Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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310
FXUS64 KHGX 172356
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
556 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018


.AVIATION...
A weak front extended from about Liberty to downtown Houston and
then along the I-69 corridor to about Edna. Showers were beginning
to develop along this feature. Short term guidance shows the
boundary remaining nearly stationary and gradually becoming
diffuse. Low ceilings expected to develop areawide as deep mstr
builds beneath a capping inversion. LIFR/IFR cigs expected late
tonight into Sunday morning with a gradual improvement to MVFR by
afternoon. Sea fog will be an issue along the coast and visibility
will fall below a mile at times at KGLS and probably KLBX. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers that developed along the stalled surface boundary
over the coastal counties is continuing to move off to the E this
afternoon while the activity approaching from NC TX appears to be
weakening as it nears the area. Otherwise, we are seeing a few
more breaks in the overcast clouds in between these systems.
Slightly less active weather is expected tomorrow as the frontal
boundary continues to weaken and high pressure becomes more
prominent. Sea fog should return to the bays overnight/tomorrow.

Looking ahead, this rather wet/unsettled pattern of late is progged
to continue as the subtropical jet remains a dominant feature for
SE TX. The persistent upper troffing to our west should allow for
a series of disturbances to move across the region these next
several days. And with the onshore flow staying in place, we will
likely keep at least low rain chances in the forecast as the baseline...
then increasing them with the passage of these shortwaves. One is
timed for Weds along with PWs ranging from 1.5" - 1.7" for this
same timeframe. Did go with likely POPS but holding off with the
mention of heavy rain for now. 41

MARINE...
A Dense Fog Advisory is currently in effect for the nearshore waters
until 18Z Sunday. Both Matagorda and Galveston Bay saw improvement
in visibilities throughout the day as the fog bank retreated, but
expect the return of lowered visibilities this evening. A Dense Fog
Advisory will likely be needed for both bays tonight. The
development of sea fog, especially within the nearshore waters will
be possible through the middle of next week.

Southwesterly winds will turn southeasterly overnight, and which
should also help with the development of sea fog. Sea heights will
remain between 2 to 3 feet through the weekend before increasing to
4 to 6 feet Monday into Tuesday. Wind speeds will pick up as the
pressure gradient tights, and SCEC criteria will likely be needed in
the Gulf waters. The next front is expected to move into SE TX on
Wednesday, but based off the disagreement in model guidance, it is
still unclear whether this front will reach the coast. Trends in the
most recent model solutions reveal the possibility of this front
stalling out inland, which would keep the possibility of sea fog
development continuing through mid-week.

Hathaway

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      54  71  64  79  66 /  30  20  20  20  20
Houston (IAH)              57  74  65  78  67 /  30  20  20  20  10
Galveston (GLS)            62  71  64  73  66 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Sunday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM.

&&

$$



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