Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 010213
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
913 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN NOW WELL WEST OF THE AREA AS DEEPER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OUT
AS INDICTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM
LCH AND CRP SHOW THE CONTRAST WITH PWAT OF 1.18 IN AT LCH AND
2.27 IN AT CRP! THIS DRIER AIR MASS IN THE MEAN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION TONIGHT WOULD BE OVER THE COASTAL GULF WATERS AND NEAR
THE COAST WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE STILL HIGH...AND SW ZONES
WHERE PRECIPTABLE WATERS HIGHER...BUT EVEN THERE NO MORE THAN A 20
POP OF A SHOWER IS CALLED FOR EVEN THERE. ELSEHWERE...POPS IN THE
ZERO TO 10 PCT RANGE.

FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKING FOR CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES UP NEAR THE CENTURY MARK AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
WITH A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY...WITH DEWPOINTS AWAY FROM THE WATER MAINLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S VERSUS THE 70S THAT WEVE HAD. DR

46

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR JULY 2015
HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL (IAH) RECORDED THEIR 7TH WARMEST JULY ON
RECORD (86.1 DEGREES) AND THEIR 4TH DRIEST JULY ON RECORD (0.61
INCHES).

HOUSTON HOBBY (HOU) RECORDED THEIR 5TH WARMEST JULY ON RECORD
(86.0 DEGREES).

GALVESTON (GLS) RECORDED THEIR 3RD WARMEST JULY ON RECORD (86.6
DEGREES) AND THEIR 7TH DRIEST JULY ON RECORD (0.23 INCHES).

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GLS WHERE
SMOKE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM A PRESCRIBED BURN OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST NEAR HIGH ISLAND. EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING TO UNDER
5 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER SPEEDS AT GLS. COULD SEE SOME CIRRUS MOVE INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH MAINLY NORTHEAST
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SE TEXAS AT 3 PM.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM SOUTH OF COLUMBUS TO NEAR ANGLETON. EXPECT THESE TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THE MODELS KEEP A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OVER THE INLAND AREAS...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE STATE. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE WILL ALSO FILTER INTO
THE AREA AND LOWER THE DAILY HEAT INDICES...ALTHOUGH THE DOWNSIDE
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS GOING WITH AROUND 100 DEGREE HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THE MEX IS CONTINUING THE SAME THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN...WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE
THROUGH 7 PM FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
SOUNDING PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED V IN THE LOW LEVELS...
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WILL CONTINUE THE NEAR 100 DEGREE DAYS. ALSO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

40

MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE
MODERATE NE WINDS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. ONSHORE WINDS AND MOISTURE
WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  99  74  99  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  99  75 100  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  97  81  96  81 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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