Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 300117
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
817 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS SLOWLY RELAXING AND LOOSING THE GUSTY NATURE AND SKIES
CLEARING RAPIDLY. A FEW CLOUDS STILL LINGERING IN THE COASTAL
AREAS NEAR LBX/SGR. AS LLJ REDEVELOPS TONIGHT (THOUGH FURTHER
WEST) OVER THE PSX/66R/CLL AREAS. LLWS OF 30-35KTS AGAIN TONIGHT
THERE IN THE VCNTY OF CLL AND UTS BUT RELAXING OVERNIGHT BY
08-10Z. LL HAVE MOISTENED UP AND WITH THE INVERSION IN PLACE.
STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AREAS
AND EXPAND NORTHEAST AND EAST UP THE COAST. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT MOST SITES FROM 09Z ON...EARLIER IN THE WEST. STRONG
INVERSION AND LIGHTER SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A ST DECK LASTING
THROUGH 16Z. VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR REDEVELOPING AFTER 04Z
TUESDAY.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM OKC TO AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR MIDLAND. THERE IS A 10 MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS AND THIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG WINDS
THIS AFTN. AM EXPECTING CLOUDS TO INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO
STALL NORTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DEEPEN ON MONDAY AND
PW VALUES WILL REACH 1.3 INCHES OVER THE NORTH AND 1.1 INCHES
SOUTH. FCST SOUNDINGS REVEAL VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB AND NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION. STILL THE PROXIMITY OF
THE WEAK BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD YIELD
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH ON MONDAY. LOWERED POPS ON TUESDAY AS
PW VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN AN INCH AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
EXTREMELY DRY AIR AT 850 MB AND MORE DRY AIR NEAR 700 MB. MSTR
TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG CAP WILL PROBABLY LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TUES NITE AND APPROACH SE TX ON
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WHILE THE GFS/NAM ARE DRY. THE EC/CAN ARE SHARPER WITH
THE TROUGH AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE GFS IS FLATTER AND FURTHER
NORTH. NOT SURE HOW THIS WILL EVENTUALLY PLAY OUT AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BOTH SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE JET
DYNAMICS OF THE ECMWF LOOK TO BE TRENDING CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLN
TODAY BUT MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE NAM ARE TRENDING CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE ON WEDNESDAY SO
FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO LEAVE THE GRIDS AS IS AND
WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENCY.

THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DIFFER A BIT WITH TIMING ON THE NEXT FRONT
WHICH WILL CROSS THE COAST NEXT FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. THE
EC IS NOW ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW...JUST
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH REGARD TO TIMING. THE FRONT SHOULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER MEXICO NEXT WEEKEND AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SCOOT EAST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF SE TX. 43

MARINE...
TODAY`S FAIRLY TIGHT ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS EASTERN BASED HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
FURTHER WEST INTO THE REGION. CAUTION CRITERIA OVER THE WESTERN
OFFSHORE WATERS AS WINDS STAY AT OR AROUND 15 KNOTS...SEAS REMAIN
NEAR THE 5 FOOT MARK THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A WEEK OF ONSHORE
FLOW BEFORE A WEEKEND FRONT BACKS WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH(EAST).
MID WEEK RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL HIGH IN ANTICIPATION OF THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  79  62  79  63 /  10  20  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  81  63  81  64 /  10  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  76  66  76  66 /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45


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