Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 181746
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1246 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AT MIDDAY. EXPECT A BIT MORE COVERAGE
THAN OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD WAS
SUPPLYING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CAP ERODED
DURING THE LATE MORNING. THERE WERE ALSO WEAK SHORTWAVES FORECAST
BY THE NAM12 TO MOVE OVERHEAD. WITH THIS IN MIND...WENT WITH
VICINITY SHOWERS EARLY AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 20 TO 22Z.
THESE SHOULD END BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND
15Z. FOR NOW EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST. THE MODELS WERE HINTING AT
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT THE SAME AS THIS TIME TDAY AND UPPER PATTERN
ISN`T ALL THAT MUCH DIFFERENT. PW`S STARTING OUT LOWER...BUT
LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS IT RECOVERS BACK TO ~1.9" LATER IN THE
AFTN. ISO/SCT SHRA ALONG THE COAST WILL TRANSITION INLAND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL...WX SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YDAY. JUST
MINOR TWEAKS TO 1ST PD GRIDS FOR THE UPDATE. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  77  98  77  98 /  30  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  78  96  77  97 /  30   0  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            94  83  92  81  92 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40



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