin to advance
onshore shortly after sunrise...with further inland -TSRA development
occurring in the vicinity of sea/bay breeze boundary past noon...or
once the upper 80s are achieved. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
Isolated shra/tsra should dissipate toward sunset with the loss of
heating. Otherwise...mostly VFR overnight. Previous TAFs
remain on track with advertising sct precip developing along the
coast before sunrise & spreading inland during the late morning &
afternoon hours (much like today). VFR conditions & light winds
outside of any convection.  47

PREV DISCUSSION...
Radar trends show band of showers and few thunderstorms lifting
north across the central zones. Environment somewhat less
favorable farther north...and not the upper support or degree of
instability we had last evening...so think this activity should
dissipate after sunset.

For Monday model soundings again somewhat unstable. Moisture a
little deeper than today...as indicated by higher precipitable
water. Instability again somewhat better over southern half of
forecast area. Not a whole lot of synoptic forcing with ridging
at surface and aloft. All in all think well see a similar
scenario as today with scattered tstrms developing midday and
progressing slowly upward during the afternoon. Storm type again
clearly pulse with very weak shear through the column. Some heavy
downpours of rain and modest wind gusts would be possible...but
overall severe threat should be minimal.

Tuesday and Wednesday...should see decreasing rain chances with
some lingering thunderstorm chances Tuesday...and likely a very
warm...humid but mainly rain free day on Wednesday as ridge builds
aloft.

Upper high flattens out over the area again by Thursday and
Friday with again some precip chances as models show disturbance
moving along southern flank of upper high into the Texas coast
Thursday night and Friday. 18

MARINE...
Upper TX coastal waters quiet now with light winds of around 5
knots. Overnight expect winds to increase this evening to around 10
knots and may reach 10-15 knots for a few hours around midnight.
Seas gradually building tonight and Monday then as the developing
tropical wave in the SW Gulf moves toward Mexico expect moisture to
overspread the region and lead to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. May get a bump on winds and seas if it gets much more
organized and becomes a tropical depression/storm overnight. Ridging
over the state Tuesday should keep winds more easterly and relax as
last swath of moisture slides west through the area and should give
the coastal waters another shot of storms. Southeasterly flow
resumes Tuesday night and increases as high pressure retreats to the
east and gradient tightens over S TX. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      75  92  75  92  74 /  10  30  30  20  10
Houston (IAH)              76  92  76  91  75 /  10  40  20  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            81  87  82  88  80 /  20  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...31



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